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vcczar

Hypothetical Convention Battle

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Let's say the Dem Convention is locked up in 2020 and there are four candidates still in the race. The situation is this:

  • The delegates are split nearly four ways, so close that someone dropping out isn't obvious. 
  • Biden is 3rd in delegates, but he's first in polling against Trump, with a 12 pt advantage head-to-head against Trump. He's also beating Trump well above the margin of error in key battleground states. However, enthusiasm for Biden is about the same as it was for Clinton among the base and youth vote. African-American voters, however, prefer Biden to any other candidate. He has his strongest support among whites with no college degree, NeverTrump centrists and conservatives, and Regret-a-Trumps, those that had voted for Trump but reversed themselves during the midterms and after. Biden's campaign is arguing that he's the only certain victory. 
  • Warren has the most delegates and the highest popular vote in the primaries, although barely on both counts. She also is the only candidate with a complete platform already; although, it's understood she'll make concessions at the convention. She is polling even with Trump, including in key battleground states, except in FL and NC, where she's losing. She has the most enthusiasm among women and the base. She has limited support among African-Americans and Whites without a college degree. Warren's campaign argues that she is the Democratic voter's preferred choice and the surest candidate to bring change. 
  • Sanders has the 2nd most delegates. He's polling a lead against Trump, but at the margin of error. However, he's polling below Trump in some key battleground states. Sanders draws most of his enthusiasm with the youth vote, independent voters who want an outsider (including some that voted Trump in 2016), many former Jill Stein voters, a large percentage of people that usually do not vote, and about 25% of his total voters (some already mentioned) are Bernie and Bust voters, who will not vote, vote 3rd party, or will vote for Trump if Sanders is not the nominee, even if Sanders endorses the Democrat. Sanders campaign argues that he can bring in voters that other Democrats cannot, including voters that would support Trump if he is not the nominee. 
  • Buttigieg is 4th in delegates and 4th in popular vote; however, he's the one with momentum, and has one that last few primaries after surging up in the polls. Pundits argue that if the primary season was extended a month and there were 10 more states, that he would likely win the primaries. However, many think his rise came too late. Buttigieg polls even with Trump, but is polling better than Trump in key midwest states, but within the margin of error. Buttigieg's support comes mainly from Dem voters concerned with the age of the other nominee, and from Dem voters who had supported other candidates but were alienated by either Biden, Warren, or Sanders. Buttigieg has strong support among gender identity activists, military vets, and the youth vote. His support is weak among African-Americans, and the progressive base. Buttigieg's campaign claims that recent polls suggest voters are unhappy with the other candidates, and as a candidate that is 30 to 40 years younger than the other candidates, that he's the only candidate with a true eye on the future. 

If the Dem Convention is locked up and this is the situation, what do you think will happen? Who is the nominee? Who is the VP? What are the platform concessions? How many rounds of voting does it take to determine the nominee? Is there a compromise pick? How do they perform vs. Trump? 

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I think maybe you'd end up with either Warren or Buttigieg as the nominee, with Biden as the running mate. I think if Warren is the nominee her platform largely stays the same but during the general the focus kind of shifts, trying to boost her appeal with moderates, independents, and republicans. If Buttigieg is the nominee I think the platform stays the same as well, however a big shift during the general would be Future/Normalcy, with Buttigieg keeping his platform but using Biden as the normalcy and to get support with African-Americans while also doubling down on the midwest and swing states.

 

If there is a compromise pick I think it'd be hilarious if it was Hillary Clinton.

 

Both Dem tickets win the popular vote but Warren/Biden lose to Trump 289-249. Buttigieg/Biden wins against Trump 277-261

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26 minutes ago, SilentLiberty said:

If there is a compromise pick I think it'd be hilarious if it was Hillary Clinton.

