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Recent NH Poll gives some interesting/telling info

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In 2016  Bernie won the NH primary 60-37 over Hillary.

Fast forward to the most recent Monmouth Poll.

Biden has 36, basically identical to Hillary's total.

Bernie however has just 18 percent.  The remainder being split by the rest of the field.  

Those that think the Biden lead will shrink (I'll admit I'm in that group) might want to pause and assume he continues to get the Hillary segment.  The large field might be the factor that cripple's Bernie, not all the leaders.  Interesting small sampling here. 

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43 minutes ago, HonestAbe said:

In 2016  Bernie won the NH primary 60-37 over Hillary.

Fast forward to the most recent Monmouth Poll.

Biden has 36, basically identical to Hillary's total.

Bernie however has just 18 percent.  The remainder being split by the rest of the field.  

Those that think the Biden lead will shrink (I'll admit I'm in that group) might want to pause and assume he continues to get the Hillary segment.  The large field might be the factor that cripple's Bernie, not all the leaders.  Interesting small sampling here. 

I’m certain that all of Biden’s support isn’t just the Hillary bloc of voters. Some of those probably voted for Bernie in 2016 because they didn’t like Hillary. If the race were between just Biden and Sanders, I wouldn’t expect a 60-37 vote like in 2016. 

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One thing I've concluded, from various attempts to crunch political data over the years, is that many voters don't necessarily think in terms of ideology the way us political junkies do. Particularly among Democrats, I've seen cases of progressive voters coalescing strongly behind a moderate and moderate voters coalescing strongly behind a progressive, as well as primaries where at least some voters are choosing the more progressive option in one race and the more moderate option in another.

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37 minutes ago, RI Democrat said:

One thing I've concluded, from various attempts to crunch political data over the years, is that many voters don't necessarily think in terms of ideology the way us political junkies do. Particularly among Democrats, I've seen cases of progressive voters coalescing strongly behind a moderate and moderate voters coalescing strongly behind a progressive, as well as primaries where at least some voters are choosing the more progressive option in one race and the more moderate option in another.

I agree with this entirely.  There's a wide array of reasons someone would vote for a given candidate, and their top concerns will naturally vary from election to election.  Having 17-20 declared Democrats shifts things even more.  If you had asked me four months ago if I'd support a mayor under the age of 40 as President, I'd say of course not.  But things have changed and now I'm passionately pro-Buttigieg.

Lately "Liberal" seems to have replaced the word "moderate" when just an election or two ago "Liberal" was "far left".  Did the definition of liberal actually change, or did the entire playing field actually move?  I don't know...we won't really know until after the 2020 election, and by then it won't matter because everything will reset again for 2022/2024.  

 

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2 hours ago, Actinguy said:

I agree with this entirely.  There's a wide array of reasons someone would vote for a given candidate, and their top concerns will naturally vary from election to election.  Having 17-20 declared Democrats shifts things even more.  If you had asked me four months ago if I'd support a mayor under the age of 40 as President, I'd say of course not.  But things have changed and now I'm passionately pro-Buttigieg.

Lately "Liberal" seems to have replaced the word "moderate" when just an election or two ago "Liberal" was "far left".  Did the definition of liberal actually change, or did the entire playing field actually move?  I don't know...we won't really know until after the 2020 election, and by then it won't matter because everything will reset again for 2022/2024.  

 

"Liberal," as used in most of the 1800's and very early 1900's in the "White World" (for lack of a better term) was basically very similar to the Mainstream GOP platform, as a note.

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