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vcczar

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Here’s an update of the GOP state demographics with MAGA replacing Tea Party:

 

Alabama: MAGA, Christian, Establishment, Libertarian, Moderate

Alaska: Libertarian, MAGA, Establishment, Moderate, Christian

Arizona: MAGA, Establishment, Libertarian, Moderate, Christian

Arkansas: Christian, MAGA, Establishment, Libertarian, Moderate

California:  Moderate, Libertarian, Establishment, MAGA, Christian

Colorado:   Libertarian, MAGA, Moderate, Establishment, Christian

 Connecticut:   Establishment,  Moderate, MAGA, Libertarian, Christian

Delaware: Libertarian, Moderate, MAGA, Establishment, Christian

 Florida: MAGA, Establishment, Christian, Moderate, Libertarian

Georgia: Christian, MAGA, Libertarian, Establishment, Moderate

District of Columbia: Establishment, Moderate, Christian, MAGA, Libertarian

Hawaii: Moderate, Establishment, Libertarian, Christian, MAGA

Idaho: Libertarian, MAGA, Christian, Establishment, Moderate

 Illinois: Establishment, MAGA, Libertarian, Christian, Moderate

Indiana: MAGA, Libertarian, Christian, Establishment, Moderate

Iowa: Christian, MAGA, Libertarian, Establishment, Moderate

Kansas: MAGA, Libertarian, Christian, Establishment, Moderate

Kentucky: MAGA, Libertarian, Christian, Establishment, Moderate

Louisiana: Christian, MAGA, Establishment, Libertarian, Moderate

Maine: Moderate, MAGA, Establishment, Libertarian, Christian

Maryland: Moderate, Establishment, Libertarian, MAGA, Christian

Massachusetts: Moderate, Establishment,  Libertarian, MAGA, Christian

Michigan: Establishment, MAGA, Christian, Libertarian, Moderate

Minnesota: Establishment, MAGA, Moderate, Libertarian, Christian

Mississippi: MAGA, Christian, Establishment, Libertarian, Moderate

 Missouri: Christian, MAGA, Libertarian, Establishment, Moderate

 Montana: Libertarian, MAGA, Establishment, Christian, Moderate

Nebraska: Christian, MAGA, Establishment, Libertarian, Moderate

Nevada: Libertarian, MAGA, Establishment, Moderate, Christian

New Hampshire: Libertarian, Moderate, MAGA, Establishment, Christian

New Jersey: Establishment, Moderate, MAGA, Libertarian, Christian

New Mexico: Libertarian, MAGA, Moderate, Establishment, Tea Party, Christian

New York: Establishment, Moderate, MAGA, Libertarian, Christian

North Carolina: Establishment, Christian, MAGA, Moderate, Libertarian

North Dakota: Libertarian, MAGA, Establishment, Christian, Moderate

Ohio: Establishment, MAGA, Moderate, Christian, Libertarian

Oklahoma: MAGA, Establishment, Christian, Libertarian, Moderate

Oregon: Libertarian, MAGA, Moderate, Establishment, Christian

Pennsylvania: Establishment, MAGA, Moderate, Libertarian, Christian

Rhode Island: Moderate, Establishment, Libertarian, MAGA, Christian

South Carolina: Establishment, MAGA, Christian, Libertarian, Moderate

South Dakota: Libertarian, Establishment, MAGA, Christian, Moderate

 Tennessee: MAGA, Christian, Establishment, Libertarian, Moderate

Texas: Christian, MAGA, Establishment, Libertarian, Moderate

Utah: Establishment, MAGA, Christian, Libertarian, Moderate

Vermont: Moderate, Libertarian, Establishment, MAGA, Christian

Virginia: Establishment, MAGA, Libertarian, Christian, Moderate

Washington: Libertarian, MAGA, Establishment, Moderate, Christian

 West Virginia: MAGA, Libertarian, Establishment, Christian, Moderate

Wisconsin: Libertarian, MAGA, Establishment, Moderate, Christian

Wyoming: MAGA, Libertarian, Establishment, Christian, Moderate

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And since I updated the GOP states replacing Tea Party with MAGA, here are the GOP candidates with MAGA replacing Tea Party

