vcczar 0 Report post Posted September 5 Here's the popular vote in the battleground states in the US House elections during the 2018 midterms. If Democrats replicate a high voter turnout, it could turn out looking something like this vs. Trump in 2020: Arizona: Dems win by 0.75 pts Colorado: Dems win by 10.5 pts Florida: Reps win by 5.25 pts Georgia: Reps win by 4.50 pts Iowa: Dems wins by 4.00 pts Maine at large: Dems win by 15 pts Maine's conservative district: Dems win by 1.5 pts Michigan: Dems win by 7.7 pts Minnesota: Dems win by 11.5 pts Nevada: Dems win by 5.5 pts New Hampshire: Dems win by 10.9 pts New Mexico: Dems win by 20.0 pts North Carolina: Reps win by 2.0 pts Ohio: Reps win by 4.75 pts Pennsylvania: Dems win by 10.25 pts Texas: Reps win by 3.40 pts Virginia: Dems win by 13.8 pts Wisconsin: Dems win by 7.7 pts This is how this map would replicate for 2020 if the victors in PV remain the same: https://www.270towin.com/maps/dQgyX I was going to do every state's numbers for 2008, 2010, 2012, 2014, 2016 (House and Pres), but I got other things I gotta do. Maybe in a month or so. Obviously, Trump isn't directly on the ballot in 2018, so that might effect some voter. Also House votes don't always translate to presidential votes. For instance, Obama won Florida in 2008 and 2012, but the GOP won the PV overwhelmingly in the House elections of those years (well, not so much 2008, but they still won). Thus, a 5pt PV advantage for GOP in the House in 2020 might translate to a Democratic win for the presidential ticket. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Actinguy 2 Report post Posted September 6 10 hours ago, vcczar said: If Democrats replicate a high voter turnout I’m reminded of a story my wife tells, of her middle school days. An undesired boy approached my wife’s friend and told her “If you were my girlfriend, we would have SEX.” To which my wife’s friend replied: Big “if”, buddy. Big, BIG “if.” I do expect record turnout for Democrats. I also expect record turnout for Republicans. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
vcczar 0 Report post Posted September 6 12 minutes ago, Actinguy said: I’m reminded of a story my wife tells, of her middle school days. An undesired boy approached my wife’s friend and told her “If you were my girlfriend, we would have SEX.” To which my wife’s friend replied: Big “if”, buddy. Big, BIG “if.” I do expect record turnout for Democrats. I also expect record turnout for Republicans. At some point I'm going to show the +'s for every election from 2008 to 2018 (House and President). I'm curious as to what your prediction is for Ohio's vote. I expect it to be GOP, nonetheless. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Actinguy 2 Report post Posted September 6 54 minutes ago, vcczar said: At some point I'm going to show the +'s for every election from 2008 to 2018 (House and President). I'm curious as to what your prediction is for Ohio's vote. I expect it to be GOP, nonetheless. If my neighborhood, which is otherwise an incredibly wonderful place to live, is any indication...Trump will triumph again. A huge Trump 2020 banner is already flying over one garage. Judging by the number of “lock her up” signs I saw last time, I expect the banner to soon have many friends. Not a single democrat sign up yet. Wife and I wanted to get a Buttigieg one, but he’s apparently not selling them yet. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
vcczar 0 Report post Posted September 6 18 minutes ago, Actinguy said: If my neighborhood, which is otherwise an incredibly wonderful place to live, is any indication...Trump will triumph again. A huge Trump 2020 banner is already flying over one garage. Judging by the number of “lock her up” signs I saw last time, I expect the banner to soon have many friends. Not a single democrat sign up yet. Wife and I wanted to get a Buttigieg one, but he’s apparently not selling them yet. I've only seen maybe 5 Trump banners in my entire life. I never saw a single one in Austin, TX, San Marcos, TX, NYC, Boston, Salem, Washington DC, New Orleans. Obviously, all liberal places, but you'd expect to see one. In Philadelphia, I've seen one, and it has since been taken down by the owner. In Stone Harbor, NJ (near Cape May, NJ), I saw 4 banners on some yachts. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Reagan04 0 Report post Posted September 6 2 hours ago, Actinguy said: If my neighborhood, which is otherwise an incredibly wonderful place to live, is any indication...Trump will triumph again. A huge Trump 2020 banner is already flying over one garage. Judging by the number of “lock her up” signs I saw last time, I expect the banner to soon have many friends. Not a single democrat sign up yet. Wife and I wanted to get a Buttigieg one, but he’s apparently not selling them yet. If 2018 is any indication, Ohio is already a lost cause for the Democrats, after Brown's quite embarrassing performance and a failure to gain ground in the House and most notable to flip the Governorship, I'd triage the state if I were the DNC. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
