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vcczar

Fun Primary Game

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Something like this might be converted into a fun primary game. See links below:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-5-key-constituencies-of-the-2020-democratic-primary/

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-17-long-shot-presidential-contenders-could-build-a-winning-coalition/

Each state would have a different number of the demographic groups. Candidates might split a demographic, making it easier for someone not of that demographic to score a victory. For instance, Warren and Sanders splitting Massachusetts, allowing McAuliffe to win. 

Here's how FiveThirtyEight had the candidates

Name          Party Loyalists        The Left      Millennials    Black Voters    Hispanic/Asian     Total

Biden           5                                2                   3                     4                        2                               16 pts

Harris           4                               3                   4                      5                        4                               20 pts

O'Rourke      4                               2                    5                    2                         4                               17 pts

Sanders       1                               5                    4                    1                          1                              12 pts

Booker         4                                2                    4                     5                        3                              18 pts

Castro         3                                 3                     3                    3                        5                               17 pts

Warren         3                                 5                    4                   2                          2                               16 pts

Klobuchar    5                               2                       3                  2                          2                              14 pts

Gillibrand      3                               3                       3                 3                           3                              15 pts

Brown            4                              5                        3                 3                           2                                17 pts

Inslee             2                              3                        3                  2                          2                               12 pts

Bullock         3                                3                       3                     2                        2                              13 pts

Hcknlooper    4                               2                       4                   2                        3                               15 pts

Landrieu      3                                   2                    2                   4                         2                                13 pts

Bloomb'rg      3                                1                   3                    3                          3                               13 pts

Buttigieg       3                                3                    4                     2                          2                               14 pts

de Blasio      2                                 5                   3                      4                        4                                  18 pts

Garcetti         3                                 3                   3                     3                        4                                  16 pts

Gillum           2                                 5                    3                      5                       3                                  18 pts

Abrams         2                                 5                   4                      5                        3                                  19 pts

McAuliffe      4                                1                    2                      4                        3                                  14 pts

Cuomo         4                                  2                     2                    4                        4                                   16 pts

Schultz         3                                 2                       2                    2                        2                                  11 pts

Winfrey         3                                 3                       4                   5                         3                                  18 pts

Gabbard       1                                 4                       3                   3                         4                                  15 pts

Ojeda          3                                   4                        3                   2                        2                                   14 pts

Delaney      3                                   2                         2                 3                          2                                   12 pts

and I assume, if Clinton were included, she would get something like

Clinton        5                                   1                           1               3                          3                                   13 pts (so while Sanders scores higher overall, Clinton hits 3/5 groups to Sanders's 2/5)

For Republicans, the groups had been Moderate, Establishment, Christian Conservative, Libertarian, Tea Party. Assuming that these would still be the groups, how would you score from 1-5 the following Republicans?

Trump

Kasich

Flake

Sasse

Hogan

Romney

Baker

Pence

Cruz

Graham

Rubio

Collins

Murkowski

Paul

If anyone wants to make a card game/board game of this, all we would need would be the 5 demographic groups for both parties somehow partitioned as accurately as possible for every state. We'd also need numbers for the Republican candidates. 

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@vcczar I could totally do GOP numbers once I'm in front of my computers.

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5 hours ago, Reagan04 said:

@vcczar I could totally do GOP numbers once I'm in front of my computers.

Ok cool

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8 hours ago, vcczar said:

Moderate, Establishment, Christian Conservative, Libertarian, Tea Party.

Trump: 2/0/2/1/3

Kasich: 4/3/1/2/1

Flake: 2/2/3/3/4

Sasse: 2/1/3/4/4

Hogan: 5/3/2/2/1

Romney: 3/5/3/2/2

Baker: 5/3/1/3/2

Pence: 1/2/5/3/4

Cruz: 1/0/4/4/5

Graham: 3/4/3/0/2

Rubio: 3/4/3/3/4

Collins: 4/4/1/2/1

Murkowski: 4/3/1/1/1

Paul: 2/0/2/5/4

 

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1 hour ago, ThePotatoWalrus said:

Love Ted's new beard.

Beards are highly overrated. If, for some reason, I miss shaving for several days to several weeks, I find myself craving a good shave and clean cut face.

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1 hour ago, Reagan04 said:

 

Trump would probably be higher or else he wouldn’t have won in 2016 and would definitely be challenged in 2020. 

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10 hours ago, vcczar said:

Trump would probably be higher or else he wouldn’t have won in 2016 and would definitely be challenged in 2020. 

As I'm sure you read the articles, he really doesn't fit with any of them, I have this theory that Trump truly was an anomaly. That 538 is right, and that on any other 3 alternate election days, Clinton would have won, him winning the Primaries was a string of lucky accidents. I really don't think that if you ran the 2016 GOP Primaries and subsequently the general you'd come up with a President Trump all that often. He was a bad candidate that won, doesn't make him a good candidate, particularly not in these parameters of interest groups that really have no interest in the guy.

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11 hours ago, Reagan04 said:

 

I feel like Romney's Tea Party score should be 1, since the Tea Party is a populist movement, and Romney is anything but a populist. 

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2 minutes ago, Sunnymentoaddict said:

I feel like Romney's Tea Party score should be 1, since the Tea Party is a populist movement, and Romney is anything but a populist. 

That's a fair suggestion.