 

Moderate, Establishment, Christian Conservative, Libertarian, MAGA

 Trump: 2/1/3/1/5    total 12 pts

Kasich: 4/3/1/2/1   total 11 pts

Flake: 2/2/3/3/1    total 11 pts

Sasse: 2/1/3/3/1   total 10 pts

Hogan: 5/3/2/2/1  total 13 pts

Romney: 4/5/3/2/1  total 15 pts

Baker: 5/3/1/3/1   total 13 pts

Pence: 1/3/5/2/4  total 15 pts 

Cruz: 1/2/5/3/3 total 14 pts

Graham: 3/3/2/1/2 total 11 pts

Rubio: 3/5/3/2/2   total  15 pts

Collins: 5/3/1/2/1  total 12 pts

Murkowski: 4/3/1/2/1 total 11 pts

 Paul: 2/1/2/5/3 total 13 pts

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1 hour ago, vcczar said:

Good point. I’ll probably change it to that then. 

I agree, there is now a MAGA demo graphic as Tea Party was Libertarians+Christians

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Moderate, Establishment, Christian Conservative, Libertarian, MAGA

 Trump: 2/1/3/2/5    total 13 pts

Kasich: 4/3/1/1/1   total 10 pts

Flake: 3/2/2/2/1    total 10 pts

Sasse: 2/1/3/3/1   total 10 pts

Hogan: 5/3/2/2/1  total 13 pts

Romney: 4/5/3/2/1  total 15 pts

Baker: 5/3/1/2/1   total 12 pts

Pence: 1/3/5/2/4  total 15 pts 

Cruz: 1/2/5/3/3 total 14 pts

Graham: 3/3/2/1/2 total 11 pts

Rubio: 3/5/3/2/2   total  15 pts

Collins: 5/3/1/1/1  total 11 pts

Murkowski: 4/3/1/1/1 total 10 pts

 Paul: 2/1/3/5/3 total 14 pts

 

What I find very interesting is how Rand Paul is positioning himself.  I'm slightly bias, but it seems like he's giving himself a shot at running in 2024 with his positioning.  He has the lowest score for voting with Trump of any Republican (excluding Jon Kyle and Josh Hawley) according to 538, so he is sticking with his principles when it comes to voting (appeasing his base (libertarian/tea party/conservatives).  But, he aligns with Trump on several key events happening recently which would appeal to the Trump voter base.  This combined with his appeal to younger voters could make him an interesting option once 2024 comes around (of course who knows what he'd be doing for the 2 years after he leaves the Senate after 2022).

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@jvikings1 Do you think he'll leave the Senate in 2022?

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16 minutes ago, Reagan04 said:

@jvikings1 Do you think he'll leave the Senate in 2022?

He has supported term limits for a while now (12 years for both houses).  He's not the type to break with his principles on something like that.  He'll finish his 2nd term and then do something else.  I'd love for him to run for Governor of KY in 2023, but I doubt he'd do that even if he doesn't run for President in 2024.

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I could probably have a virtual board game up for this primary thing in a week. We have the candidates, the demographics, I've got the 2016 delegate #s and dates that will be used for now (except for CA, which has been moved). I've figured out a way to deal with primary momentum. I have a rough idea for debates and the pre-primaries that determine a frontrunner. I also have an idea for the Conventions. I probably won't worry about the general election until I get the primary part down.

The game will try to be scientific, but it will lean towards fun (meaning a simplistic version of reality). The 5 demographic factions will be unequal. The first listed Demographic is worth 3x the last two demographic. The 2nd and 3rd demographic is worth 2x the last two. However, securing 3 of the 5 demographics is all that is needed to win the state primary. Winning IA, NH, SC, NV, and a few other select states will allow you 1 pt to use on any demographic in the next election date. Losing your own state is pretty much death, as is a disastrous debate performance. This will result in a temporary loss of points in all areas by 1. I'm not sure how to work in scandals yet. 

