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vcczar

Another way to look at the battleground states

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Here's the popular vote in the battleground states in the US House elections during the 2018 midterms. If Democrats replicate a high voter turnout, it could turn out looking something like this vs. Trump in 2020:

  • Arizona: Dems win by 0.75 pts
  • Colorado: Dems win by 10.5 pts
  • Florida: Reps win by 5.25 pts 
  • Georgia: Reps win by 4.50 pts
  • Iowa: Dems wins by 4.00 pts
  • Maine at large: Dems win by 15 pts
  • Maine's conservative district: Dems win by 1.5 pts
  • Michigan: Dems win by 7.7 pts
  • Minnesota: Dems win by 11.5 pts
  • Nevada: Dems win by 5.5 pts
  • New Hampshire: Dems win by 10.9 pts
  • New Mexico: Dems win by 20.0 pts
  • North Carolina: Reps win by 2.0 pts
  • Ohio: Reps win by 4.75 pts
  • Pennsylvania: Dems win by 10.25 pts
  • Texas: Reps win by 3.40 pts
  • Virginia: Dems win by 13.8 pts
  • Wisconsin: Dems win by 7.7 pts

This is how this map would replicate for 2020 if the victors in PV remain the same: https://www.270towin.com/maps/dQgyX

I was going to do every state's numbers for 2008, 2010, 2012, 2014, 2016 (House and Pres), but I got other things I gotta do. Maybe in a month or so. 

Obviously, Trump isn't directly on the ballot in 2018, so that might effect some voter. Also House votes don't always translate to presidential votes. For instance, Obama won Florida in 2008 and 2012, but the GOP won the PV overwhelmingly in the House elections of those years (well, not so much 2008, but they still won). Thus, a 5pt PV advantage for GOP in the House in 2020 might translate to a Democratic win for the presidential ticket. 

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10 hours ago, vcczar said:

If Democrats replicate a high voter turnout

I’m reminded of a story my wife tells, of her middle school days.

An undesired boy approached my wife’s friend and told her “If you were my girlfriend, we would have SEX.”

To which my wife’s friend replied:

Big “if”, buddy.  Big, BIG “if.”

 

 

I do expect record turnout for Democrats.

I also expect record turnout for Republicans.

 

 

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12 minutes ago, Actinguy said:

I’m reminded of a story my wife tells, of her middle school days.

An undesired boy approached my wife’s friend and told her “If you were my girlfriend, we would have SEX.”

To which my wife’s friend replied:

Big “if”, buddy.  Big, BIG “if.”

 

 

I do expect record turnout for Democrats.

I also expect record turnout for Republicans.

 

 

At some point I'm going to show the +'s for every election from 2008 to 2018 (House and President). I'm curious as to what your prediction is for Ohio's vote. I expect it to be GOP, nonetheless. 

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54 minutes ago, vcczar said:

At some point I'm going to show the +'s for every election from 2008 to 2018 (House and President). I'm curious as to what your prediction is for Ohio's vote. I expect it to be GOP, nonetheless. 

If my neighborhood, which is otherwise an incredibly wonderful place to live, is any indication...Trump will triumph again.

A huge Trump 2020 banner is already flying over one garage.  Judging by the number of “lock her up” signs I saw last time, I expect the banner to soon have many friends.

Not a single democrat sign up yet.  Wife and I wanted to get a Buttigieg one, but he’s apparently not selling them yet.  

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18 minutes ago, Actinguy said:

If my neighborhood, which is otherwise an incredibly wonderful place to live, is any indication...Trump will triumph again.

A huge Trump 2020 banner is already flying over one garage.  Judging by the number of “lock her up” signs I saw last time, I expect the banner to soon have many friends.

Not a single democrat sign up yet.  Wife and I wanted to get a Buttigieg one, but he’s apparently not selling them yet.  

I've only seen maybe 5 Trump banners in my entire life.

I never saw a single one in Austin, TX, San Marcos, TX, NYC, Boston, Salem, Washington DC, New Orleans. Obviously, all liberal places, but you'd expect to see one. In Philadelphia, I've seen one, and it has since been taken down by the owner. In Stone Harbor, NJ (near Cape May, NJ), I saw 4 banners on some yachts. 

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2 hours ago, Actinguy said:

If my neighborhood, which is otherwise an incredibly wonderful place to live, is any indication...Trump will triumph again.

A huge Trump 2020 banner is already flying over one garage.  Judging by the number of “lock her up” signs I saw last time, I expect the banner to soon have many friends.

Not a single democrat sign up yet.  Wife and I wanted to get a Buttigieg one, but he’s apparently not selling them yet.  

If 2018 is any indication, Ohio is already a lost cause for the Democrats, after Brown's quite embarrassing performance and a failure to gain ground in the House and most notable to flip the Governorship, I'd triage the state if I were the DNC.

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