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Early Dem Polls

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Two national polls with a margin of error at 1% have been released with April sampling, here are their averages. 

Biden 31

Sanders 24

Harris 8.5

O'Rourke 8

Warren 7

Booker 4

Buttigieg 4

Klobuchar 2

Gillibrand 1.5

Everyone else 1 or less percent.   

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2 hours ago, HonestAbe said:

Two national polls with a margin of error at 1% have been released with April sampling, here are their averages. 

Biden 31

Sanders 24

Harris 8.5

O'Rourke 8

Warren 7

Booker 4

Buttigieg 4

Klobuchar 2

Gillibrand 1.5

Everyone else 1 or less percent.   

I think this is a trend we will see continue. Biden and Sanders forming the top tier between 20-35 percent, Harris, O'Rourke, Warren (maybe joined by Buttigieg) at 5-10% forming the middle tier, and the bottom tier of Klobuchar, Gillibrand, Booker (currently Buttigieg) between 2-4%, with everyone else below it (also-ran tier). 

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In addition to the Emerson poll, two other polls dropped yesterday.  The average of those three polls is as follows

Biden 27.3

Sanders 22.6

Harris 8

O'Rourke 7.6

Warren 6

Buttigieg 6

Booker 3

All others below 3

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In addition you can look at things this.  These top 7 brought in about 80% of the vote.  The "others" brought in 20%.  If you remove that 20% and rearrange percentages to match just the 80% in this crop you see a slightly clearer picture of where these candidates stand.

Biden 34%

Sanders 28.25%

Harris 10%

O'Rourke 9.5%

Warren 7.5%

Buttigieg 7.5%

Booker 3.75%

For those that think as people drop out there will be a big boost to the non-top two it may shake out more like this.  

A third way to look at these numbers is to operate on a premise that all of those 20% will not vote Biden or Bernie because they would already be doing that if they wanted to, with their strong name ID.  If you take that 20% and only apply it to the non-top two candidates, at the same rate they currently have compared to each other it looks like this.

Biden 27.3

Sanders 22.6

Harris 13.5

O'Rourke 11.9

Warren 10

Buttigieg 10

Booker 5

 

Gonna be hard for more than 3 people to come away with delegates in any single state.  More than 4 will be very unlikely.  

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