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3 hours ago, vcczar said:

Here’s an update of the GOP state demographics with MAGA replacing Tea Party:

 

Alabama: MAGA, Christian, Establishment, Libertarian, Moderate

Alaska: Libertarian, MAGA, Establishment, Moderate, Christian

Arizona: MAGA, Establishment, Libertarian, Moderate, Christian

Arkansas: Christian, MAGA, Establishment, Libertarian, Moderate

California:  Moderate, Libertarian, Establishment, MAGA, Christian

Colorado:   Libertarian, MAGA, Moderate, Establishment, Christian

 Connecticut:   Establishment,  Moderate, MAGA, Libertarian, Christian

Delaware: Libertarian, Moderate, MAGA, Establishment, Christian

 Florida: MAGA, Establishment, Christian, Moderate, Libertarian

Georgia: Christian, MAGA, Libertarian, Establishment, Moderate

District of Columbia: Establishment, Moderate, Christian, MAGA, Libertarian

Hawaii: Moderate, Establishment, Libertarian, Christian, MAGA

Idaho: Libertarian, MAGA, Christian, Establishment, Moderate

 Illinois: Establishment, MAGA, Libertarian, Christian, Moderate

Indiana: MAGA, Libertarian, Christian, Establishment, Moderate

Iowa: Christian, MAGA, Libertarian, Establishment, Moderate

Kansas: MAGA, Libertarian, Christian, Establishment, Moderate

Kentucky: MAGA, Libertarian, Christian, Establishment, Moderate

Louisiana: Christian, MAGA, Establishment, Libertarian, Moderate

Maine: Moderate, MAGA, Establishment, Libertarian, Christian

Maryland: Moderate, Establishment, Libertarian, MAGA, Christian

Massachusetts: Moderate, Establishment,  Libertarian, MAGA, Christian

Michigan: Establishment, MAGA, Christian, Libertarian, Moderate

Minnesota: Establishment, MAGA, Moderate, Libertarian, Christian

Mississippi: MAGA, Christian, Establishment, Libertarian, Moderate

 Missouri: Christian, MAGA, Libertarian, Establishment, Moderate

 Montana: Libertarian, MAGA, Establishment, Christian, Moderate

Nebraska: Christian, MAGA, Establishment, Libertarian, Moderate

Nevada: Libertarian, MAGA, Establishment, Moderate, Christian

New Hampshire: Libertarian, Moderate, MAGA, Establishment, Christian

New Jersey: Establishment, Moderate, MAGA, Libertarian, Christian

New Mexico: Libertarian, MAGA, Moderate, Establishment, Tea Party, Christian

New York: Establishment, Moderate, MAGA, Libertarian, Christian

North Carolina: Establishment, Christian, MAGA, Moderate, Libertarian

North Dakota: Libertarian, MAGA, Establishment, Christian, Moderate

Ohio: Establishment, MAGA, Moderate, Christian, Libertarian

Oklahoma: MAGA, Establishment, Christian, Libertarian, Moderate

Oregon: Libertarian, MAGA, Moderate, Establishment, Christian

Pennsylvania: Establishment, MAGA, Moderate, Libertarian, Christian

Rhode Island: Moderate, Establishment, Libertarian, MAGA, Christian

South Carolina: Establishment, MAGA, Christian, Libertarian, Moderate

South Dakota: Libertarian, Establishment, MAGA, Christian, Moderate

 Tennessee: MAGA, Christian, Establishment, Libertarian, Moderate

Texas: Christian, MAGA, Establishment, Libertarian, Moderate

Utah: Establishment, MAGA, Christian, Libertarian, Moderate

Vermont: Moderate, Libertarian, Establishment, MAGA, Christian

Virginia: Establishment, MAGA, Libertarian, Christian, Moderate

Washington: Libertarian, MAGA, Establishment, Moderate, Christian

 West Virginia: MAGA, Libertarian, Establishment, Christian, Moderate

Wisconsin: Libertarian, MAGA, Establishment, Moderate, Christian

Wyoming: MAGA, Libertarian, Establishment, Christian, Moderate

You know, as you may have guessed by my long and antagonistic arguments with @Reagan04 on certain theological matters in the past, I somewhat resent the monstrous engine of tyrannical social engineering, oppression, and hypocrisy using the Christian faith's name in vane, but being anathema to it in almost all meaningful ways, by Republicans (and other socio-political groups in the U.S. and around the world) being acknowledged as outright BEING Christian, like seems to be labeled above.

