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Dem Ticket Combination

Democratic Ticket  

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  1. 1. What will the combination for the Dem Ticket be

    • Prez-Male, VP- Female
    • Prez-Female, VP Male
    • Prez-Female, VP Female
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21 minutes ago, HonestAbe said:

What's your prediction for the Dem Ticket Combo?

Right now? Biden/Harris. I’d rather the ticket be something else like Buttigieg/O’Rourke. Ideal ticket would be Sanders/Warren or Warren/Sanders but that would never happen. I think if the nominee is youngish then Sanders should be the VP to keep his voters voting. 

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Sanders as a VP choice makes some sense in terms of extensive experience in the Senate, but if it's Warren he wouldn't be necessary for bringing the party together - would be more important, it seems, if you need to keep Bernie supporters energized and voting, which means might be more important to balance a Biden ticket. I think this would open up a line of attack on age, but on the other hand it would probably be a mistake to pick a Palin-esque figure.

In the end, I don't think even the nominee knows who it will be often until near the end of the selection process.

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17 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

Sanders as a VP choice makes some sense in terms of extensive experience in the Senate, but if it's Warren he wouldn't be necessary for bringing the party together - would be more important, it seems, if you need to keep Bernie supporters energized and voting, which means might be more important to balance a Biden ticket. I think this would open up a line of attack on age, but on the other hand it would probably be a mistake to pick a Palin-esque figure.

In the end, I don't think even the nominee knows who it will be often until near the end of the selection process.

They polled Bernie supporters and something like 20% would vote for Trump over Warren. That's a problem. It also doesn't make any bloody sense. 

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Just now, vcczar said:

something like 20% would vote for Trump over Warren

Be interesting to see total changes. So, if Trump vs. Warren, what % would vote for Trump or 3rd party or not vote? If Trump vs. Biden, what % would vote for Trump or 3rd party or not vote?

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1 minute ago, admin_270 said:

Be interesting to see total changes. So, if Trump vs. Warren, what % would vote for Trump or 3rd party or not vote? If Trump vs. Biden, what % would vote for Trump or 3rd party or not vote?

Yeah it would be. I think more people vote Green if Biden is the nominee, but I also think he gets some of the Free Trade Libertarian vote over Trump. Regardless, I think up to 4% of voters will look elsewhere without an independent running, but probably less. I think Green takes fewer votes this year since Stein isn't running and the likely nominee is probably going to be weaker within her own party than she was. I don't see Green exceeding 0.5%. Libertarians won't have a nominee with as much experience as Johnson/Weld. I doubt they get 3% again. Nevertheless, I think Libertarians take more from Trump than Green takes from Democrats. 

The major factor won't be 3rd parties but voter turnout.  Warren, I think, will have a harder time getting likely supporters to the polls than Biden or Sanders. I hope I am wrong. I think Warren is the only Democrat in the race that could lose the popular vote to Trump, even if Trump beats several of them in the electoral college. 

If Trump wins, I think he wins without the popular vote again, which will bring renewed pressure to get rid of the EC. I think there's also some Trump fatigue--the news about him is getting tiring, I'm sure. I think if someone like Biden runs, who is tolerable (sort of how a Democrat might call Kasich or Huntsman tolerable), they might just stay home and not make the extra effort to vote for Trump. 

Another thing, Trump did well (for a Republican) with labor unions, especially among white men in labor unions in the Midwest. He did much better than Romney did, for instance. Biden is extremely popular among labor unions, and he's already winning endorsements from them. If Biden is the nominee, I think Trump has almost no chance in winning the historically blue general election states of WI, MI, and PA. He might even win OH. 

 

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@admin_270 I should also add that California voted to keep Trump off the ballot unless he shows his taxes. This won't prevent really hurt him, but it would make it almost 100% likely that he doesn't win the popular vote, regardless of the outcome. 

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In our current climate, are you confident a non-populist can win....I'm not sold on that.  

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11 minutes ago, HonestAbe said:

In our current climate, are you confident a non-populist can win....I'm not sold on that.  

Populists of all sorts are political poison and cancer, and when eras where populists are on the rise around the globe (like today) are usually indications of sharp and nasty socio-political issues plaguing all endeavours and harbingers of dire times to come (like in the 1920's-1940's).

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31 minutes ago, vcczar said:

I should also add that California voted to keep Trump off the ballot unless he shows his taxes. This won't prevent really hurt him, but it would make it almost 100% likely that he doesn't win the popular vote, regardless of the outcome. 

That's interesting - if they do so, it makes the popular vote outcome less important, since Trump will argue that he wasn't allowed on the ballot in the most populous state, no?

(For example, if Hillary Clinton had been excluded from the ballot in Texas, she would have lost the popular vote, even though she actually won it with Texas.)

