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vcczar

2020 General Election Predictions

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Biden vs. Trump 353-185 (Biden wins pop vote): https://www.270towin.com/maps/N8600

Sanders vs. Trump 260-278 (Sanders wins pop vote): https://www.270towin.com/maps/dQ79v

Warren vs. Trump 250-288 (Trump wins pop vote): https://www.270towin.com/maps/dQ79v

Harris vs. Trump 259-279 (Harris wins pop vote): https://www.270towin.com/maps/K8neG

O'Rourke vs. Biden 282-256 (O'Rourke wins pop vote): https://www.270towin.com/maps/DbQ19

Buttigieg vs. Trump 272-266 (Buttigieg wins pop vote): https://www.270towin.com/maps/xL0bX

Booker vs. Trump 306-232 (Booker wins pop vote): https://www.270towin.com/maps/g4V9E

Yang vs. Trump 231-307 (Trump wins pop vote): https://www.270towin.com/maps/Pmwl3

Castro vs. Trump 281-257 (Castro wins the pop vote): https://www.270towin.com/maps/r49bX

Hickenlooper vs. Trump 262-276 (Hickenlooper wins the pop vote: https://www.270towin.com/maps/1ek03

 

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Biden vs Trump - Trump wins - https://www.270towin.com/maps/4X8Le 

I will literally fall out of my chair if Trump doesn't win the election. I would put it above 90% even if Biden wins the nomination. My above link is an extremely conservative estimate and I guarantee Trump's victory will be even bigger.

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8 minutes ago, ThePotatoWalrus said:

Biden vs Trump - Trump wins - https://www.270towin.com/maps/4X8Le 

I will literally fall out of my chair if Trump doesn't win the election. I would put it above 90% even if Biden wins the nomination. My above link is an extremely conservative estimate and I guarantee Trump's victory will be even bigger.

I'd love to see your liberal estimate for Trump Vs. Warren

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1 minute ago, ThePotatoWalrus said:

Not landslide territory, but close: https://www.270towin.com/maps/JWn3W 

It's interesting that you see Virginia as a liberal stronghold. The state was oh so close in 2016 if I recall. 

Edit: I was wrong. I had thought it was under 3% but it was about 5%.

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1 minute ago, Herbert Hoover said:

It's interesting that you see Virginia as a liberal stronghold. The state was oh so close in 2016 if I recall. 

Edit: I was wrong. I had thought it was under 3% but it was about 5%.

You might be thinking of Minnesota for that one. Was like 2% I think. But yeah Virginia and Colorado aren't swing-states regardless of what the experts say IMO.

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I literally disagree with about all of these. 

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I agree with nearly all of the outcomes but I think Virginia is a bit bluer than you give it credit for. I also don't see any dem winning Ohio.

 

Looking again the O'Rourke map is odd. O'Rourke losing Minnesota, Michigan, and Pennsylvania is way off those states are trending general blue. 

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Too much credit given to Trump.  Any competent likable Democrat (not saying all of them are) could beat Trump with 300+ EV.

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56 minutes ago, Jayavarman said:

Too much credit given to Trump.  Any competent likable Democrat (not saying all of them are) could beat Trump with 300+ EV.

Agreed. I think this fight with a lot of people on this forum think I think Sanders would defeat Trump. A lot of these people in Michigan, Wisconsin in Pennsylvania (maybe even in Ohio and Iowa) wood definitely have an easier time voting for Sanders over Clinton as a nominee. I agree this certainly gives way too much credit for Trump. I think it also gives way too much credit to Biden.

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13 hours ago, vcczar said:

O'Rourke vs. Biden 282-256 (O'Rourke wins pop vote)

Interesting matchup.

Also, I guarantee Trump isn't going to win NV or VA no matter what. He could win MN only if the Democrat is extremely off-base.

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3 hours ago, Dr. Insano said:

Agreed. I think this fight with a lot of people on this forum think I think Sanders would defeat Trump. A lot of these people in Michigan, Wisconsin in Pennsylvania (maybe even in Ohio and Iowa) wood definitely have an easier time voting for Sanders over Clinton as a nominee. I agree this certainly gives way too much credit for Trump. I think it also gives way too much credit to Biden.

I think in all of these swing states reading into mid term results as “swinging back blue” is dangerous  

Lets take Michigan as an example.  In 2018 Dems took back the Governor, AG, and Secretary of State spots.  This on its face would encourage a change is coming. However if you dig a little deeper you see that 3 heavily democratic supported ballot proposals, including anti-gerrymandering, and leagalize marijuana etc. These drove Dem voters to the polls. Michigan has no such ballot proposal plans for 2020.  The Republican candidate for Governor who lost ended up still winning nearly every county in Michigan.  

I just want to continue to caution my Dem friends who think the advantage is to the Dems right now.  I believe that’s a major miscalculation, that will lead to a lot of blaming North Korea, China, or Switzerland or whoever on Nov 4, 2020. 

Dems need a grass root plan in these swing states to drive people to the polls.  Especially after most people’s number 1 and number 2 choices get pushed aside for a candidate you were lukewarm to during the primaries, compared to “what could’ve been”

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On ‎4‎/‎11‎/‎2019 at 6:04 PM, vcczar said:

Biden vs. Trump 353-185 (Biden wins pop vote): https://www.270towin.com/maps/N8600

Sanders vs. Trump 260-278 (Sanders wins pop vote): https://www.270towin.com/maps/dQ79v

Warren vs. Trump 250-288 (Trump wins pop vote): https://www.270towin.com/maps/dQ79v

Harris vs. Trump 259-279 (Harris wins pop vote): https://www.270towin.com/maps/K8neG

O'Rourke vs. Biden 282-256 (O'Rourke wins pop vote): https://www.270towin.com/maps/DbQ19

Buttigieg vs. Trump 272-266 (Buttigieg wins pop vote): https://www.270towin.com/maps/xL0bX

Booker vs. Trump 306-232 (Booker wins pop vote): https://www.270towin.com/maps/g4V9E

Yang vs. Trump 231-307 (Trump wins pop vote): https://www.270towin.com/maps/Pmwl3

Castro vs. Trump 281-257 (Castro wins the pop vote): https://www.270towin.com/maps/r49bX

Hickenlooper vs. Trump 262-276 (Hickenlooper wins the pop vote: https://www.270towin.com/maps/1ek03

 

Well, frankly, I'm already sick of the U.S. 2020 Presidential Election, I must confess, despite it being over a year-and-a-half away, and I've lost all faith and strong interest in current U.S. politics, as I believe the American political zeitgeist and culture has jumped the shark at this time. I have MUCH more interest in making and contributing to scenarios and in-depth discussion about historical elections, elections in other countries, and maybe a revival of my hypothetical future series. I'm sorry, but this is what I've been worn down to.

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On 4/14/2019 at 6:18 PM, Patine said:

Well, frankly, I'm already sick of the U.S. 2020 Presidential Election, I must confess, despite it being over a year-and-a-half away, and I've lost all faith and strong interest in current U.S. politics, as I believe the American political zeitgeist and culture has jumped the shark at this time. I have MUCH more interest in making and contributing to scenarios and in-depth discussion about historical elections, elections in other countries, and maybe a revival of my hypothetical future series. I'm sorry, but this is what I've been worn down to.

Lol

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1 hour ago, ThePotatoWalrus said:

Lol

You've just become a neurotic ball of delirious laughter with nothing rational, intelligent, or serious to contribute lately. I suggest seeing a psychiatrist - if you can afford it in the broken U.S. health care system.

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