Jump to content
270soft Forum
Guest

New Washington Post/ABC Poll

Recommended Posts

Guest

Just released today (Sunday 4/28) shows 53% of democratic voters as undecided.  Only two candidates poll over 5% (Biden and Sanders) when given the option of saying undecided.  Valuable poll in that those not listed as undecided are likely very "rock solid" in their support, and gives us a better idea of where the "bloated" numbers are and how much this could swing to anyone.  11 of the "major" candidates polled at 1% or 0% when asked the question with an undecided option available.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

Do you have a link to the poll?

I saw this poll as well. Most polls are misleading because they don't really put a priority on undecided voters. The phrasing of a question also impacts the result.

I many Democrats have an outright favorite at this moment--maybe Biden and Sanders supporters, which is one reason why they're leading in the polls. I have about 5 candidates I like, maybe more. If I were taking the poll, and were forced to name someone, it might change day-to-day. I would put undecided if that's an option. I also have the candidates I like the most: Sanders and Warren. And then those that I might vote for because they could be more electable: Biden and Buttigieg, the latter once his name recognition increases. O'Rourke and Yang are other people I like. I like Gravel too, but I don't take him seriously. He seems to be attacking Democrats more than Republicans. The attacks are justifiable but I think it will hurt Democrat support in the general if he gets more attention. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm not surprised by a 50%, because we are really early. Trump wasn't even on the list of candidates being polled at this pointed in 2015.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
56 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

I'm not surprised by a 50%, because we are really early. Trump wasn't even on the list of candidates being polled at this pointed in 2015.

And then the media started attacking him at some point. Despite their endless condemnation of each other, I believe Trump and the American media are each others' best friends - in a parasitic sort of way. I firmly believe Trump would not have surged, not have won the Primaries, and not have won the GE AT ALL if it were not for the endless barrage of attacks by the U.S. media (and the free publicity, and putting Trump first and foremost in everyone's mind, even if only in a negative light), and, indeed, conversely, the media has gotten record ratings in their political news (and personality-driven "news" - with quotations - shows) because of Trump. The best thing that ever happened to either, each other's best friends, in a parasitic way, despite each other viciously denouncing the other.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, admin_270 said:

I'm not surprised by a 50%, because we are really early. Trump wasn't even on the list of candidates being polled at this pointed in 2015.

Yeah, and arguably only Sanders and Biden are the two nationally known Democrats(it is debatable if Warren should fall into that group). It is months till the first proper debate, and even longer till the Iowa Caucus; so I am not suprised that Democratic voters are currently undecided. The fact that the former VP is polling at a consistent 20-30% is indicative of an appetite for something different- or atleast to window shop for some time. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Patine said:

And then the media started attacking him at some point. Despite their endless condemnation of each other, I believe Trump and the American media are each others' best friends - in a parasitic sort of way. I firmly believe Trump would not have surged, not have won the Primaries, and not have won the GE AT ALL if it were not for the endless barrage of attacks by the U.S. media (and the free publicity, and putting Trump first and foremost in everyone's mind, even if only in a negative light), and, indeed, conversely, the media has gotten record ratings in their political news (and personality-driven "news" - with quotations - shows) because of Trump. The best thing that ever happened to either, each other's best friends, in a parasitic way, despite each other viciously denouncing the other.

I agree 100% the mainstream media is kind of fake news like Trump says but just not in the way he thinks. In 2016 when candidates Like Bernie Sanders and John Kasich wer actually connecting with people and had the highest approval ratings the media was forcing Clinton and Trump on us and that's why I will never watch MSNBC or CNN or Fox ever again because are tools of the establishment... just like Trump. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, Dr. Insano said:

I agree 100% the mainstream media is kind of fake news like Trump says but just not in the way he thinks. In 2016 when candidates Like Bernie Sanders and John Kasich wer actually connecting with people and had the highest approval ratings the media was forcing Clinton and Trump on us and that's why I will never watch MSNBC or CNN or Fox ever again because are tools of the establishment... just like Trump. 

Definitely agree with this. Cable news in general is terrible. I occasionally watch a bit of BBC for a better international perspective than I’d get from just sifting through online headlines and reading the most interesting ones, and give a minute each to Fox and MSNBC for fun. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
23 hours ago, vcczar said:

I saw this poll as well. Most polls are misleading because they don't really put a priority on undecided voters. The phrasing of a question also impacts the result.

I many Democrats have an outright favorite at this moment--maybe Biden and Sanders supporters, which is one reason why they're leading in the polls. I have about 5 candidates I like, maybe more. If I were taking the poll, and were forced to name someone, it might change day-to-day. I would put undecided if that's an option. I also have the candidates I like the most: Sanders and Warren. And then those that I might vote for because they could be more electable: Biden and Buttigieg, the latter once his name recognition increases. O'Rourke and Yang are other people I like. I like Gravel too, but I don't take him seriously. He seems to be attacking Democrats more than Republicans. The attacks are justifiable but I think it will hurt Democrat support in the general if he gets more attention. 

