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vcczar

Instability in Polls (Polls Sept 3, 2019)

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I'm looking at today's polls. A lot of inconsistency except in agreeing that if the election were held today that Trump is probably toast.  

Democratic Primary (Inconsistent!):

  • Warren winning by 7 pts in a Change Research poll over other Democrats. Biden is in 3rd. 
  • Biden winning by 18 pts in a HarrisX poll and by 16 in a Harris Interactive poll!
  • IBD has Biden winning only by 4
  • Other polls have Biden at about 10 pt lead
  • Race is clearly a 3-way race (with a dominant horse out front) with Harris, and sometimes Buttigieg, as the outlier. 

General Election vs. Trump (Trump has a shot at reelection unless he's killed by "Landslide Dementia Joe":

  • Biden is polling a landslide at 12 pts, about 3 or 4x the margin of error. If this is definitely how people would vote today, then Biden probably wins TX, AZ, OH, FL, NC, VA, NH, PA, MI, WI, MN, NV, GA, IA --- all the battleground states. 
  • Sanders (4pts), Warren and Harris (3pts each) are about at the margin of error.
  • I think Trump wins unless the polls have him 5 pts behind nationally and in WI, MI, and PA. 
  • Note: Clinton polls 3.2+ against Trump on average on Election day week. Only one major poll had Trump winning (3+). The rest had Clinton between +1 and +6, with the average at 3.2+. Biden, right now, is well beyond this average (either double or triple). Contrary to what some say, the polls weren't that far off. Clinton won the popular vote with 2.1+ (only off by 1.1). What was wrong were those predicting the EC, and these were within the margin of error. 

Governor Election polls (Dems threatening the South?):

  • Kentucky: A recent poll has Dem candidate Beshear destroying incumbent GOP Gov Bevin by 9 pts
  • Mississippi: A recent poll has Dem candidate Hood beating GOP candidate Tate by 1pt
  •  Louisiana: Incumbent Dem Edwards seems likely to win reelection (so far). He's winning by 10 to 6 pts vs both Republican challenger and by 27+ if they're both in the race. 

US House (inconsistent):

  • NC-9 has Dem candidate McCready winning by 5 pts on Aug 30th, but today he is losing to Bishop by 1 pt. 
  • NC-3 has GOP candidate Murphy killing Dem Thomas by 11pts, almost as bad as Biden beats Trump. 

US Senate (no polls since 2018)

Generic:

  • Dems crushing GOP 5+ to 11+ in the last week of polls. The Blue Wave had the generic polls at between 8+ and 12+ heading into Midterms. 

Approval:

  • Trump's disapproval is between 2 and 18 pts  in the last week of polls. 

 

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The Kentucky poll you reference is a poll done by a liberal group (and probably shouldn't be trusted).  If I were to guess, the race is probably pretty close right now (within the margin of error).  However, Democratic groups have started to stop advertising which could indicate something that the public doesn't know about.

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2 minutes ago, jvikings1 said:

The Kentucky poll you reference is a poll done by a liberal group (and probably shouldn't be trusted).  If I were to guess, the race is probably pretty close right now (within the margin of error).  However, Democratic groups have started to stop advertising which could indicate something that the public doesn't know about.

I'm interested in watching Rocky Adkins, he's a pretty cool guy and if he runs against McConnell we may actually see sparks in that race unlike Alligator Underpants Grime who landed with a spectacular thud.

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9 minutes ago, ThePotatoWalrus said:

Honestly I could probably start in the WNBA

But what good does a comment like this do for anyone?

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16 minutes ago, ThePotatoWalrus said:

Honestly I could probably start in the WNBA

You absolutely could not

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4 minutes ago, jnewt said:

You absolutely could not

It'd be absolutely funny to see him get wrecked though. 

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56 minutes ago, ThePotatoWalrus said:

Honestly I could probably start in the WNBA

 

47 minutes ago, SilentLiberty said:

But what good does a comment like this do for anyone?

 

40 minutes ago, jnewt said:

You absolutely could not

 

36 minutes ago, SilentLiberty said:

It'd be absolutely funny to see him get wrecked though. 

Didn’t you hear? PotatoWalrus transgendered himself. 

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1 hour ago, Reagan04 said:

I'm interested in watching Rocky Adkins, he's a pretty cool guy and if he runs against McConnell we may actually see sparks in that race unlike Alligator Underpants Grime who landed with a spectacular thud.

Alligator Underpants? That's an unusual epithet.

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29 minutes ago, vcczar said:

 

 

 

Didn’t you hear? PotatoWalrus transgendered himself. 

Next thing you know he's gonna be a member of the U15 boys team that beat the Women Soccer World Champions

2 minutes ago, Patine said:

Alligator Underpants? That's an unusual epithet.

