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Hestia11

No-Confidence Vote

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I’ve been following British news for the past couple of weeks like a hawk and I’ve noticed a very important shift on the no-confidence vote rhetoric. It’s changed from Can a vote pass? To who will lead the government when it passes? There are Conservatives openly talking about voting for the no-confidence vote, even if the leader is Jeremy Corbyn. That’s a remarkable change.

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30 minutes ago, Hestia11 said:

I’ve been following British news for the past couple of weeks like a hawk and I’ve noticed a very important shift on the no-confidence vote rhetoric. It’s changed from Can a vote pass? To who will lead the government when it passes? There are Conservatives openly talking about voting for the no-confidence vote, even if the leader is Jeremy Corbyn. That’s a remarkable change.

Yeah, at least one Tory MP said they'll support Corbyn over Johnson. 

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If they need a caretaker PM, I hope it will be the former Chancellor of the Exchequer Kenneth Clarke MP. He tried often to lead the tories, so I hope we get him in the PM list - if Johnson cannot hold the post.

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27 minutes ago, Conservative Elector 2 said:

If they need a caretaker PM, I hope it will be the former Chancellor of the Exchequer Kenneth Clarke MP. He tried often to lead the tories, so I hope we get him in the PM list - if Johnson cannot hold the post.

I'm hoping for someone else, hopefully Harman or Clarke (as Jo Swinson recommended). I hope Johnson can't hold the post, and if Corbyn can cobble together a majority, good on him.

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1 minute ago, Hestia11 said:

I'm hoping for someone else, hopefully Harman or Clarke (as Jo Swinson recommended).

Corbyn naming himself is a no-go, I can understand Swinson here.

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Just now, Conservative Elector 2 said:

Corbyn naming himself is a no-go, I can understand Swinson here.

I see why he would do it, as Leader of the Opposition, it is expected. If he is unable to get a majority, then I think that's when you go to alternatives like Clarke, Harman, or even Swinson.

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1 minute ago, Hestia11 said:

I see why he would do it, as Leader of the Opposition, it is expected. If he is unable to get a majority, then I think that's when you go to alternatives like Clarke, Harman, or even Swinson.

True but when I first read about his bold ambitions I thought "wow that's slimy". Like "hey, Johnson's bad, take me". I guess he will fail a majority anyway, so what 

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1 minute ago, Conservative Elector 2 said:

True but when I first read about his bold ambitions I thought "wow that's slimy". Like "hey, Johnson's bad, take me". I guess he will fail a majority anyway, so what 

I don't like Corbyn that much, nor do I prefer him to some of the options, I think it was kind of natural that he was going to say that. I think anyone in his shoes would have. Some Tories have said they will vote for Corbyn, but I don't know if he can afford (even if he does get the Lib Dems to vote yes) losing the Change UK and Independent votes and make them up by purely rebel Conservatives. 

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1 minute ago, Hestia11 said:

I don't like Corbyn that much, nor do I prefer him to some of the options, I think it was kind of natural that he was going to say that. I think anyone in his shoes would have. Some Tories have said they will vote for Corbyn, but I don't know if he can afford (even if he does get the Lib Dems to vote yes) losing the Change UK and Independent votes and make them up by purely rebel Conservatives. 

We'll see. It is definitely a very interesting situation in the UK right now. Combined with the crisis in Italy. They also debate a vote of no confidence currently.

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Just now, Conservative Elector 2 said:

We'll see. It is definitely a very interesting situation in the UK right now. Combined with the crisis in Italy. They also debate a vote of no confidence currently.

Italy was also a bomb waiting to drop too. The coalition partners never got along that well to begin with.

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1 hour ago, Hestia11 said:

I’ve been following British news for the past couple of weeks like a hawk and I’ve noticed a very important shift on the no-confidence vote rhetoric. It’s changed from Can a vote pass? To who will lead the government when it passes? There are Conservatives openly talking about voting for the no-confidence vote, even if the leader is Jeremy Corbyn. That’s a remarkable change.

It would be very unlikely that Corbyn would become PM in event of a vote of no confidence. Labour made a colossal miscalculation in attacking the Lib Dems so much, as it's destroyed any chance of Swinson supporting Corbyn as a Prime Minister in a government of "national unity" (which is a truly reprehensible term for it but I digress). Additionally, Labour would need the support of TIGFC and the Independents, most of whom left Labour due to their opposition to Labour's anti-semitism and leftwards move. So in that case, they'd need the support of Tory rebels, who would be very unlikely to back someone so left wing. The most likely candidate to form a government in that scenario IMO would be Ken Clarke, which is sad as I like him and wouldn't want his reputation to be ruined forever over this.