It would be funnier if no one even knew she was at the Convention. She shows up dressed like Trump and with a Trump whig, trying to be funny. Then she picks Tim Kaine as her VP again. After a long speech blaming people for not voting for her last time, she says, "The fate of the nation is in the hands of you who did not vote for me last time. Don't be deplorable. Make me president!" Her platform is completely the same. She begins chanting Lock Trump Up! That becomes a thing. She changes her debate and campaign style from programmed politician to just consistently insulting Trump's appearance and behavior in the lewdest of terms. "Trump looks like the sex child of an umpaloomba and muffin with gigantism, and then was transgendered back and forth 20 times." She even stops shaving. She spits on Trump in a live debate. He tries to react but falls over and farts upon impact. He becomes a laughing stock as Clinton has outbullied bully Trump. She's becomes so good at it that the voters that voted for Trump primarily for his bully-mentality switch over to Clinton.  Clinton wins every electoral vote. Then during her inauguration speech, she calls the entire nation deplorable for voting for her, and immediately resigns. Kaine dies of a stroke upon realizing he has suddenly become president. Nancy Pelosi becomes president and picks Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez as VP. 

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14 minutes ago, vcczar said:

It would be funnier if no one even knew she was at the Convention. She shows up dressed like Trump and with a Trump whig, trying to be funny. Then she picks Tim Kaine as her VP again. After a long speech blaming people for not voting for her last time, she says, "The fate of the nation is in the hands of you who did not vote for me last time. Don't be deplorable. Make me president!" Her platform is completely the same. She begins chanting Lock Trump Up! That becomes a thing. She changes her debate and campaign style from programmed politician to just consistently insulting Trump's appearance and behavior in the lewdest of terms. "Trump looks like the sex child of an umpaloomba and muffin with gigantism, and then was transgendered back and forth 20 times." She even stops shaving. She spits on Trump in a live debate. He tries to react but falls over and farts upon impact. He becomes a laughing stock as Clinton has outbullied bully Trump. She's becomes so good at it that the voters that voted for Trump primarily for his bully-mentality switch over to Clinton.  Clinton wins every electoral vote. Then during her inauguration speech, she calls the entire nation deplorable for voting for her, and immediately resigns. Kaine dies of a stroke upon realizing he has suddenly become president. Nancy Pelosi becomes president and picks Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez as VP. 

I mean I think AOC has a better chance at becoming President than any of the 10 Democrats who will be on the debate stage here coming up, so that's not to far from fiction. In fact, I'm not a gambler like some users here but I'd wager on AOC being the President by 2033.

 

Also something tells me Clinton actually has some of those resentful thoughts, so while I was reading that it wasn't like I was reading something completely fiction poking the bear, I actually felt like I could see the SNL skits of those events...

 

"sad!"

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1 hour ago, vcczar said:

It would be funnier if no one even knew she was at the Convention. She shows up dressed like Trump and with a Trump whig, trying to be funny. Then she picks Tim Kaine as her VP again. After a long speech blaming people for not voting for her last time, she says, "The fate of the nation is in the hands of you who did not vote for me last time. Don't be deplorable. Make me president!" Her platform is completely the same. She begins chanting Lock Trump Up! That becomes a thing. She changes her debate and campaign style from programmed politician to just consistently insulting Trump's appearance and behavior in the lewdest of terms. "Trump looks like the sex child of an umpaloomba and muffin with gigantism, and then was transgendered back and forth 20 times." She even stops shaving. She spits on Trump in a live debate. He tries to react but falls over and farts upon impact. He becomes a laughing stock as Clinton has outbullied bully Trump. She's becomes so good at it that the voters that voted for Trump primarily for his bully-mentality switch over to Clinton.  Clinton wins every electoral vote. Then during her inauguration speech, she calls the entire nation deplorable for voting for her, and immediately resigns. Kaine dies of a stroke upon realizing he has suddenly become president. Nancy Pelosi becomes president and picks Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez as VP. 

@ThePotatoWalrus would like this

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3 hours ago, vcczar said:

She shows up dressed like Trump and with a Trump whig

Too many historical elections I see

3 hours ago, vcczar said:

He tries to react but falls over and farts upon impact.