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I made a Google Doc for this game. It has a rough outline of the rules. I may be able to start an online play through of it as early as this weekend. Each person that plays will get one Democrat and one Republican.  Some of the rules I'll have to create as we are playing. If we get enough volunteers, then I won't actually play as a candidate. 

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3 hours ago, vcczar said:

I made a Google Doc for this game. It has a rough outline of the rules. I may be able to start an online play through of it as early as this weekend. Each person that plays will get one Democrat and one Republican.  Some of the rules I'll have to create as we are playing. If we get enough volunteers, then I won't actually play as a candidate. 

I'll volunteer, but i'm kinda busy so if you run out of spots you can let someone else take my spot.

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23 hours ago, vcczar said:

Here’s an update of the GOP state demographics with MAGA replacing Tea Party:

 

Is there anything clearly different about MAGA than the Tea Party, beyond a name change? I'm curious if you believe MAGA puts more weight on x-issue than the tea party. 

Also your ratings of my state:

South Carolina: Blacks, Loyalists, Millennials, Left, Hispanic-Asians

(Yeah, that is as close to accurate as possible).

 Establishment, MAGA, Christian, Libertarian, Moderate

(This is, close as accurate as possible.)

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The 538 categories for Republicans in 2016 (including the famous overlapping Venn diagram which had Trump virtually out of the whole thing) showed they were out of touch with trends on the right.

Silver says in retrospect he felt Trump had strength with both Tea Party and Moderate wings. I think this understates his strength with Christian Conservatives. Even though he wasn't one himself, and Christian Conservatives weren't under the delusion he was, many Christian Conservatives saw in Trump someone who would, by and large, fight for them. This was further solidified by Trump choosing Pence as VP.

Trump's big issues were 1. Immigration (build the wall), 2. Get out of unnecessary foreign wars (anti-neo-con) while simultaneously effectively removing radical strains of Islam, 3. Drain the swamp (anti-establishment, anti-corruption), 4. Negotiate better trade deals to bring back the manufacturing base and improve the economy, 5. Change taxes and regulations to make a more pro-business environment, 6. appoint an originalist Justice to the SC.

Using the original 5 categories, the points that resonated with each in 2016 were Moderate (5.), Establishment (5.), Christian Conservative (1., second part of 2., 3.-6.), Libertarian (first part of 2., 3., 5., 6.), Tea Party (all).

I second replacing Tea Party with MAGA. Also, it seems the Establishment has either become more comfortable with Trump (see McConnell's changing views) or has become more MAGA with election wins (Scott in Florida, Blackburn in Tennessee, and so on) or appointments, and the notion of what a moderate is now has become closer to Trump's positions, simply because he won and has begun implementing them without (so far) the sky falling - in fact, to a large extent, the opposite.

My ratings for Trump as of now would be (Moderate/Establishment/Christian Conservative/Libertarian/MAGA)

3/2/4/2/5 = 16

Romney, on the other hand

4/4/3/2/1 = 13

Romney has a bigger problem, however. He is widely seen as a loser (2012) and a backstabber (such as his recent Op-Ed.).

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1 hour ago, admin_270 said:

The 538 categories for Republicans in 2016 (including the famous overlapping Venn diagram which had Trump virtually out of the whole thing) showed they were out of touch with trends on the right.

