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Actinguy

Head to Head polling at the state level

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Various polls have been checking head to head matchups on Trump vs. each of the five top polling Democrats (Biden, Warren, Bernie, Kamala, Buttigieg) in potential battleground states.

Some of the results were within the polls' margin of error...but taking each result at face value, here's what the matchups apparently look like.  

TRUMP VS BIDEN:
Arizona: Biden
Colorado: Biden
Nevada: Biden
North Carolina: Biden
Texas: Biden
Ohio: Biden
Maine: Biden
Florida: Biden
Michigan: Biden
(Yes, EVERY polled head-to-head matchup state has Biden beating Trump.)
Total electoral votes: At least 360

TRUMP VS BERNIE
Arizona: Trump
Colorado: Bernie
Nevada: Bernie
North Carolina: Bernie
Texas: Bernie
Ohio: Trump
Maine: Bernie
Florida: Bernie
Michigan: Bernie
Total electoral votes: At least 331

TRUMP VS WARREN
Arizona: Trump
Colorado: Warren
Nevada: Trump
North Carolina: Warren
Texas: Trump
Ohio: Warren
Maine: Warren
Florida:Warren
Michigan: Warren
Total electoral votes: At least 305

TRUMP VS KAMALA
Arizona: Trump
Colorado: Kamala
Nevada: Tie
North Carolina: Trump
Texas: Trump
Ohio: Tie
Maine: Kamala
Florida Kamala
Michigan: Kamala
Total electoral votes: At least 272

TRUMP VS BUTTIGIEG
Arizona: Trump
Colorado: Buttigieg
Nevada: Trump
North Carolina: Trump
Texas: Trump
Ohio: Tie
Maine: Buttigieg
Florida Buttigieg
Michigan: Buttigieg
Total electoral votes: At least 272
 

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Other notes:  Booker was polled only in Ohio, where he loses against Trump.

Castro and Beto were both polled in Texas, where they both loses to Trump.

Beto was also polled in Florida, where he beats Trump (as does all of the other 5 Democrats)

 

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8 minutes ago, Actinguy said:

Various polls have been checking head to head matchups on Trump vs. each of the five top polling Democrats (Biden, Warren, Bernie, Kamala, Buttigieg) in potential battleground states.

Some of the results were within the polls' margin of error...but taking each result at face value, here's what the matchups apparently look like.  

TRUMP VS BIDEN:
Arizona: Biden
Colorado: Biden
Nevada: Biden
North Carolina: Biden
Texas: Biden
Ohio: Biden
Maine: Biden
Florida: Biden
Michigan: Biden
(Yes, EVERY polled head-to-head matchup state has Biden beating Trump.)
Total electoral votes: At least 360

TRUMP VS BERNIE
Arizona: Trump
Colorado: Bernie
Nevada: Bernie
North Carolina: Bernie
Texas: Bernie
Ohio: Trump
Maine: Bernie
Florida: Bernie
Michigan: Bernie
Total electoral votes: At least 331

TRUMP VS WARREN
Arizona: Trump
Colorado: Warren
Nevada: Trump
North Carolina: Warren
Texas: Trump
Ohio: Warren
Maine: Warren
Florida:Warren
Michigan: Warren
Total electoral votes: At least 305

TRUMP VS KAMALA
Arizona: Trump
Colorado: Kamala
Nevada: Tie
North Carolina: Trump
Texas: Trump
Ohio: Tie
Maine: Kamala
Florida Kamala
Michigan: Kamala
Total electoral votes: At least 272

TRUMP VS BUTTIGIEG
Arizona: Trump
Colorado: Buttigieg
Nevada: Trump
North Carolina: Trump
Texas: Trump
Ohio: Tie
Maine: Buttigieg
Florida Buttigieg
Michigan: Buttigieg
Total electoral votes: At least 272
 

I bet the "no opinion" is much higher on all of these except for the Biden vs. Trump or Biden vs. Warren, which may be a reason why the others don't do as well. 

