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vcczar

Democratic Primary Candidate Tiers

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Here are my tiers. This is based on who I think has the strongest change of winning the nomination at this points. That is, this is not my order of preference. 

Tier 1 - Biden (for now)

Tier 2 - n/a (Sanders was here before Biden jumped in the race and got a huge bump. Sanders lost some voters to Warren recently too). 

Tier 3 - Warren, Sanders, Buttigieg (coincidentally, my three favorite candidates at this point. Warren is on the rise.)

Tier 4 - Harris and O'Rourke (Both are kind of waiting for Biden to collapse)

Tier 5 - Booker, Castro, Gabbard, Klobuchar, Yang (Yang has upward mobility. Booker will rise too)

Tier 6 - Delaney, Gillibrand, Gravel, Hickenlooper, Inslee (Gravel is getting 1% in a lot of polls despite being more of a bombthrower. Gillibrand could drop to tier 7)

Tier 7 -  Williamson, Meesam, Moulton, Ryan, Swalwell (I think all of them can move up except for Meesam)

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19 minutes ago, vcczar said:

Here are my tiers. This is based on who I think has the strongest change of winning the nomination at this points. That is, this is not my order of preference. 

Tier 1 - Biden (for now)

Tier 2 - n/a (Sanders was here before Biden jumped in the race and got a huge bump. Sanders lost some voters to Warren recently too). 

Tier 3 - Warren, Sanders, Buttigieg (coincidentally, my three favorite candidates at this point. Warren is on the rise.)

Tier 4 - Harris and O'Rourke (Both are kind of waiting for Biden to collapse)

Tier 5 - Booker, Castro, Gabbard, Klobuchar, Yang (Yang has upward mobility. Booker will rise too)

Tier 6 - Delaney, Gillibrand, Gravel, Hickenlooper, Inslee (Gravel is getting 1% in a lot of polls despite being more of a bombthrower. Gillibrand could drop to tier 7)

Tier 7 -  Williamson, Meesam, Moulton, Ryan, Swalwell (I think all of them can move up except for Meesam)

I think Warren won't win because she is looking as a perfect card for a Trump victory.

46% of Democrats told their vote would also depend of the ability of the nominee to beat Trump.

So Buttigieg O Rourke and Harris might have chances, but maybe more But and O Rourke to replace Biden.

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2 minutes ago, Edouard said:

I think Warren won't win because she is looking as a perfect card for a Trump victory.

46% of Democrats told their vote would also depend of the ability of the nominee to beat Trump.

So Buttigieg O Rourke and Harris might have chances, but maybe more But and O Rourke to replace Biden.

I'm not going to disagree with what you say about Warren. She is my favorite candidate, but I also think she's the least likely to defeat Trump. For this reason, I don't want her to win, but I do hope she is competitive enough for Biden to adopt her policy on Student Loan forgiveness and some other things. 

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1 minute ago, vcczar said:

I'm not going to disagree with what you say about Warren. She is my favorite candidate, but I also think she's the least likely to defeat Trump. For this reason, I don't want her to win, but I do hope she is competitive enough for Biden to adopt her policy on Student Loan forgiveness and some other things. 

I agree!

I'm motivated by Beto personnaly, he's definitively the kind of Democrat I would be

It could look strange but I have the feeling Biden has big chances to lose, either to Sanders either to someone else

I do not believe he will win the nomination, but if he would then I am 2 tierces sure he would win the presidency

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3 hours ago, vcczar said:

Here are my tiers. This is based on who I think has the strongest change of winning the nomination at this points. That is, this is not my order of preference. 

Tier 1 - Biden (for now)

Tier 2 - n/a (Sanders was here before Biden jumped in the race and got a huge bump. Sanders lost some voters to Warren recently too). 

Tier 3 - Warren, Sanders, Buttigieg (coincidentally, my three favorite candidates at this point. Warren is on the rise.)

Tier 4 - Harris and O'Rourke (Both are kind of waiting for Biden to collapse)

Tier 5 - Booker, Castro, Gabbard, Klobuchar, Yang (Yang has upward mobility. Booker will rise too)

Tier 6 - Delaney, Gillibrand, Gravel, Hickenlooper, Inslee (Gravel is getting 1% in a lot of polls despite being more of a bombthrower. Gillibrand could drop to tier 7)

Tier 7 -  Williamson, Meesam, Moulton, Ryan, Swalwell (I think all of them can move up except for Meesam)

Are you referring to the poll where Biden went to 39% because if I remember right in the pole they didn't have enough response from people under 45 so it doesn't take into account younger people who are more likely to support Sanders, Buttigieg and Warren. 

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35 minutes ago, Dr. Insano said:

Are you referring to the poll where Biden went to 39% because if I remember right in the pole they didn't have enough response from people under 45 so it doesn't take into account younger people who are more likely to support Sanders, Buttigieg and Warren. 

It's perfectly possible there truly are 39% of people who replied Biden

The difference is, how the vote is strong

For example, currently the Conservatives in Canada are at 40% while Trudeau is at 27%

But when Canadians have to answer who would form the best government, 30% reply Liberal (Trudeau) and 25% Conservatives.

