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vcczar

Approval: Comparing Trump to other Presidents

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Looking at this link: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/

  • Obama was more approved than Trump at any time up to this point in Trump's presidency. 
  • GW Bush was MUCH more approved than Trump at any time up to this point in Trump's presidency. 
  • Clinton once dips below Trump's approval, but not for long. Clinton is otherwise more approved than Trump up to this point in Trump's presidency. 
  • GHW Bush was MUCH more approved than Trump at any time up to this point in Trump's presidency. 
  • Reagan dips below Trump's approval on two occasions---once for an extended time because of a brief recession. Reagan is generally more popular, but spend a good chunk of his first term with a comparable approval rating with Trump. 
  • Carter dipped below Trump on three occasions. Carter is, by this point in Trump's presidency, much less approved than Trump. 
  • Ford dipped below Trump on four occasions, but is otherwise comparable with Trump. 
  • Nixon was more approved than Trump at any time up to this point in Trump's presidency. 
  • LBJ was MUCH more approved than Trump at any time up to this point in Trump's presidency. 
  • Ditto for JFK
  • Ditto for Eisenhower
  • Truman dips below Trump at one point -- an extended period--but is usually much more popular than Trump is at this point in Trump's presidency. 

Overall, Trump's approval doesn't look great for him. If the 2020 election follows the general trend, Trump will not be reelected, but we do get exception here, like with Reagan, who won in a landslide for reelection. There is a stark difference. Prior to the Recession of 1982, Reagan's popularity was extremely high. Trump has never seen high popularity; He's always been unpopular. 

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16 hours ago, vcczar said:

If the 2020 election follows the general trend, Trump will not be reelected

What do you mean here?

Looking at Presidents, Trump is as popular as Obama and Reagan at this point, who both won reelection. He's almost as popular as Clinton, who won reelection.

I'm skeptical of how important these numbers are at this point, though. He's not nearly as popular as H.W. Bush was at this point, but H.W. Bush lost reelection.

To me the thing that stands out is Trump's numbers have held very constant.

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1 hour ago, admin_270 said:

What do you mean here?

Looking at Presidents, Trump is as popular as Obama and Reagan at this point, who both won reelection. He's almost as popular as Clinton, who won reelection.

I'm skeptical of how important these numbers are at this point, though. He's not nearly as popular as H.W. Bush was at this point, but H.W. Bush lost reelection.

To me the thing that stands out is Trump's numbers have held very constant.

He’s most comparable to Ford’s approval. Others dip below him but are usually many times more popular than Trump during this stretch in a presidential term. 

I’m not sure if Trump’s numbers being constant is anything promising for him. In fact, it’s rather damning to not once be popular. 

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Just now, vcczar said:

Others dip below him but are usually many times more popular than Trump during this stretch in a presidential term

Ya, but I'm not sure what you think we can infer from this.

I guess you can argue that this indicates more potential for upside among a larger slice of the electorate for the other Presidents. That perhaps Trump's ceiling (and perhaps floor) is more narrow. That might be so. I don't know if we can really read that into the data, though.

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