Why are you so obsessed with Trump farting on impact lol. I swear you've put this line on every scenario you've made.

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11 minutes ago, ThePotatoWalrus said:

Too many historical elections I see

Why are you so obsessed with Trump farting on impact lol. I swear you've put this line on every scenario you've made.

It's because it's a sure fire way of him losing his base of support. Especially, if he falls off a stool or slips on a banana peel. 

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8 minutes ago, ThePotatoWalrus said:

Too many historical elections I see

You know, given the miserable and unthinking conduct, with stupid bad stereotypes and myths eagerly believed and nothing but bad ideas that do go good for the majority and so short-sighted as to be leading to almost certain long-term ruin, in the modern elections, and the either horrid or lackluster candidates, or ones who bring nothing to the table, and the absolutely toxic and counter-productive role modern media is playing, historical elections have a certain allure as a "refreshing" subject matter, and, as I've said, are what I plan to focus on for custom made scenarios of my own.

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Just now, vcczar said:

It's because it's a sure fire way of him losing his base of support. Especially, if he falls off a stool or slips on a banana peel. 

I think you underestimate how gross many Trump supporters are, i'd say it'd ignite them and make him more relatable to the working class.

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1 minute ago, Patine said:

You know, given the miserable and unthinking conduct, with stupid bad stereotypes and myths eagerly believed and nothing but bad ideas that do go good for the majority and so short-sighted as to be leading to almost certain long-term ruin, in the modern elections, and the either horrid or lackluster candidates, or ones who bring nothing to the table, and the absolutely toxic and counter-productive role modern media is playing, historical elections have a certain allure as a "refreshing" subject matter, and, as I've said, are what I plan to focus on for custom made scenarios of my own.

Too many commas and adjectives didn't read

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2 minutes ago, ThePotatoWalrus said:

I think you underestimate how gross many Trump supporters are, i'd say it'd ignite them and make him more relatable to the working class.

Okay, silent but deadly then. Working class people hate that one. 

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2 minutes ago, ThePotatoWalrus said:

Too many commas and adjectives didn't read

Your brain-rot from low-grade media and sheepish cultist worship of Trump - who doesn't, in truth, give a damn about OR the long-term future of the nation you both live in - shows itself again. You are unworthy of the IQ and education you claim you have.

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1 minute ago, Patine said:

Your brain-rot from low-grade media and sheepish cultist worship of Trump - who doesn't, in truth, give a damn about OR the long-term future of the nation you both live in - shows itself again. You are unworthy of the IQ and education you claim you have.

I do claim a 144 IQ (proven) but I do not claim to have good education as I really hate school - to clarify.

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2 minutes ago, ThePotatoWalrus said:

I do claim a 144 IQ (proven) but I do not claim to have good education as I really hate school - to clarify.

😂🙄

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5 minutes ago, ThePotatoWalrus said:

I do claim a 144 IQ (proven) but I do not claim to have good education as I really hate school - to clarify.

Then I'd advise more school. You sound like a damned idiot. And what are going to do when the "Trump Administration Zeitgeist" goes away and the "fad fashionability" of being a "brain-rotted, meme-spewing, talking out your ass on every matter moron," passes along, and the social parameters change, even among those on the right-wing of the spectrum? Will you be able to adapt?

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20 minutes ago, Patine said:

Then I'd advise more school. You sound like a damned idiot. And what are going to do when the "Trump Administration Zeitgeist" goes away and the "fad fashionability" of being a "brain-rotted, meme-spewing, talking out your ass on every matter moron," passes along, and the social parameters change, even among those on the right-wing of the spectrum? Will you be able to adapt?

He's not adaptive or has shown no signed of ever being so. He's part of the cult of Trump, which embraces stubborness and black or white thinking such as, to quote him from today, "women aren't competitive". You might want to just put him on ignore. 