Biden's vote is mainly pushed by opinion pollings saying he is the best Trump's opponent.

Democrats really want to beat Trump in 2020 as a matter of urgency.

Thus polls can make win Sanders too.

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3 minutes ago, Edouard said:

It's perfectly possible there truly are 39% of people who replied Biden

The difference is, how the vote is strong

For example, currently the Conservatives in Canada are at 40% while Trudeau is at 27%

But when Canadians have to answer who would form the best government, 30% reply Liberal (Trudeau) and 25% Conservatives.

Biden's vote is mainly pushed by opinion pollings saying he is the best Trump's opponent.

Democrats really want to beat Trump in 2020 as a matter of urgency.

Thus polls can make win Sanders too.

It'll be interesting to see how the polls adjust once the first debate happens. I feel like Sanders, O'Rourke and another candidate will rise in the polls 

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Just now, Dr. Insano said:

It'll be interesting to see how the polls adjust once the first debate happens. I feel like Sanders, O'Rourke and another candidate will rise in the polls 

I think too!

I watched first rally of Biden in Pen, it's clear he is playing on his ability to flip Pennsilvania as a big matter to vote for him.

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Just now, Edouard said:

I think too!

I watched first rally of Biden in Pen, it's clear he is playing on his ability to flip Pennsilvania as a big matter to vote for him.

I do severely hope that this year the Democratic primary will be less toxic and divisive as 2016. I have my critiques of Joe Biden but I don't think he has connections to the DNC and the media like Clinton did. I am looking forward to the debates though, while I am a Sanders supporter I am definitely willing to hear the other candidates out and  if they are genuine in evolving on certain issues I definitely welcome that

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8 minutes ago, Dr. Insano said:

I do severely hope that this year the Democratic primary will be less toxic and divisive as 2016. I have my critiques of Joe Biden but I don't think he has connections to the DNC and the media like Clinton did. I am looking forward to the debates though, while I am a Sanders supporter I am definitely willing to hear the other candidates out and  if they are genuine in evolving on certain issues I definitely welcome that

This primary will be unic

In 2008 there were 10-12 democrats because it almost was a presidency ticket at the end of the race and everybody was aware of this

Same for Republicans in 2015 and the reason why they were 15

But there, we reach a record of Democratic candidates from every sides of the Dem party

In few months from the Midterm, a new Democratic rep raised, not only Kamala but Beto, But, Cortez (even if I disagree with)

About 2016 Sanders could more have tied the vote but Clinton had with her a lot of clans, including Obama's allies in return for 2008 withdrawal.

What I do not understand is why Sanders' vote falled of 20% since primaries, Warren and Kamala really damaged his basis.

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Recent Emerson poll found 1/4 of Sanders supporters said they’d vote Trump over another Dem candidate nominee. And it begins....

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3 hours ago, HonestAbe said:

Recent Emerson poll found 1/4 of Sanders supporters said they’d vote Trump over another Dem candidate nominee. And it begins....

Again, they are cheated by the broken, corrupt, and rigged American partisan system, if such a choice is all their left with. :(

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Tier 1 (Front Runner)  - Biden

Tier 2 - (Challengers) Sanders, Buttigieg

Tier 3 - (Should be a challenger, but isn't) Warren

Tier 4 - (Should be in the running, but aren't) Booker, Harris, Klobuchar, 

Tier 5 - (Only running because there's a million candidates and, who knows?   Chaos is a ladder...) Gillibrand, Hickenlooper, Inslee, Beto, 

Tier 6 - (Only running to boost their profile for future considerations)  Castro,  Gabbard

Tier 7 - (Only running because they didn't have anything else to do today) Delaney, Gravel, Messam, Moulton, Ryan, Swalwell, Williamson, Yang.  

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48 minutes ago, Actinguy said:

Tier 1 (Front Runner)  - Biden

Tier 2 - (Challengers) Sanders, Buttigieg

Tier 3 - (Should be a challenger, but isn't) Warren

Tier 4 - (Should be in the running, but aren't) Booker, Harris, Klobuchar, 

Tier 5 - (Only running because there's a million candidates and, who knows?   Chaos is a ladder...) Gillibrand, Hickenlooper, Inslee, Beto, 

Tier 6 - (Only running to boost their profile for future considerations)  Castro,  Gabbard

Tier 7 - (Only running because they didn't have anything else to do today) Delaney, Gravel, Messam, Moulton, Ryan, Swalwell, Williamson, Yang.  

One of your tiers should probably be "single issue" candidates. These are ones who are running just to get an issue a major focus in a platform: Inslee (Climate Change), Moulton (National Security), Gravel (generic progressive reform). I think Ryan should be in your tier 6, since he's running just to generate more attention as Pelosi's successor. The other US Reps might be doing the same. I think Gabbard is just trying to run to become the heir of Bernie Sanders. She'll drop out if it helps Bernie win IA. 

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