Yeah, I was basically "Anyone but Trump...probably Biden, but gosh he's old, I don't know, Warren maybe?  Not that she's much younger.  Booker's okay too, I'm just not sure yet whether his powerful speeches have actual heart behind them or if he's just a great performer.  Hey, maybe Sherrod Brown...oh, he's not running?  Okay.  Well, in that case...."

I figured I'd watch the debates and figure it out from there.  That's what I did in 2008 and 2016.  Watched both parties' primary debates and made my choices based on those performances.

Then I discovered Buttigieg and every single time I learn something new about him, I'm impressed all over again.  So now if a pollster asked me, I'd be saying "Buttigieg!" before they even finished the question.  But before I found him, I'd realistically be in the undecided category.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Actinguy said:

Yeah, I was basically "Anyone but Trump...probably Biden, but gosh he's old, I don't know, Warren maybe?  Not that she's much younger.  Booker's okay too, I'm just not sure yet whether his powerful speeches have actual heart behind them or if he's just a great performer.  Hey, maybe Sherrod Brown...oh, he's not running?  Okay.  Well, in that case...."

I figured I'd watch the debates and figure it out from there.  That's what I did in 2008 and 2016.  Watched both parties' primary debates and made my choices based on those performances.

Then I discovered Buttigieg and every single time I learn something new about him, I'm impressed all over again.  So now if a pollster asked me, I'd be saying "Buttigieg!" before they even finished the question.  But before I found him, I'd realistically be in the undecided category.

I watch all the debates, even though I know I'll vote Democrat regardless. This isn't about party loyalty, it's ideological loyalty. I'll vote for the more progressive party that has a chance at winning 270 votes. If that party every becomes the Green party, I'll vote Green. If, somehow, the Republicans become more progressive than Democrats, I'll become a Republican. 

First debates I watched were 2004. I may have watched or witnessed parts of the debates in 1988, 1992, 1996, and 2000. The earliest election I remember is 1988; although, I was alive for 1984 and newborn for the 1980 election. 

I like Buttigieg as a candidate a lot. However, what's worrying is this: He has almost no support among minorities, and he has very limited support for those without a college education making less than $50k. This could change, but there's the possibility that his avenues of support are narrow, and other are kind of in the way of him expanding his support where it currently is. 

I like Warren a lot, but I don't want her to win, she is the most net unfavorable candidate for the Democrats, and the on that comes closest to Clinton's net unfavorable. She shouldn't be made VP either; although, there's a chance that happens. 

Biden's support is stronger post-announcement, and despite the scandals, than I expected. I'm also thinking it is less likely Sanders can win, since he should be polling higher since there are less candidates in the progressive lane than in the establishment lane. 

Nevertheless, I think not having Sanders on the ticket will hurt Democrats, since many Sanders supporters (although, not me) are Bernie or Bust voters. There's a significant number of these that could be the deciding factor in WI, MI, PA, and possibly TX, FL, NC, OH, IA. The ticket would be decrepit but imagine Biden/Sanders? You would keep the Bernie supporters from staying home or voting Trump or Green. You'd have Biden still taking moderate independents, even with Sanders on the ticket, since it would be understood by the logical moderate that Sanders is one the ticket for votes, and will likely only get one major policy in Biden's administration--even more affordable healthcare, which is something everyone is concerned about. 

Polls are showing that Biden is strong with African-American voters as well, which could help in NC, MI, and FL. 

Biden/Buttigieg would also be interesting, but I think it wouldn't be as helpful bringing people to the polls, since they're too similar. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, vcczar said:

I  like Buttigieg as a candidate a lot. However, what's worrying is this: He has almost no support among minorities, and he has very limited support for those without a college education making less than $50k. This could change, but there's the possibility that his avenues of support are narrow, and other are kind of in the way of him expanding his support where it currently is. 

Biden's support is stronger post-announcement, and despite the scandals, than I expected. I'm also thinking it is less likely Sanders can win, since he should be polling higher since there are less candidates in the progressive lane than in the establishment lane. 

Nevertheless, I think not having Sanders on the ticket will hurt Democrats, since many Sanders supporters (although, not me) are Bernie or Bust voters. There's a significant number of these that could be the deciding factor in WI, MI, PA, and possibly TX, FL, NC, OH, IA. The ticket would be decrepit but imagine Biden/Sanders? You would keep the Bernie supporters from staying home or voting Trump or Green. You'd have Biden still taking moderate independents, even with Sanders on the ticket, since it would be understood by the logical moderate that Sanders is one the ticket for votes, and will likely only get one major policy in Biden's administration--even more affordable healthcare, which is something everyone is concerned about. 

 

Re: Buttigieg minority/uneducated support:  Agreed, but that will change.  Literally no one knew who he was at the start just a couple months ago, now he's at 7%.  As he grows in recognition, he'll naturally need to start introducing himself to new communities.  He's already openly talking about this need for diversity.  I think the fact that he is an Afghanistan War Veteran will help a great deal with the low income-no college crowd.  Racial minority support may be harder, but being a millennial, I feel that he'll be able to address this in a more authentic way than the 68-78-year olds running in this race.