Yeah it's what I could think of on the fly for Allison Lundergan Grimes who was supposed to be a superstar candidate but turned god awful.

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I'm 6'2, the average height in the WNBA is under 6'. The highest max bench in the WNBA that I could find is 132 lbs by a 6'8 woman. Idk what my max is but last year it was over 150. I have a great jumpshot, and even if my shot was wack on game day I could easily push through the paint past two or three women easily, not a guarantee but I could prob get a dunk over one. I can dunk uncontested about 80% of the time. The WNBA is literal trash, I watched literally one Sparks game and they missed two open layups and not a single person dunked the ball. Ridiculous.

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15 hours ago, vcczar said:

Didn’t you hear? PotatoWalrus transgendered himself. 

I'd transgender myself if it meant I could be drafted in the WNBA.

Only woman I prob couldn't beat 1v1 are Sheryl Swoopes in her prime and Candace Parker. Anyone else is an easy win. We've scrimmaged 3v3 men's vs women's basketball teams at school and it isn't even close. Women aren't competitive.

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12 minutes ago, ThePotatoWalrus said:

I'm 6'2, the average height in the WNBA is under 6'. The highest max bench in the WNBA that I could find is 132 lbs by a 6'8 woman. Idk what my max is but last year it was over 150. I have a great jumpshot, and even if my shot was wack on game day I could easily push through the paint past two or three women easily, not a guarantee but I could prob get a dunk over one. I can dunk uncontested about 80% of the time. The WNBA is literal trash, I watched literally one Sparks game and they missed two open layups and not a single person dunked the ball. Ridiculous.

You'd get beat so bad by the most recent couple draft classes alone it's not even funny. Cmon now. 

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13 minutes ago, ThePotatoWalrus said:

I'd transgender myself if it meant I could be drafted in the WNBA.

Only woman I prob couldn't beat 1v1 are Sheryl Swoopes in her prime and Candace Parker. Anyone else is an easy win. We've scrimmaged 3v3 men's vs women's basketball teams at school and it isn't even close. Women aren't competitive.

You’ve once again proved your IQ is nowhere near where you claim it to be. If it was, you’d know that the women at your school are nowhere near athletic as the women in the WNBA. Just because they can’t dunk doesn’t mean they’re not athletic. I recently saw a video of a division 2 men’s colleges basketball player who was also stupid enough to think he could beat a WNBA player one-on-one; she dominated him. 

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1 hour ago, SilentLiberty said:

You'd get beat so bad by the most recent couple draft classes alone it's not even funny. Cmon now. 

I've never seen so many missed layups in a single game before. Their form is so horrible because most of them aren't strong enough to shoot a 3 (even with the shorter line

1 hour ago, jnewt said:

You’ve once again proved your IQ is nowhere near where you claim it to be. If it was, you’d know that the women at your school are nowhere near athletic as the women in the WNBA. Just because they can’t dunk doesn’t mean they’re not athletic. I recently saw a video of a division 2 men’s colleges basketball player who was also stupid enough to think he could beat a WNBA player one-on-one; she dominated him. 

Just watched the vid you're talking about. The dude in question is a 5'11 guy who averaged ~5 PPG in college as a bench warmer and hasn't played competitively for over 2 years and is obviously overweight and very out of form (and he only lost by a single point). For this one vid there are 1000 vids of guys dominating female players that aren't shown because of the female-empowered clown world we live in where we pity women for not being athletic (PROOF, nothing but respect to Parker but JR obviously won this dunk contest). And the girls I played with were varsity starters and one of them was All-Ohio and they scored only like twice to 15 (and not on me, but I concede I didn't guard the all-Ohio one)

In short, if a professional athlete almost loses to an out-of-shape bench warmer who hasn't played in years (and looks like he isn't even trying when he can easily use his size to back down and do a post move) that's not a good sign for female athletes.

She's kind of attractive though so I'll give her that.

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21 minutes ago, ThePotatoWalrus said:

I've never seen so many missed layups in a single game before. Their form is so horrible because most of them aren't strong enough to shoot a 3 (even with the shorter line

Just watched the vid you're talking about. The dude in question is a 5'11 guy who averaged ~5 PPG in college as a bench warmer and hasn't played competitively for over 2 years and is obviously overweight and very out of form (and he only lost by a single point). For this one vid there are 1000 vids of guys dominating female players that aren't shown because of the female-empowered clown world we live in where we pity women for not being athletic (PROOF, nothing but respect to Parker but JR obviously won this dunk contest). And the girls I played with were varsity starters and one of them was All-Ohio and they scored only like twice to 15 (and not on me, but I concede I didn't guard the all-Ohio one)

In short, if a professional athlete almost loses to an out-of-shape bench warmer who hasn't played in years (and looks like he isn't even trying when he can easily use his size to back down and do a post move) that's not a good sign for female athletes.

