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Harris/Ernst 2020

2020 Senate Poll

2020 Senate Poll  

18 members have voted

  1. 1. Which Senate Seats should Republicans target (More Likely to flip) Try to choose only 5

    • Alabama (Jones)
    • Deleware (Coons)
    • Illinois (Durbin)
      0
    • Massachusetts (Markey)
      0
    • Michigan (Peters)
    • Minnesota (Smith)
    • New Hampshire (Shaheen)
    • New Jersey (Booker)
    • New Mexico (Udall)
    • Oregon (Merkley)
    • Rhode Island (Reed)
      0
    • Virginia (Warner)
  2. 2. Which Senate Seats should Democrats target (More Likely to flip) Try to choose only 5

    • Alaska (Sullivan)
      0
    • Arizona (McSally)
    • Arkansas (Cotton)
      0
    • Colorado (Gardner)
    • Georgia (Perdue)
    • Iowa (Ernst)
    • Kansas (Roberts)
    • Kentucky (McConnell)
    • Louisiana (Cassidy)
      0
    • Maine (Collins)
    • Mississippi (Hyde-Smith)
    • Montana (Daines)
      0
    • Nebraska (Sasse)
    • North Carolina (Tillis)
    • Oklahoma (Inhofe)
      0
    • South Carolina (Graham)
      0
    • South Dakota (Rounds)
      0
    • Tennessee (Alexander)
      0
    • Texas (Cornyn)
    • West Virginia (Moore Capito)
  3. 3. What is the most likely outcome (As of today 21/1/19)

    • 58R-42D (R+5)
      0
    • 57R-43D (R+4)
      0
    • 56R-44D (R+3)
      0
    • 55R-45D (R+2)
    • 54R-46D (R+1)
    • 53R-47D (EVEN)
    • 52R-48D (D+1)
    • 51R-49D (D+2)
    • 50R-50D (D+3) (REP WINS PRES)
    • 50D-50R (D+3) (DEM WINS PRES)
    • 51D-49R (D+4)
    • 52D-48R (D+5)
      0
    • 53D-47R (D+6)
      0
    • 54D-46R (D+7)
      0
    • 55D-45R (D+8)
      0


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*Disclaimer* Left out Idaho and Wyoming of the Second question since I can only have 20 choices and they're considered really safe.

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For Republicans, I see only 5 states that they have a chance of flipping. For Democrats, I see 9 with an outside chance of 11. However, Democrats will probably flip far less than 9. 

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Republicans:

Alabama should be in their favor.  Anyone not Roy Moore would probably win.

New Hampshire seems to always be close.  Plus, Trump should be competitive there.

Michigan: If John James runs, Republicans will have a good shot at making this a competitive race (especially if Trump can preform well here again).

Virginia: It'll be tougher as Virginia has shifted in recent years more towards the Dems.  Freitas could be more competitive, although it will still be a tough race.

Minnesota: Trump needs to keep it close here to have a chance.

Illinois: Durbin is very unpopular and could be a wild card (although it would take a lot to knock him off)

Gain Alabama; potential to pick up 2 others (probably NH and MI)

Dems:

Gardner is by far the most vulnerable Republican.

Collins could be vulnerable, but she seems to have support built up around her.  There's a chance she could get knocked off but probably not.

NC could be competitive although it leans R (same with GA)

Arizona might be the Dems 2nd best opportunity to gain a seat.  McSally is coming off of a loss (but, she might avoid a nasty primary this time).  Probably slightly in her favor but that could easily change.

Iowa: Ernst seems well positioned.  R's held the governorship and this election should be more favorable.

Texas: Cornyn isn't as hated as Cruz is (who won in a favorable Dem year).  This shouldn't be very close.

KY could be a wild card as McConnell is very unpopular, however Trump should help him.  Plus, he always wins b/c of what his position brings to the table.

Gain Colorado; good chance at Arizona; potential to pick up North Carolina; would need help for IA and GA

 

Prediction: AL and CO switch (EVEN)

Dems flipping AZ and gaining 1 seat would be 2nd most likely in my mind.