Silver says in retrospect he felt Trump had strength with both Tea Party and Moderate wings. I think this understates his strength with Christian Conservatives. Even though he wasn't one himself, and Christian Conservatives weren't under the delusion he was, many Christian Conservatives saw in Trump someone who would, by and large, fight for them. This was further solidified by Trump choosing Pence as VP.

Trump's big issues were 1. Immigration (build the wall), 2. Get out of unnecessary foreign wars (anti-neo-con) while simultaneously effectively removing radical strains of Islam, 3. Drain the swamp (anti-establishment, anti-corruption), 4. Negotiate better trade deals to bring back the manufacturing base and improve the economy, 5. Change taxes and regulations to make a more pro-business environment, 6. appoint an originalist Justice to the SC.

Using the original 5 categories, the points that resonated with each in 2016 were Moderate (5.), Establishment (5.), Christian Conservative (1., second part of 2., 3.-6.), Libertarian (first part of 2., 3., 5., 6.), Tea Party (all).

I second replacing Tea Party with MAGA. Also, it seems the Establishment has either become more comfortable with Trump (see McConnell's changing views) or has become more MAGA with election wins (Scott in Florida, Blackburn in Tennessee, and so on) or appointments, and the notion of what a moderate is now has become closer to Trump's positions, simply because he won and has begun implementing them without (so far) the sky falling - in fact, to a large extent, the opposite.

My ratings for Trump as of now would be (Moderate/Establishment/Christian Conservative/Libertarian/MAGA)

3/2/4/2/5 = 16

Romney, on the other hand

4/4/3/2/1 = 13

Romney has a bigger problem, however. He is widely seen as a loser (2012) and a backstabber (such as his recent Op-Ed.).

Maybe there isn’t an establishment anymore and there is just an “old guard”. The Romney/Kasich/Flake/McCain wing that is sort of a coalition of old school Moderates and conservatives. 

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I would call the Romney-Kasich-Flake wing the NeverTrumper wing.

But look at what's happened to this wing, though. McCain has died, and with it, Lindsey Graham seems to have become a Trump defender.

The Weekly Standard (NeverTrumper standard bearer) has closed.

Flake didn't even try to run for re-election.

Kasich has joined CNN, epicentre of disdain for media among Republicans.

I'm not sure you can even call the NeverTrumpers a wing of the Republican party anymore - they're not the old guard so much as remnants of the old guard.

I think this could change if the economy does very badly, or if there's a major scandal on Trump (perhaps issuing from the SC, the SD of NY, or Congressional investigations), and it might then become a significant part of the Republican Party, perhaps even leading a significant charge on Trump in the primaries. IMHO.

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Also consider how Ronna McDaniel (Chairwoman of the RNC) reprimanded Romney for his recent Op.Ed. Also consider how Paul Ryan -> Kevin McCarthy, who seems more pro-Trump. If things keep going as they are, by 2020 I actually might raise Trump's Establishment rating 2 -> 3, as much as MAGAers might not like that. ;)

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9 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

Also consider how Ronna McDaniel (Chairwoman of the RNC) reprimanded Romney for his recent Op.Ed. Also consider how Paul Ryan -> Kevin McCarthy, who seems more pro-Trump. If things keep going as they are, by 2020 I actually might raise Trump's Establishment rating 2 -> 3, as much as MAGAers might not like that. ;)

I would just improve MAGA in each state and reduce establishment/old guard. 

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@admin_270 @jvikings1 @Reagan04 and anyone else. Okay, I changed Tea Party to MAGA and Establishment to Old Guard, since I think we are in the process of seeing a rebuilding of a new establishment that is not yet really there yet (depends on Trump's reelection, I think). Old Guard is potentially dying Romney, Collins, Murkowski, Flake, Kasich, McCain, and will include some MAGA-Old Guard hybrids (Graham, and potentially Rubio). Hogan and Baker are moderates that may represent the Old Guard's best chance at a successor. The Old Guard is separate from Moderates since Sasse, Flake, while Romney, Collins, and possibly Murkowski are. Kasich is kinda in between conservative and moderate as is Romney now that he's in Utah, actually. 

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