She's kind of attractive though so I'll give her that.

“Varsity starters” are nothing compared to professional athletes. Sure, you could beat a high school girl one-on-one. You absolutely could not beat one of the most athletic women in the world though. I don’t think you understand how much of a jump it is from high school to college, let alone to the WNBA. 

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20 minutes ago, jnewt said:

“Varsity starters” are nothing compared to professional athletes. Sure, you could beat a high school girl one-on-one. You absolutely could not beat one of the most athletic women in the world though. I don’t think you understand how much of a jump it is from high school to college, let alone to the WNBA. 

I would gladly and easily beat a WNBA player (except Candace Parker) and be a guaranteed starter on the better WNBA teams. They should be happy they get paid as much as they do.

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7 minutes ago, ThePotatoWalrus said:

I would gladly and easily beat a WNBA player (except Candace Parker) and be a guaranteed starter on the better WNBA teams. They should be happy they get paid as much as they do.

Personally, while I believe in a lot of the aspects of transsexual rights and protections, I DON'T support such exploits as you're talking about. A male-to-female transsexual whose seriously undergoing "the transformation process," undergoes a rigorous hormone injection regime, in which people - like you - would not maintain these physical advantages long at all. I don't believe in a man entering women's sports unless they are deep and seriously into the process - not on self-identity alone. I may differ from the "radical progressive" movement in this way, certainly - but I do believe the "radical progressive" has gone too far in a fair number of areas, and, like the nationalist/anti-immigration/ethnostate far-right wing, has no viable or workable vision for the future, only long-term ruination, chaos, social and political denegration, economic unstainability, and, eventually, collapse into a new global Dark Age. Sensible, practical, pragmatic moderates who actually THINK about affairs need to take power back, or EVERYONE is doomed.

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1 minute ago, ThePotatoWalrus said:

"We don't allow dunking in our practice"

pathetic

Go try and be a practice squad member, see how good you really do against them. 

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Just now, Patine said:

Personally, while I believe in a lot of the aspects of transsexual rights and protections, I DON'T support such exploits as you're talking about. A male-to-female transsexual whose seriously undergoing "the transformation process," undergoes a rigorous hormone injection regime, in which people - like you - would not maintain these physical advantages long at all. I don't believe in a man entering women's sports unless they are deep and seriously into the process - not on self-identity alone. I may differ from the "radical progressive" movement in this way, certainly - but I do believe the "radical progressive" has gone too far in a fair number of areas, and, like the nationalist/anti-immigration/ethnostate far-right wing, has no viable or workable vision for the future, only long-term ruination, chaos, social and political denegration, economic unstainability, and, eventually, collapse into a new global Dark Age. Sensible, practical, pragmatic moderates who actually THINK about affairs need to take power back, or EVERYONE is doomed.

Glad you're not entirely "brain-rotted"

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Just now, SilentLiberty said:

Go try and be a practice squad member, see how good you really do against them. 

If there's any near Cleveland i'd go, not sure if we have a WNBA team though.

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"laid back attitude in our court" lmfao what a joke. That's not how you win games. And especially not by banning dunking in practice. You win games by being the best player on the court and working hard. Jordan was the best because he put so much into his game and came onto the court with killer-instinct and determination to kill you in every single game you played against him. LeBron has it too, just not as much (see Heat vs Celtics game 6, Cavs vs Celtics game 7 2018, Cavs vs Warriors game 6 and 7, 2016, etc.). Jordan didn't play to "relax" or "have fun", Jordan made the game his entire life, and that's why he will always be the best player of all time.

I can say with 100% confidence that no WNBA player, past or present, has ever had a true killer instinct, not even for one game. No WNBA player would make an NBA roster even as the 13th option.

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19 minutes ago, ThePotatoWalrus said:

"laid back attitude in our court" lmfao what a joke. That's not how you win games. And especially not by banning dunking in practice. You win games by being the best player on the court and working hard. Jordan was the best because he put so much into his game and came onto the court with killer-instinct and determination to kill you in every single game you played against him. LeBron has it too, just not as much (see Heat vs Celtics game 6, Cavs vs Celtics game 7 2018, Cavs vs Warriors game 6 and 7, 2016, etc.). Jordan didn't play to "relax" or "have fun", Jordan made the game his entire life, and that's why he will always be the best player of all time.

I can say with 100% confidence that no WNBA player, past or present, has ever had a true killer instinct, not even for one game. No WNBA player would make an NBA roster even as the 13th option.

For someone with such a high IQ, you sure are an idiot. 

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