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9 minutes ago, pilight said:

Why does Harris get called by her first name while everyone else gets called by their last name?

Counter point: Bernie, Beto, and Mayor Pete.

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23 minutes ago, pilight said:

Why does Harris get called by her first name while everyone else gets called by their last name?

Yeah, I’m aware that I’m pretty inconsistent with that.  Basically, I think Harris is a boring name that doesn’t evoke the candidate in my mind.  Same with Sanders.

Its Biden, Bernie, Warren, Kamala, Buttigieg, Beto, Booker, Castro, Gabbard, etc etc.

I don’t have a hard and fast rule about this, but generally I go with the more unique name between their first and their last.

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27 minutes ago, pilight said:

Why does Harris get called by her first name while everyone else gets called by their last name?

You’ll note I did the same for Bernie above.

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3 hours ago, Actinguy said:

Yeah, I’m aware that I’m pretty inconsistent with that.  Basically, I think Harris is a boring name that doesn’t evoke the candidate in my mind.  Same with Sanders.

Its Biden, Bernie, Warren, Kamala, Buttigieg, Beto, Booker, Castro, Gabbard, etc etc.

I don’t have a hard and fast rule about this, but generally I go with the more unique name between their first and their last.

That's fair in conversation, but in a chart or a poll you should be more consistent.

There's a long history of infantilizing women and minorities when they seek power by the asymmetrical practice of calling them by their first names (like you would a child) instead of their last (like you would an adult).

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18 minutes ago, pilight said:

There's a long history of infantilizing women and minorities when they seek power by the asymmetrical practice of calling them by their first names (like you would a child) instead of their last (like you would an adult).

That's definetly reading far too much into it. Professionally they should be known by their last name sure, but oftentimes being known by your first name is a sign of grassroots or familiar appeal.

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21 minutes ago, pilight said:

That's fair in conversation, but in a chart or a poll you should be more consistent.

There's a long history of infantilizing women and minorities when they seek power by the asymmetrical practice of calling them by their first names (like you would a child) instead of their last (like you would an adult).

 

1 minute ago, Reagan04 said:

That's definetly reading far too much into it. Professionally they should be known by their last name sure, but oftentimes being known by your first name is a sign of grassroots or familiar appeal.

I'm not sure if it's as big of a deal as you think. Harris is a common name, but I agree in an official poll it should read Harris and not Kamala. 

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5 minutes ago, Reagan04 said:

That's definetly reading far too much into it. Professionally they should be known by their last name sure, but oftentimes being known by your first name is a sign of grassroots or familiar appeal.

I don't recall Jackson being touted as "Andy" in his day...

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Just now, Patine said:

I don't recall Jackson being touted as "Andy" in his day...

Well there was King Andrew 😉.

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1 minute ago, Reagan04 said:

Well there was King Andrew 😉.

Which was a Clay/Webster-created attack ad on him. And it's common knowledge monarchs only use given names with often monikers or regnal numbers.

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3 minutes ago, Patine said:

Which was a Clay/Webster-created attack ad on him. And it's common knowledge monarchs only use given names with often monikers or regnal numbers.

Of course. Just playing.

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7 hours ago, pilight said:

That's fair in conversation, but in a chart or a poll you should be more consistent.

There's a long history of infantilizing women and minorities when they seek power by the asymmetrical practice of calling them by their first names (like you would a child) instead of their last (like you would an adult).

You’re definitely taking it too far.  

Im not doing it to women and/or minorities.  As I established above, I call Warren Warren, I call Booker Booker, I call Gabbard Gabbard.  I also call Bernie, a white man, Bernie.  And I call Beto, a white man, Beto.

I call each person by their most unique identifier.  Honestly, if you came up to me in casual conversation and asked me if I’d heard the news about Harris, I’d have no idea who you were talking about.

More notably, this IS just a conversation.  We’re having a conversation about polls, sure, but the actual polls refer to her (and all other candidates) by both their first and last name together.