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6 hours ago, jvikings1 said:

Republicans:

Alabama should be in their favor.  Anyone not Roy Moore would probably win.

New Hampshire seems to always be close.  Plus, Trump should be competitive there.

Michigan: If John James runs, Republicans will have a good shot at making this a competitive race (especially if Trump can preform well here again).

Virginia: It'll be tougher as Virginia has shifted in recent years more towards the Dems.  Freitas could be more competitive, although it will still be a tough race.

Minnesota: Trump needs to keep it close here to have a chance.

Illinois: Durbin is very unpopular and could be a wild card (although it would take a lot to knock him off)

Gain Alabama; potential to pick up 2 others (probably NH and MI)

Dems:

Gardner is by far the most vulnerable Republican.

Collins could be vulnerable, but she seems to have support built up around her.  There's a chance she could get knocked off but probably not.

NC could be competitive although it leans R (same with GA)

Arizona might be the Dems 2nd best opportunity to gain a seat.  McSally is coming off of a loss (but, she might avoid a nasty primary this time).  Probably slightly in her favor but that could easily change.

Iowa: Ernst seems well positioned.  R's held the governorship and this election should be more favorable.

Texas: Cornyn isn't as hated as Cruz is (who won in a favorable Dem year).  This shouldn't be very close.

KY could be a wild card as McConnell is very unpopular, however Trump should help him.  Plus, he always wins b/c of what his position brings to the table.

Gain Colorado; good chance at Arizona; potential to pick up North Carolina; would need help for IA and GA

 

Prediction: AL and CO switch (EVEN)

Dems flipping AZ and gaining 1 seat would be 2nd most likely in my mind.

Good analysis. 

9 hours ago, vcczar said:

For Republicans, I see only 5 states that they have a chance of flipping. For Democrats, I see 9 with an outside chance of 11. However, Democrats will probably flip far less than 9. 

Same here.

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My Analysis of the current state of the races:

Republicans:

AL: This should be an easy pickup for the Republicans, might be close but should be easy.

MI: If Trump does well in Michigan which is in the realm of possibility then I see Sen. Peters going down.

MN: Same as Michigan, though I see this one being harder than the rest on this list given the blue hue of the State.

NH: Shaheen held on in 2014 which was a super red year so she could hold on though it will definitely be close just as the last 2 elections (2016, 2014)

VA: Given the 2014 result where the Republican outperformed the polls by roughly 5-9 point, I can see this election also being close given they don't nominate such a problem candidate such as they did in 2018.

 

Democrats:

AK: Proven to sometimes be the wildcard (Governors 2014, Governors 2018, Senate 2008) I put this race on the list but it is right now a "safe" seat for the Republicans.

AZ: Agree with @jvikings1 If she is saved from another hard primary she might be able to win, but she might not be able to shake the "loser" label she will definitely be given when election season ramps up.

CO: I can easily see Sen. Gardner become the Dean Heller of 2020. (Constantly behind in polls and end up losing pretty easily).

GA: If the election (for President) is close here I could see Sen. Perdue have trouble especially if Stacey ends up running. 

IA: Sen. Ernst is a first time Senator in a swing state, given it was won pretty easily in 2016 by president Trump, but if it is closer this election, or worse flips to Democrats I don't see her holding onto this seat.

KS: Given the results of the Governors race in 2018 and the fact that Kris Kobach is seriously considering running for this seat I can see this being a real potential for Democrats.

KY: Given his historic unpopularity this could be a surprise, but I wouldn't count on it.

LA: If Jon Bel Edwards runs I could see this being a possible pickup, but only if Edwards runs.

ME: This is the Democrats second best seat for a pickup. But she does remain popular even in her state despite her party id.

MT: If Steve Bullock runs I could see this as a tossup, but just like LA only if he runs.

NC: The recent polling out of NC gives a small look into what we may be facing, and given who's running for the Dems we could see them carry NC and maybe pull a Senate seat as well.

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