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vcczar

Predicting the Early States for Democrats

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How do the candidates do in the primaries if the only 10 remaining candidates just before Iowa are Biden, Warren, Harris, Sanders, Buttigieg, Booker, Gabbard, Klobuchar, Castro, and O'Rourke. 

1. Who are the top 3 finishers in Iowa? Who drops out afterwards?

2. Who are the top 3 finishers in New Hampshire? Who drops out afterwards?

3. Who are the top 3 finishers in Nevada? Who drops out?

4. Who are the top 3 finishers in South Carolina? Who drops out?

5. Who is the frontrunner heading into Super Tuesday? 

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9 minutes ago, vcczar said:

How do the candidates do in the primaries if the only 10 remaining candidates just before Iowa are Biden, Warren, Harris, Sanders, Buttigieg, Booker, Gabbard, Klobuchar, Castro, and O'Rourke. 

1. Who are the top 3 finishers in Iowa? Who drops out afterwards?

Warren, Biden, Klobuchar. Nobody drops out.

2. Who are the top 3 finishers in New Hampshire? Who drops out afterwards?

Warren, Biden, Sanders. O'Rourke & Booker drop out.

3. Who are the top 3 finishers in Nevada? Who drops out?

Biden, Harris, Castro. Buttigieg drops out.

4. Who are the top 3 finishers in South Carolina? Who drops out?

Harris, Biden, Castro. Gabbard & Klobuchar drop out.

5. Who is the frontrunner heading into Super Tuesday? 

The remaining order looks like. Biden, Warren, Harris, Castro, Sanders.

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1 hour ago, vcczar said:

How do the candidates do in the primaries if the only 10 remaining candidates just before Iowa are Biden, Warren, Harris, Sanders, Buttigieg, Booker, Gabbard, Klobuchar, Castro, and O'Rourke. 

1. Who are the top 3 finishers in Iowa? Who drops out afterwards?

2. Who are the top 3 finishers in New Hampshire? Who drops out afterwards?

3. Who are the top 3 finishers in Nevada? Who drops out?

4. Who are the top 3 finishers in South Carolina? Who drops out?

5. Who is the frontrunner heading into Super Tuesday? 

1. Biden, Warren, Klobuchar. Castro drops out.

2. Warren, Biden, Sanders. No one drops out.

3. Harris, Warren, Buttigieg. O’Rourke drops out.

4. Harris, Biden, Booker. Gabbard and Booker drop out. (Booker wins no delegates by getting third)

5. Harris is the frontrunner with delegates, but Biden is still the favorite and Harris and Warren narrowly follow. Sanders drops out after Super Tuesday, as does Buttigieg if they don’t win enough states. 

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1.Biden,Bernie,Buttigieg.Beto drops out

2.Bernie,Biden,Warren.Tulsi and Booker drop out.

3.Harris,Warren,Bernie.Nobody.

4.Harris,Biden,Buttigieg.Castro drops out.

5.It will be a 3-way Sanders vs Harris vs Biden race.

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1. Who are the top 3 finishers in Iowa? Who drops out afterwards?

Biden, Harris, Warren

(I guess at this point most of the lesser known have already dropped out)

2. Who are the top 3 finishers in New Hampshire? Who drops out afterwards?

Sanders, Warren, Harris

3. Who are the top 3 finishers in Nevada? Who drops out?

Harris, Sanders, Biden

4. Who are the top 3 finishers in South Carolina? Who drops out?

Harris, Biden, Sanders

5. Who is the frontrunner heading into Super Tuesday? 

Harris

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16 hours ago, vcczar said:

How do the candidates do in the primaries if the only 10 remaining candidates just before Iowa are Biden, Warren, Harris, Sanders, Buttigieg, Booker, Gabbard, Klobuchar, Castro, and O'Rourke. 

1. Who are the top 3 finishers in Iowa? Who drops out afterwards?

2. Who are the top 3 finishers in New Hampshire? Who drops out afterwards?

3. Who are the top 3 finishers in Nevada? Who drops out?

4. Who are the top 3 finishers in South Carolina? Who drops out?

5. Who is the frontrunner heading into Super Tuesday? 

Iowa: Biden, Sanders, Buttigieg.  Klobuchar and Booker drop out.

New Hampshire: Harris, Buttigieg, Warren.  Gabbard drops out.

Nevada: Sanders, Biden, Harris. No drop outs.

South Carolina: Biden, Harris, Warren. No drop outs.

Super Tuesday front runner: Biden, narrowly.  But I think Harris takes the lead on Super Tuesday.

I think Buttigieg, whoever is trailing in Sanders vs Warren, and whoever didn’t take first place in Texas between Castro and O’Rourke (both if they both failed) all drop out after Super Tuesday.

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Here are my predictions:

  • I think Biden, Harris, Buttigieg, Booker, Klobuchar, Castro, and O'Rourke are all battling over the establishment block, and are likely to stifle each other. 
  • I think the block most interested in race, which is obviously a hot issue in this campaign, will be most interested in Biden, Booker, Harris, and to a lesser extent Castro. 
  • I think the block of whites, with no college degree, (i.e. Obama-to-Trump voters) will favor Biden, Buttigieg, O'Rourke, Sanders, and to a much lesser extent Warren. 
  • I think the Progressive Populists--the more vocal wing of the party, but not necessarily the largest wing--favors Sanders, Warren, Gabbard. 
  • I'll add another group, insurgent voters who would not otherwise vote or would vote 3rd party or even might vote for Trump (i.e. My candidate or bust voters) -- Sanders, Gabbard, and to a much lesser extent Biden probably have these. 