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23 minutes ago, pilight said:

Generally calling someone by their first name indicates you don't think they should be taken seriously.  

depending of what country in latinamerica generally people calling by first name

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28 minutes ago, pilight said:

Generally calling someone by their first name indicates you don't think they should be taken seriously.  

Not really true at all.

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7 hours ago, pilight said:

Generally calling someone by their first name indicates you don't think they should be taken seriously.  

I don’t know how many times I can say it, so here’s the last:  Harris is a common enough name that people who are only casually aware of the election wouldn’t even know who that is.  Kamala, on the other hand, is unique enough that people remember it. 

For what it’s worth, Kamala was at one time my second pick behind Buttigieg.  Her star has been fading lately, so I’m not sure if that’s still true.  

But the point is that calling her by her first name in the original context is not racist, sexist, or dismissive.  It was so people would know who the fuck I was talking about.

The end.

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29 minutes ago, Actinguy said:

I don’t know how many times I can say it, so here’s the last:  Harris is a common enough name that people who are only casually aware of the election wouldn’t even know who that is.  Kamala, on the other hand, is unique enough that people remember it. 

For what it’s worth, Kamala was at one time my second pick behind Buttigieg.  Her star has been fading lately, so I’m not sure if that’s still true.  

But the point is that calling her by her first name in the original context is not racist, sexist, or dismissive.  It was so people would know who the fuck I was talking about.

The end.

I think a lot of this kind of stuff gets a reaction because in 2016, you'd get people calling Trump "Donald J. Trump" and people calling Clinton "Hillary." Although, to be fair, Clinton bumperstickers and signs were an "H" and Trump never goes by his first name. He even calls himself Trump. I tend to just use last names for consistency, but I find myself calling Sanders "Bernie" sometimes only because everyone seems to call him that. 

In other news, Biden called New Hampshire "Vermont" in an interview. 

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On 8/24/2019 at 3:53 AM, Reagan04 said:

That's definetly reading far too much into it. Professionally they should be known by their last name sure, but oftentimes being known by your first name is a sign of grassroots or familiar appeal.

Agreed, such as with Boris here in the UK.

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14 hours ago, vcczar said:

I think a lot of this kind of stuff gets a reaction because in 2016, you'd get people calling Trump "Donald J. Trump" and people calling Clinton "Hillary." Although, to be fair, Clinton bumperstickers and signs were an "H" and Trump never goes by his first name. He even calls himself Trump. I tend to just use last names for consistency, but I find myself calling Sanders "Bernie" sometimes only because everyone seems to call him that. 

In other news, Biden called New Hampshire "Vermont" in an interview. 

I am seriously worried about him.He used to be sharp and intelligent but now he cant get a single sentence right.

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2 minutes ago, Rodja said:

I am seriously worried about him.He used to be sharp and intelligent but now he cant get a single sentence right.

I'll still vote for Dementia Joe over Donald Trump. He just needs to hold it together for another year and two months. Then the VP can take over soon after the inauguration. 

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4 hours ago, vcczar said:

I'll still vote for Dementia Joe over Donald Trump. He just needs to hold it together for another year and two months. Then the VP can take over soon after the inauguration. 

This is why his VP pick matters so much to me if he wants my vote. He goes too far left he loses me (and maybe voters like me) but he'd appeal to the seemingly most vocal part of the Democratic base (these people will likely vote Blue no matter what because it's Trump on the other side) yet if he goes to the center he may get voters like me but would absolutely disappoint the most vocal part of the base.

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Just now, SilentLiberty said:

This is why his VP pick matters so much to me if he wants my vote. He goes too far left he loses me (and maybe voters like me) but he'd appeal to the seemingly most vocal part of the Democratic base (these people will likely vote Blue no matter what because it's Trump on the other side) yet if he goes to the center he may get voters like me but would absolutely disappoint the most vocal part of the base.

Biden/Delaney and I campaign for him.

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