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My understanding is that the California bill, if passed, would keep anyone who doesn't show their tax records off the Presidential primary ballot. Anyone want to explain how this would affect the general election ballot?

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35 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

That's interesting - if they do so, it makes the popular vote outcome less important, since Trump will argue that he wasn't allowed on the ballot in the most populous state, no?

(For example, if Hillary Clinton had been excluded from the ballot in Texas, she would have lost the popular vote, even though she actually won it with Texas.)

That's true under the current system. Democrats can't argue that the popular choice was denied again. I expect Trump's base to vote for him as a write in, so he'll probably still get 20-35% of the vote in CA. If Trump loses the EC, the absence of CA will make his defeat look far worse, of course. 

I wish there was another strategy that would be more effective in forcing Trump to reveal his tax returns. I think having every Democratic candidate revealing theirs would be helpful. Weld should release his too. It will make it seem more likely that Trump is hiding something. Another strategy is twist the arm of the federal election committee to force Trump to do it, but I'm not sure how they'll do that. 

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3 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

My understanding is that the California bill, if passed, would keep anyone who doesn't show their tax records off the Presidential primary ballot. Anyone want to explain how this would affect the general election ballot?

Really? I was of the understanding that CA was working to make it applicable for both the primary and the general. I guess I was wrong. 

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All the articles I am reading talk about it being the primary ballot. First question I have is, how would the RNC respond?

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I find requiring candidates to release 5 years of tax records a puzzling requirement. I can understand wanting to see Trump's tax returns in particular, but as a general requirement? Where I live, we have nothing like that for Prime Minister, nor does anyone talk about having something like that as a requirement.

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2 minutes ago, vcczar said:

 

I wish there was another strategy that would be more effective in forcing Trump to reveal his tax returns. 

I've never understood this outrage. Out of sheer curiosity can someone help me understand why they feel this is so important?  Outside of the "leader of the free world should be transparent" type of argument.  Before feathers get ruffled I'm not going to debate or argue anyone, I'd just like to be enlightened a bit here.  I just don't understand that angle, but I'm open to it if I hear something that changes my mind.  

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10 minutes ago, HonestAbe said:

I've never understood this outrage. Out of sheer curiosity can someone help me understand why they feel this is so important?  Outside of the "leader of the free world should be transparent" type of argument.  Before feathers get ruffled I'm not going to debate or argue anyone, I'd just like to be enlightened a bit here.  I just don't understand that angle, but I'm open to it if I hear something that changes my mind.  

I'm kind of wondering what "free world," or even "free nation," he's believed to be leading here. I view this situation in comparatives (and on point-by-point ranking where different nations are at different tiers in different areas), not the absolute terminology used here. To think otherwise would be horribly naïve.

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For 2020, it seems like this bill, if signed, would increase the chance that anyone running in the Dem primaries will release 5 years of tax returns, but I believe all the major candidates already have or said they will. I'm guessing it won't really affect Trump unless it becomes a close primaries race on the Rep side, although it might affect how the RNC handles delegates from California.

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3 minutes ago, Patine said:

I'm kind of wondering what "free world," or even "free nation," he's believed to be leading here.

Are you saying these are out-moded Cold War terms, or that they never had a basis to begin with?

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I believe this bill only applies to the primaries because applying it to the general election would probably be unconstitutional.

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I’m thinking a Sanders-Gabbard ticket comes about

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6 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

Are you saying these are out-moded Cold War terms, or that they never had a basis to begin with?

"Free," as used for a nation or society, are relative terms. The terms "free world," and "free nation," are used as absolutes. In fact, many Western nations began having a lot of their traditional freedoms eroded slowly during the Cold War, using the "Red Menace" as a justification. The "War on Terror," was used as a further justification in Western nations to erode more freedoms, and much quicker, I might add.

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3 hours ago, vcczar said:

Right now? Biden/Harris. I’d rather the ticket be something else like Buttigieg/O’Rourke. Ideal ticket would be Sanders/Warren or Warren/Sanders but that would never happen. I think if the nominee is youngish then Sanders should be the VP to keep his voters voting. 

Are Sanders' supporters big Donald Trump fans, or something?  

My wife is a Sanders supporter, but she plans to vote for the Democrat no matter what (just as she did in 2016).

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33 minutes ago, jvikings1 said:

I’m thinking a Sanders-Gabbard ticket comes about

Who is that supposed to appeal to, who wouldn't already be standing in line to vote for Sanders alone?

 

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6 minutes ago, Actinguy said:

Who is that supposed to appeal to, who wouldn't already be standing in line to vote for Sanders alone?

 

Tulsi Gabbard doesn't strike me as at all similar to Bernie Sanders in ideology. She's practically a "closet soft fascist."

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