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Actinguy

CBS has Iowa, New Hampshire AND Nevada too close to call

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Per CBS polls released today.

IOWA:  Biden up by 3%
Biden 29%
Sanders 26%
Warren 18%
Buttigieg 7%
Harris 6%

NEW HAMPSHIRE: Warren up by 1%
Warren 27%
Biden 26%
Sanders 25%
Buttigieg 8%
Harris 7%

NEVADA: Sanders up by 2%
Sanders 29%
Biden 27%
Warren 18%
Harris 6%
Buttigieg 4%

SOUTH CAROLINA: Biden up by 25%
Biden 43%
Sanders 18%
Warren 14%
Harris 7%
Buttigieg 4%


My takeaways:

1)  Despite national polls consistently putting him well in front, it's entirely possible that Biden won't win a single state until SOUTH CAROLINA.

2)  Harris might have to wait until at LEAST Nevada just to have a 4th place finish.
 

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33 minutes ago, Actinguy said:

Per CBS polls released today.

IOWA:  Biden up by 3%
Biden 29%
Sanders 26%
Warren 18%
Buttigieg 7%
Harris 6%

NEW HAMPSHIRE: Warren up by 1%
Warren 27%
Biden 26%
Sanders 25%
Buttigieg 8%
Harris 7%

NEVADA: Sanders up by 2%
Sanders 29%
Biden 27%
Warren 18%
Harris 6%
Buttigieg 4%

SOUTH CAROLINA: Biden up by 25%
Biden 43%
Sanders 18%
Warren 14%
Harris 7%
Buttigieg 4%


My takeaways:

1)  Despite national polls consistently putting him well in front, it's entirely possible that Biden won't win a single state until SOUTH CAROLINA.

2)  Harris might have to wait until at LEAST Nevada just to have a 4th place finish.
 

1) scenario seems very possible. 2) Harris will drop out by then, I think. 

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If Biden maintains his less than 10 point lead then loses Iowa it might be over for him. Especially if he also loses New Hampshire, South Carolina wouldn't be able to save him.

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31 minutes ago, Harris/Ernst 2020 said:

If Biden maintains his less than 10 point lead then loses Iowa it might be over for him. Especially if he also loses New Hampshire, South Carolina wouldn't be able to save him.

It'd be interesting to see a Sanders Vs Warren Primary considering their relationship and similarity on policies. 

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11 hours ago, Harris/Ernst 2020 said:

If Biden maintains his less than 10 point lead then loses Iowa it might be over for him. Especially if he also loses New Hampshire, South Carolina wouldn't be able to save him.

That's the really interesting thing, in my mind.  What does South Carolina have that Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada don't have?

Black voters.

Black voters are backing Biden to an incredible degree, despite the fact the fact that he is running against multiple other candidates who are black.  

No candidate of either party has won the nomination without winning either Iowa or  New Hampshire since 1992 (when Bill Clinton declared himself "The Comeback Kid" for getting 2nd in NH).

Actually...no Democrat candidate has won the nomination since 1992 without winning New Hampshire, specifically.

But anyway, the question is...if say Sanders wins Iowa and Warren wins New Hampshire, and then Sanders wins Nevada....can Biden justify staying in when he was the clear front runner and we are 26 days into the primaries and he hasn't won a single state yet?

And if Biden does drop out...where do all of those black voters go?   

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1 minute ago, Actinguy said:

Actually...no Democrat candidate has won the nomination since 1992 without winning New Hampshire, specifically.

Won the nomination or won the presidency? Hillary Clinton lost New Hampshire and won the nomination?

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1 minute ago, Actinguy said:

the question is...if say Sanders wins Iowa and Warren wins New Hampshire, and then Sanders wins Nevada....can Biden justify staying in when he was the clear front runner and we are 26 days into the primaries and he hasn't won a single state yet?

And if Biden does drop out...where do all of those black voters go?   

To answer my own question, if I was advising Biden's campaign, I'd say you have to stay in until South Carolina.  Don't change a thing, keep going down your path.  You're guaranteed to win South Carolina, and that's a game-shifting narrative that the media will go crazy for, and then you cross your fingers for Super Tuesday.

If you're not top two after Super Tuesday, it's time to reassess.  But if you are top two, you stay in it the whole way.

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Just now, Hestia11 said:

Won the nomination or won the presidency? Hillary Clinton lost New Hampshire and won the nomination?

Good point, my mistake.  So we're back to "you have to win Iowa or New Hampshire", with 1992 Bill Clinton being the exception.

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1 hour ago, Hestia11 said:

Won the nomination or won the presidency? Hillary Clinton lost New Hampshire and won the nomination?

And in 2008 she won New Hampshire and lost the nomination

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6 hours ago, pilight said:

And in 2008 she won New Hampshire and lost the nomination

Yeah, apparently I just flat out needed more sleep today.  Got the New Hampshire thing all wrong from the start.

Still, the point remains -- since at least 1976, Bill Clinton is the only candidate of either party to win the nomination without winning Iowa or New Hampshire.

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I remember reading somewhere a few years ago that after the early states that whomever has the most delegates usually ends up winning that it's unlikely for anyone to overcome the delegate leader. Also If Biden drops out I think the black voters would spread to Warren, Sanders, and Harris if those three are still in. I've seen a few polls that show Pete at like 0% with black voters.

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1 minute ago, Harris/Ernst 2020 said:

I remember reading somewhere a few years ago that after the early states that whomever has the most delegates usually ends up winning that it's unlikely for anyone to overcome the delegate leader. Also If Biden drops out I think the black voters would spread to Warren, Sanders, and Harris if those three are still in. I've seen a few polls that show Pete at like 0% with black voters.

Those same polls show Bernie and Warren also do terrible with black voters.  

Biden's eating up almost ALL of the oxygen with black voters.  It's really remarkable.

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4 hours ago, Actinguy said:

Those same polls show Bernie and Warren also do terrible with black voters.  

Biden's eating up almost ALL of the oxygen with black voters.  It's really remarkable.

What? Sanders is doing pretty well among black voters, especially those who are young (Warren isn't, though). Everything I've seen has Sanders in second among black voters.

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/09/02/black-voters-sanders-biden-2020-1479234 has Sanders in second among black voters at 20%

http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/09/joe-biden-support-from-black-voters.html this article also states Sanders does best among younger black voters

https://morningconsult.com/2019/07/09/biden-still-leads-among-black-voters-but-his-support-is-softening/ has Sanders in second among black voters at 21%

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