With this stated, and considered the Democratic electorate in each state

  • Iowa
    • Warren, Biden, Buttigieg, Sanders, Harris, O'Rourke are the top 5 in Iowa.
    • Biden resists calls to drop out. Sanders resists calls to endorse Warren. 
    • Klobuchar and O'Rourke drop out. 
    • O'Rourke decides to make a last second shot for the US Senate.  
    • Momentum goes to Warren and Buttigieg, the winner and the one that exceeded expectations. 
    • Harris was expected to be 3rd. Media wonders if she's done. 
  • New Hampshire
    • Warren, Buttigieg, Sanders, Biden, Harris are the top 5 in New Hampshire
    • Biden initially resists calls to drop out, but as his polling drops in the next few states significantly, he decides to "pass the torch" to the future. He makes no endorsement. 
    • All others stay in. 
    • Media expect Buttigieg, Harris, or Sanders to get most of Biden's supporters. 
    • Momentum stays with Warren and Buttigieg. 
  • Nevada
    • Buttigieg, Warren, Harris, Sanders, Castro are the top 5. 
    • Buttigieg gains momentum. 
    • Harris claims 3rd as a victory. 
    • Sanders resists calls to drop out and support Warren, as there's fears Warren can't win without Sanders's supporters. 
    • Gabbard drops out and tells her supporters to vote for either Sanders or Warren. 
    • Booker drops out and makes no endorsement. 
  • South Carolina
    • Harris, Buttigieg, Warren, Sanders, Castro are the remaining 5 and finish in this order. 
    • A high-profile meeting between Warren and Sanders takes place. Sanders endorses Warren, but the main point of the meeting is to figure out how Sanders can make the Bernie or Bust voters get excited about Warren. Sanders agrees to campaign frequently and serve as a sort of key adviser. 
    • Castro drops out and pretty much endorses all of the remaining candidates.  
  • Beyond?
    • If the race were left with Harris, Buttigieg, and Warren, and all able to claim momentum one way or another, the race would depend on whether or not Harris or Buttigieg could attract Warren supporters and also on whether or not Harris and Buttigieg don't cancel each other out. Harris has more of an advantage in that she's likely to do better with African-Americans over the other two. When I look at Super Tuesday, I see Harris and Warren coming off as bigger winners than Buttigieg, which means I think he drops out after Super Tuesday. If Warren wins California over Harris, I think Warren is the nominee, if Harris wins California, then she probably is the clear Super Tuesday winner and becomes the nominee. 
    • Another prediction is that I think whomever is the clear winner after Super Tuesday will be the Democratic nominee. I think the Democratic Party will prevent a battle to the Conventions, such as what happened in 2016, which arguably divided the party. Say Harris wins California, Warren drops out and endorses Harris, calling for unity, soon after Buttigieg drops out. After this, all other candidates, including Sanders, endorse Harris, who agrees to name a Progressive as VP. As Harris is a woman of color, it's likely she would name a white male as the VP candidate. Harris wants Jay Inslee or Sherrod Brown, believing they can win the Midwest, but there's question over a Tim Kaine situation in which the ticket doesn't become any more exciting with Inslee or Brown as VP. There's talk of a double-woman ticket--Tulsi Gabbard, Nina Turner, or some other young Progressive that could bring some excitement, but the crucial Midwestern Demographic is unlikley to be excited about a Harris/Gabbard or Harris/Turner ticket. Harris is left with arguably the most exciting choice, but probably the one that she and the DNC most wanted to avoid: Bernie Sanders. A poll is conducted to get feeling about Castro as a VP as a last second bid to avoid this, but Sanders is the exciting choice. 
    • Does Harris/Sanders beat Trump/Pence in WI, MI, PA, or even OH? Do they take FL, NC, IA, AZ, TX, GA? Do they keep VA, NH, CO, ME, MN?

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On ‎7‎/‎20‎/‎2019 at 2:55 PM, vcczar said:

How do the candidates do in the primaries if the only 10 remaining candidates just before Iowa are Biden, Warren, Harris, Sanders, Buttigieg, Booker, Gabbard, Klobuchar, Castro, and O'Rourke. 

1. Who are the top 3 finishers in Iowa? Who drops out afterwards?

2. Who are the top 3 finishers in New Hampshire? Who drops out afterwards?

3. Who are the top 3 finishers in Nevada? Who drops out?

4. Who are the top 3 finishers in South Carolina? Who drops out?

5. Who is the frontrunner heading into Super Tuesday? 

1. Warren, Biden, Harris

Drop: Klobuchar, O'Rourke

2. Warren, Sanders, Biden

Drop: Booker, Gabbard, Castro

3. Warren, Biden, Harris

4. Biden, Harris, Warren

Drop: Buttigieg, Sanders

5. Warren (followed closely by Harris)

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