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vcczar

10 Reasons Why Trump Might Lose

10 Reasons Trump Might Lose  

21 members have voted

  1. 1. Which of my 10 reasons in the first post are reasons why you might feel optimistic (or pessimistic if you like Trump) that Trump might lose in 2020?

    • 1st
    • 2nd
    • 3rd
    • 4th
    • 5th
    • 6th
    • 7th
    • 8th
    • 9th
    • 10th
    • I'm too scared from 2016 to believe any of these have any impact on defeating Trump. This election will be 2016 all over again, even if Trump is losing in the polls on election day.
    • This entire list is BS! Trump has proved to be an effective president, and he will be reelected.
      0


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I posted this elsewhere. Thought I'd show 10 reasons for optimism in 2020 for those that prefer a Democrat to Trump

  1. He can't even hit an average approval of 47%. He needs to get that for a sustained period of time, I think, to have a good shot. 
  2. He's averaging 42-45% approval despite what is considered a good economy for a reelection bid. 
  3. The midterms show that generally reliably Blue states WI, MI, PA, which barely went for Trump in 2016, regretted voted for him by 2018. 
  4. Trump's main appeal was that he was a change candidate. He won't be the change candidate in 2020. 
  5. The chance to kick Trump out of office is bound to energize the highest Democratic and Independent anti-Trump turnout since 2008, if not before. 
  6. The Democratic nominee (likely to be either Biden or Warren, honestly) is certain to be both a better candidate than Hillary Clinton, but also to have a higher likability and favorability rating than Clinton did. Any of them may have a 10+ Favorability advantage on Trump. 
  7. With Clinton, Bush II, and Obama, we had three two-term presidents in a row for just the second time in our history (Jefferson-Madison-Monroe). Four two-term presidents in a row is unheard of, it's never happened. 
  8. It's been noted that the GOP is seeing a lot of retirements with more likely to follow. This could mean a Democrat has a higher change to win these offices than before. This could translate to higher Democratic turnout in these states since a Democrat has a shot to win some of these elections that might not usually be attainable. 
  9. It says a lot that Bernie Sanders is beating Donald Trump in Texas and North Carolina in a recent poll. While, I don't think Sanders actually would win these states, it says a lot that these traditionally conservative states have a preference to Sanders over Trump, at least on paper. This, despite, Trump presiding over an economy that is doing reasonably well. 
  10. I think moderates in the GOP and anti-Trump conservatives in the GOP will see an advantage in letting (i.e. covertly helping) Trump fail. Trump and his base are unlikely to be the leaders of the party if it collapses after one-term. One-term presidents do not maintain influence on a party. Someone like Charlie Baker of Massachusetts could start a new brand of GOP.

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“If” Trump loses, it’s because of #5.

But I would have bet my house against Trump winning last time, and I would have lost my house.

This time, I’m assuming Trump will win until the official final vote count tells me otherwise.

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48 minutes ago, Actinguy said:

“If” Trump loses, it’s because of #5.

But I would have bet my house against Trump winning last time, and I would have lost my house.

This time, I’m assuming Trump will win until the official final vote count tells me otherwise.

I was equally as shocked. We were prepared to celebrate. FL sent us from celebrant to on warning and PA then made it seem unlikely Clinton would win. I remember at the end saying, “this doesn’t make sense.” As if some glitch happened. 

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10 hours ago, Actinguy said:

“If” Trump loses, it’s because of #5.

But I would have bet my house against Trump winning last time, and I would have lost my house.

This time, I’m assuming Trump will win until the official final vote count tells me otherwise.

I agree with this combined with his 1 and 2 will be the most likely reason for his loss. I'm curious as to which states which states will see the increase in anti-Trump voters, though.

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I’m also wondering if Trump’s retweeting of a Clinton conspiracy theory on Epstein’s death is going to be a last straw with some supporters. 

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11 hours ago, Harris/Ernst 2020 said:

Will you be doing a 10 reasons why trump might win?

That's a good idea. I'll try to come up with 10 reasons and post it when I have time. I might want to just to do a redo of this post, but then just include both sides. 

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15 hours ago, vcczar said:

I’m also wondering if Trump’s retweeting of a Clinton conspiracy theory on Epstein’s death is going to be a last straw with some supporters. 

To be honest, there's a huge overlap with conspiracy theorists and Trump supporters. I'm not saying all conspiracy theorists are Trump supporters, but we need to remember that there was a pizza place in DC that was being harrassed because of a conspiracy theory popular on 4chan. So I doubt Trump implicating Bill Clinton(not exactly a man beloved by the whole nation) would force significant number to stop supporting him. If anything, it might reaffirm those hesitant conspiracy theorists that he is on their side. 

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6 minutes ago, Sunnymentoaddict said:

To be honest, there's a huge overlap with conspiracy theorists and Trump supporters. I'm not saying all conspiracy theorists are Trump supporters, but we need to remember that there was a pizza place in DC that was being harrassed because of a conspiracy theory popular on 4chan. So I doubt Trump implicating Bill Clinton(not exactly a man beloved by the whole nation) would force significant number to stop supporting him. If anything, it might reaffirm those hesitant conspiracy theorists that he is on their side. 

This is more or less what I think is happening with it too. I'm not going to say that Trump retweeting that is helping him, no of course not. I just don't think it's actually hurting him.

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2 minutes ago, Sunnymentoaddict said:

To be honest, there's a huge overlap with conspiracy theorists and Trump supporters. I'm not saying all conspiracy theorists are Trump supporters, but we need to remember that there was a pizza place in DC that was being harrassed because of a conspiracy theory popular on 4chan. So I doubt Trump implicating Bill Clinton(not exactly a man beloved by the whole nation) would force significant number to stop supporting him. If anything, it might reaffirm those hesitant conspiracy theorists that he is on their side. 

"Conspiracy theorist" is NOT a single stance along the political spectrum, nor are their promoted agendas, or whom they attack fixed thereon. It's a blanket term for a specific way of viewing how people process the "mainstream" release of news of information on government activities. Noam Chomsky, Lyndon LaRouche, and David Icke, are/were all classified as "conspiracy theorists," (and I've been called such as well - even on this site), but are not "right-wing" in viewpoint attacking "left-wing conspiracies" or supporters, even remotely, of Trump or 4chan. Let's put things in perspective here, shall we.

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