Re: Sanders:  I've said this before, but I think Trump murders Sanders in the general election.  "THE COMMUNISTS ARE COMING!"...regardless of its veracity as a statement...simply plays VERY well in the great lakes region.  

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

@vcczar One possible Trump attack I see is "Voting for Biden/Bernie is just a vote to elect Nancy Pelosi President!"

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
30 minutes ago, Reagan04 said:

@vcczar One possible Trump attack I see is "Voting for Biden/Bernie is just a vote to elect Nancy Pelosi President!"

He will say that regardless of the ticket. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
32 minutes ago, Reagan04 said:

@vcczar One possible Trump attack I see is "Voting for Biden/Bernie is just a vote to elect Nancy Pelosi President!"

I mean that would probably work with Biden, because a lot of progressives already distrust him. I think for Bernie it depends on who he chooses as his running mate. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, vcczar said:

He will say that regardless of the ticket. 

Agree.  If the claim is that Bernie, of all people, is in cahoots with Pelosi...then that line of attack will be used against literally any Democrat.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
22 minutes ago, Actinguy said:

Agree.  If the claim is that Bernie, of all people, is in cahoots with Pelosi...then that line of attack will be used against literally any Democrat.

 

23 minutes ago, Dr. Insano said:

I mean that would probably work with Biden, because a lot of progressives already distrust him. I think for Bernie it depends on who he chooses as his running mate. 

 

26 minutes ago, vcczar said:

He will say that regardless of the ticket. 

No no no, the attack isn't about being in cahoots. It's that it LITERALLY is a vote to make Pelosi the actual President because upon the Death (age jab) of the President and VP, the Speaker becomes President.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Reagan04 said:

 

 

No no no, the attack isn't about being in cahoots. It's that it LITERALLY is a vote to make Pelosi the actual President because upon the Death (age jab) of the President and VP, the Speaker becomes President.

Oh!

Well, in that case, Nancy Pelosi will be 80 years old when the next Presidency starts.  I'd put her odds of dying first equal to either of them.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Actinguy said:

Oh!

Well, in that case, Nancy Pelosi will be 80 years old when the next Presidency starts.  I'd put her odds of dying first equal to either of them.

 

Also, what happened to Vice presidents?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Actinguy said:

Oh!

Well, in that case, Nancy Pelosi will be 80 years old when the next Presidency starts.  I'd put her odds of dying first equal to either of them.

 

Well then I suppose it's a vote for Chuck Grassley! Who is 85.....

Then I guess the next President is really Biden's Secretary of State!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Actinguy said:

Oh!

Well, in that case, Nancy Pelosi will be 80 years old when the next Presidency starts.  I'd put her odds of dying first equal to either of them.

 

So hello President Mitch McConnell ( God I just threw up in my mouth a little bit ) edit: nevermind Reagan was right

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Dr. Insano said:

So hello President Mitch McConnell ( God I just threw up in my mouth a little bit )

No Actually! Common misconception is that it goes to the Senate Majority Leader when it would actually be President Pro Tempore Chuck Grassley, who is 85! So I suppose the next President is Biden's Secretary of State.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Reagan04 said:

No Actually! Common misconception is that it goes to the Senate Majority Leader when it would actually be President Pro Tempore Chuck Grassley, who is 85! So I suppose the next President is Biden's Secretary of State.

You were right, for some reason I got the president pro tempore mixed with the Senate Majority Leader

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, Reagan04 said:

No Actually! Common misconception is that it goes to the Senate Majority Leader when it would actually be President Pro Tempore Chuck Grassley, who is 85! So I suppose the next President is Biden's Secretary of State.

At that age, Grassley sound more like the Father of the Senate (in the British Parliamentary tradition). :P

But indeed, you are very correct. Party majority and minority leaders and whips in either chamber don't exist on paper in Constitutional reckoning as positions mentioned ONCE - nor even do actual political themselves, interestingly enough. The Constitution is UTTERLY SILENT on the institution.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Also I disagree that Trump versus Bernie would be a landslide either way. To say that Trump would win just by yelling communist is just wrong. Being in Northeast Ohio a place where Trump did a lot better than most Republicans I know a lot of union workers who voted for Trump, a lot of them want Healthcare, a living wage, for us to stop sending their kids to unnecessary wars. A close friend of mine who actually voted for Trump in 2016 just left the Republican Party to vote for Bernie Sanders in 2020. A lot of people are seeing through Trump to the fact that he is not an anti-establishment populist. Donald Trump is the establishment with mean tweets. I believe Bernie would beat him, by winning the Midwestern states that Hillary lost (Michigan,  Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Maybe Iowa and Ohio) I think Trump would still win Florida and North Carolina but overall I think Bernie would win by about 3 to 5% in a popular vote. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...