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4 minutes ago, vcczar said:

He's not adaptive or has shown no signed of ever being so. He's part of the cult of Trump, which embraces stubborness and black or white thinking such as, to quote him from today, "women aren't competitive". You might want to just put him on ignore. 

Meh i'm not a huge fan of Trump anymore as long as he keeps up the tariffs.

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In the scenario you present, I’d support Biden for President and Buttigieg as VP.

Youve got Biden crushing Trump in the polls just weeks before the general election.  He apparently doesn’t need the Bernie or Bust bros.  And then you have Buttigieg bringing the demographics that weren’t excited by Biden himself, too.

 

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22 minutes ago, Actinguy said:

In the scenario you present, I’d support Biden for President and Buttigieg as VP.

Youve got Biden crushing Trump in the polls just weeks before the general election.  He apparently doesn’t need the Bernie or Bust bros.  And then you have Buttigieg bringing the demographics that weren’t excited by Biden himself, too.

 

Good point. Would you trust the Convention to decide on that ticket?

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10 minutes ago, vcczar said:

Good point. Would you trust the Convention to decide on that ticket?

It’s difficult to say.  If all four candidates have roughly equal support, then they each have about 25%.

If Biden and Buttigieg join forces, that brings them just shy of 50%.  They’d have to win over some Bernie and/or Warren delegates.

This might be achieved by giving Warren Secretary of Treasury?  I’m assuming she wouldn’t be interested in the other big three of State, Defense, and Attorney General.  Though maybe she might like AG after all.

Heck, maybe you even offer her RBG’s seat on the Supreme Court should it become available.

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2 minutes ago, Actinguy said:

It’s difficult to say.  If all four candidates have roughly equal support, then they each have about 25%.

If Biden and Buttigieg join forces, that brings them just shy of 50%.  They’d have to win over some Bernie and/or Warren delegates.

This might be achieved by giving Warren Secretary of Treasury?  I’m assuming she wouldn’t be interested in the other big three of State, Defense, and Attorney General.  Though maybe she might like AG after all.

Heck, maybe you even offer her RBG’s seat on the Supreme Court should it become available.

I think that's a good plan. I would give Warren both of those to guarantee her support, but you kind of have to offer Sanders something to prevent some Bernie or Busts for voting Trump. Maybe offer him Sec of Labor or at least appoint the next Sec of Labor, which he won't be able to take or the VT gov will pick a GOP to replace his empty seat. MA has a supermajority so they can change the rule and force Baker to appoint a DEM, who will likely be JP Kennedy III. 

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You don’t actually need Bernie...it doesn’t have to be a 100% coronation.  You just have to pass 50%, and if you get both Buttigieg and Warren throwing their lot in with Biden, you win.

Bernie or Bust supporters aren’t going to be won over by ANYTHING short of Bernie being the President...that’s what the “bust” part means.  No sense wasting a Secretary slot trying.

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1 minute ago, vcczar said:

MA has a supermajority so they can change the rule and force Baker to appoint a DEM, who will likely be JP Kennedy III

giphy.gif
 

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11 minutes ago, Actinguy said:

You don’t actually need Bernie...it doesn’t have to be a 100% coronation.  You just have to pass 50%, and if you get both Buttigieg and Warren throwing their lot in with Biden, you win.

Bernie or Bust supporters aren’t going to be won over by ANYTHING short of Bernie being the President...that’s what the “bust” part means.  No sense wasting a Secretary slot trying.

Biden is the kind of candidate I think isn't nearly what he once was, or what his fans remember him for. I'm not sure he's a solid candidate, to be honest, despite being the only running in the whole Primary process who has actually, himself, contributed seriously to PEACE in the Middle East (as opposed to war, division, support of horrid, bloody-handed, human-rights-abusing tyrants while condemning other such tyrants and using their regimes as casus belli for wars, and exploitation of oil through blood and fire) by his major role in the Camp David Accords. Buttigieg is one of five main Democratic Primary candidates right now I do NOT trust at all, and have really vibes about, all for different reasons.

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