 

Of course, the most likely scenario is none of them can come to an agreement within 14 days and we go for an election. In that case, the Prime Minister gets to set the date of the election, in which case Johnson would just schedule it for after Brexit. I reckon we're now more likely than not heading for no deal.

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3 minutes ago, Hestia11 said:

Italy was also a bomb waiting to drop too. The coalition partners never got along that well to begin with.

Absolutely true. The government of change (I think to remember they called it that way) was determined to fail - I was enthusiastic when they took over. The PD was bad for Italy. The parties are too different. I hope they get new election and Salvini will lead a government with Forza Italia and Fratelli d'Italia. 

Maybe you followed the results of the Greek legislative election in July. The center-right party New Democracy won a majority and didn't need to build a coalition. That is so fortunate for them. I read they could already accomplish so much in just one and a half month.

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5 minutes ago, LegolasRedbard said:

It would be very unlikely that Corbyn would become PM in event of a vote of no confidence. Labour made a colossal miscalculation in attacking the Lib Dems so much, as it's destroyed any chance of Swinson supporting Corbyn as a Prime Minister in a government of "national unity" (which is a truly reprehensible term for it but I digress). Additionally, Labour would need the support of TIGFC and the Independents, most of whom left Labour due to their opposition to Labour's anti-semitism and leftwards move. So in that case, they'd need the support of Tory rebels, who would be very unlikely to back someone so left wing. The most likely candidate to form a government in that scenario IMO would be Ken Clarke, which is sad as I like him and wouldn't want his reputation to be ruined forever over this.

 

I agree that Labour has weakened their argument over attacking the Lib Dems (not a good idea since they don't have many Lib-Lab marginals). Again, agree with ChUK. Tory Rebels are actually in talks with him, and are more likely than the Lib Dems to agree to a deal. 

 

6 minutes ago, LegolasRedbard said:

Of course, the most likely scenario is none of them can come to an agreement within 14 days and we go for an election. In that case, the Prime Minister gets to set the date of the election, in which case Johnson would just schedule it for after Brexit. I reckon we're now more likely than not heading for no deal.

I don't agree that this will happen. Corbyn will likely try to cobble a majority together within a few days, if he fails, he'll set someone else on target within a couple more days. The likelier that No-Deal happens, the more pressure there is on the Lib Dems to get a deal through.

 

7 minutes ago, Conservative Elector 2 said:

Absolutely true. The government of change (I think to remember they called it that way) was determined to fail - I was enthusiastic when they took over. The PD was bad for Italy. The parties are too different. I hope they get new election and Salvini will lead a government with Forza Italia and Fratelli d'Italia. 

Maybe you followed the results of the Greek legislative election in July. The center-right party New Democracy won a majority and didn't need to build a coalition. That is so fortunate for them. I read they could already accomplish so much in just one and a half month.

Being on the opposite side of politics of you, Italian politics is hard for me to look at, simply because there are few options for me (as a center-left voter) than the Democratic Party in Italy. I dislike Salvini personally and politically, and Forza Italia is at best opportunistic. The Democrats have no way to gain power, as I don't think they'll be willing to negotiate with Five Star.

I did, sort of? Not that closely to say anything on it, however. 

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5 hours ago, Hestia11 said:

I’ve been following British news for the past couple of weeks like a hawk and I’ve noticed a very important shift on the no-confidence vote rhetoric. It’s changed from Can a vote pass? To who will lead the government when it passes? There are Conservatives openly talking about voting for the no-confidence vote, even if the leader is Jeremy Corbyn. That’s a remarkable change.

 

4 hours ago, vcczar said:

Yeah, at least one Tory MP said they'll support Corbyn over Johnson. 

 

4 hours ago, Conservative Elector 2 said:

If they need a caretaker PM, I hope it will be the former Chancellor of the Exchequer Kenneth Clarke MP. He tried often to lead the tories, so I hope we get him in the PM list - if Johnson cannot hold the post.

it would be nice if U.S. Presidents were held to these kinds of office-threatening reviews of the "confidence of governing and their ability to hold the mandate of the guiding force of policy and representative of the nation," between elections like this. Unfortunately, no doubt the American succession system would completely be take as a tool to destroy any impact this message may actually mean, in truth - at least the message it delivers in parliamentary systems.

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