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Conservative Elector 2

Joe Biden seems to be in

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I once thought Biden might be the best candidate of the Democrats, but since the whole allegations of me too I am not so sure anymore. Currently I am on the Yang gang for the Democratic primary.

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Biden already ran for President twice before, and those runs ended terrible.  He is a likable guy in the background, but not Presidential candidate material (and almost 80 years old).

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Seth Moulton is about to jump in too

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I think he's a wonderful man who will have a very poorly run campaign.

I was initially strongly in Biden's court, but I've seen been wowed by Pete Buttigieg.  I'll likely even donate to Pete's campaign when I've never donated before.  Just gotta finish paying off this damned tax bill first.

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I think the comments on this board are sometimes an outlier of general trends, but sometimes they are precursors. If the latter, Biden's toast and Buttigieg has a serious chance at getting into the top 3. It will be interesting to see how the sentiment re Buttigieg and Yang goes - whether it will turn out to be the former or latter. My sense with Yang is he can go to 5% or 10% max, while Buttigieg much higher, maybe 25-30%.

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1 hour ago, vcczar said:

Seth Moulton is about to jump in too

I'm wondering exactly what all these Reps are thinking running for President.

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Just now, admin_270 said:

I'm wondering exactly what all these Reps are thinking running for President.

I'm not sure the significance of prior political position or experience anymore, since a showman, con artist, and poorer-quality businessman than he lets on with absolutely no previous political position or experience, who MAY well have only entered the race as a publicity stunt and not intended to win, and who shows day in and day out his political incompetence, is in the White House right now.

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@Patine

I've argued that experience matters less in a Presidential campaign now because of the precedent of Obama and Trump in another thread, so no argument on that.

But my question is, why are all these Reps thinking *they* have a significant chance of winning? Or are they running for other reasons?

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3 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

I'm wondering exactly what all these Reps are thinking running for President.

Theoretically, the larger the field, the easier it should be to leap up to the top in IA and NH. However, there are two other factors that may be in play 1) Voters seem to like fresh faces, once they get to know the fresh face, which explains Buttigieg's rise. A US Rep can appear as a fresh face, but can also claim political experience. 2) Many of these Reps may be positioning themselves for higher office. Swalwell may try to replace Harris if she wins. Tim Ryan may be aiming for Speaker or Ohio Governor. O'Rourke may try to run for TX governor. Moulton may try to replace Warren or Markey as Senator, or may try to run for governor. Even Buttigieg, if he isn't the nominee, may run for governor of IN. 

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1 minute ago, admin_270 said:

@Patine

I've argued that experience matters less in a Presidential campaign now because of the precedent of Obama and Trump in another thread, so no argument on that.

But my question is, why are all these Reps thinking *they* have a significant chance of winning? Or are they running for other reasons?

I think this question would be more relevant in the Roman Republic, running for Consul, where members of the Legislative Assemblies (the closest equivalent to the modern U.S. House) were mostly faceless and nameless situational lawmakers with very short terms, and most Consuls were from the ranks of Senators, Magistrates, and war hero Generals. I'm not sure most U.S. voters care as much these days.

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Just now, admin_270 said:

Care as much about what?

Title or position of candidates.

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6 minutes ago, Patine said:

Title or position of candidates.

Ya, I get that. But why do these Reps think they stand out in other ways, beyond the existing field?

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4 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

Ya, I get that. But why do these Reps think they stand out in other ways, beyond the existing field?

I, myself, would guess they EACH believe they EACH offer something different to the conversation, as they INDIVIDUALLY see it, outside of just being incumbent members of the House of Representatives. That would be my guess.

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27 minutes ago, vcczar said:

Theoretically, the larger the field, the easier it should be to leap up to the top in IA and NH. However, there are two other factors that may be in play 1) Voters seem to like fresh faces, once they get to know the fresh face, which explains Buttigieg's rise. A US Rep can appear as a fresh face, but can also claim political experience. 2) Many of these Reps may be positioning themselves for higher office. Swalwell may try to replace Harris if she wins. Tim Ryan may be aiming for Speaker or Ohio Governor. O'Rourke may try to run for TX governor. Moulton may try to replace Warren or Markey as Senator, or may try to run for governor. Even Buttigieg, if he isn't the nominee, may run for governor of IN. 

You mentioned this in a different thread but mentioning TXGOV made me think of it again, could you link that article about gubernatorial power by state you were talking about?

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30 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

I'm wondering exactly what all these Reps are thinking running for President.

They’re thinking “I’m young enough to survive this.”

The TOP THREE front runners are an average of 74 years old.  AVERAGE.

Can Moulton outpolls Biden or Sanders?  No.  But if one of them drops dead, then theres going to be chaos.  And, to steal a line from GOT, chaos is a ladder.

 

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19 minutes ago, Reagan04 said:

You mentioned this in a different thread but mentioning TXGOV made me think of it again, could you link that article about gubernatorial power by state you were talking about?

I'll have to see if I can find it. I just found something that eludes to the study I read awhile back: https://www.cga.ct.gov/2000/rpt/2000-R-0505.htm

The one I had read listed them all. I can't seem to find it though. Texas is odd. Some argue that the Lt Gov has more power than the Governor in Texas. However, when I lived in Texas, it kind of seemed like the governor or lt governor were both rather invisible, and the legislature seemed to get most of the attention. This would reflect that weakness in the executive. 

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13 hours ago, admin_270 said:

I'm wondering exactly what all these Reps are thinking running for President.

I agree with @Patine to an extent. Maybe it is my personal bias at play, but Congressman Tim Ryan has no real path to winning the nomination. And in my eyes, he is merely using this campaign to elevate his platform to run for a statewide office in Ohio. I'm sure our Ohio residents could probably confirm my suspicion. 
 

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On 4/20/2019 at 7:16 AM, Sunnymentoaddict said:

I agree with @Patine to an extent. Maybe it is my personal bias at play, but Congressman Tim Ryan has no real path to winning the nomination. And in my eyes, he is merely using this campaign to elevate his platform to run for a statewide office in Ohio. I'm sure our Ohio residents could probably confirm my suspicion. 
 

I agree for sure, I think he's trying to raise his notoriety to either running against Mike Dewine or Rob Portman in 2022. He is my congressman and for the most part I do like him.

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https://www.msnbc.com/andrea-mitchell-reports/watch/biden-to-officially-announce-2020-presidential-run-thursday-1503848003851 

Article says he'll formally run on Thursday. If someone posts the clip of him announcing and tags me in it (unfortunately i've been too busy to lurk much) I will publicly admit that I was wrong and apologize to any forum members I may have argued with about it and follow through with downing an entire Tabasco bottle on camera and post it in this thread (it'll be a while though bc I have prom next Saturday). I actually would have bet my entire savings on him not running. Very interesting.

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