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24 minutes ago, Reagan04 said:

As I'm sure you read the articles, he really doesn't fit with any of them, I have this theory that Trump truly was an anomaly. That 538 is right, and that on any other 3 alternate election days, Clinton would have won, him winning the Primaries was a string of lucky accidents. I really don't think that if you ran the 2016 GOP Primaries and subsequently the general you'd come up with a President Trump all that often. He was a bad candidate that won, doesn't make him a good candidate, particularly not in these parameters of interest groups that really have no interest in the guy.

Yeah theres an alternate universe where Rubio, Christie, Kasich, and Jeb all drop out before the SC primary( and thus making the primary field much smaller, and harder for Trump to win). And would Trump win in a less crowded field? Maybe, but less likely as theres an easy route for the never-trump conservatives to rally around. 

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12 hours ago, Patine said:

Beards are highly overrated. If, for some reason, I miss shaving for several days to several weeks, I find myself craving a good shave and clean cut face.

I love beards. I can grow one, but it just takes me a long time to grow an un-degenerate looking one since it grows so unevenly. (My chin, upper lip, and sideburns grow faster than my cheeks)

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1 hour ago, Reagan04 said:

As I'm sure you read the articles, he really doesn't fit with any of them, I have this theory that Trump truly was an anomaly. That 538 is right, and that on any other 3 alternate election days, Clinton would have won, him winning the Primaries was a string of lucky accidents. I really don't think that if you ran the 2016 GOP Primaries and subsequently the general you'd come up with a President Trump all that often. He was a bad candidate that won, doesn't make him a good candidate, particularly not in these parameters of interest groups that really have no interest in the guy.

Trump was ahead of the polls almost consistently once he entered. As much as I dislike Trump he was somehow appealing to probably at least 3 of the 5 groups. I'll use FiveThirtyEights old chart to amend what you put down for everyone. This is what I get. I'm also getting rid of 0, since that's not a number that's being used. 

Moderate, Establishment, Christian Conservative, Libertarian, Tea Party

Trump: 2/1/3/1/5    total 12 pts

Kasich: 4/3/1/2/1   total 11 pts

Flake: 2/2/3/3/2     total 12 pts

Sasse: 2/1/3/3/3    total 12 pts

Hogan: 5/3/2/2/1  total 13 pts

Romney: 4/5/3/2/1  total 15 pts

Baker: 5/3/1/3/1   total 13 pts

Pence: 1/3/5/2/4  total 15 pts 

Cruz: 1/2/5/3/4    total 15 pts

Graham: 3/3/2/1/1  total 10 pts

Rubio: 3/5/3/2/3   total  16 pts

Collins: 5/3/1/2/1  total 12 pts

Murkowski: 4/3/1/2/1 total 11 pts

Paul: 2/1/2/5/4 total 14 pts

I think the establishment had kinda shifted from Graham. I got rid of the zeroes. I made sure there was more of a divide between Christian Conservatives and Tea Party, even though there is a lot of overlap. For instance, Cruz is going to score near total points on the Christian Conservative demographic, but not necessarily on the tea party. Trump was the Tea Party candidate. He also scores 3 on Christian Conservatives because there's a weird Conservative Christian attachment to him. Not as high as Cruz, but it's definitely pronounced. Conceivably he could be a 3 on moderate. I'd say his numbers are the most volatile because he'll just lie to reach a demographic. 

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59 minutes ago, ThePotatoWalrus said:

I love beards. I can grow one, but it just takes me a long time to grow an un-degenerate looking one since it grows so unevenly. (My chin, upper lip, and sideburns grow faster than my cheeks)

My beard color is the same color as my face, so I look out of focus for two months. 

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2 minutes ago, vcczar said:

Trump was ahead of the polls almost consistently once he entered. As much as I dislike Trump he was somehow appealing to probably at least 3 of the 5 groups. I'll use FiveThirtyEights old chart to amend what you put down for everyone. This is what I get. I'm also getting rid of 0, since that's not a number that's being used. 

Moderate, Establishment, Christian Conservative, Libertarian, Tea Party

Trump: 2/1/3/1/5    total 12 pts

Kasich: 4/3/1/2/1   total 11 pts

Flake: 2/2/3/3/2     total 12 pts

Sasse: 2/1/3/3/3    total 12 pts

Hogan: 5/3/2/2/1  total 13 pts

Romney: 4/5/3/2/1  total 15 pts

Baker: 5/3/1/3/1   total 13 pts

Pence: 1/3/5/2/4  total 15 pts 

Cruz: 1/2/5/3/4    total 15 pts

Graham: 3/3/2/1/1  total 10 pts

Rubio: 3/5/3/2/3   total  16 pts

Collins: 5/3/1/2/1  total 12 pts

Murkowski: 4/3/1/2/1 total 11 pts

Paul: 2/1/2/5/4 total 14 pts

I think the establishment had kinda shifted from Graham. I got rid of the zeroes. I made sure there was more of a divide between Christian Conservatives and Tea Party, even though there is a lot of overlap. For instance, Cruz is going to score near total points on the Christian Conservative demographic, but not necessarily on the tea party. Trump was the Tea Party candidate. He also scores 3 on Christian Conservatives because there's a weird Conservative Christian attachment to him. Not as high as Cruz, but it's definitely pronounced. Conceivably he could be a 3 on moderate. I'd say his numbers are the most volatile because he'll just lie to reach a demographic. 

I would say Cruz is closer ideologically to the Tea Party than to the Christian Conservatives. The Christian Conservatives are more Pence's deal. But very well.

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Trump: 1/2/3/1/5

Kasich: 3/4/1/2/1

Flake: 4/2/1/2/1

Sasse: 2/2/3/2/3

Hogan: 5/3/1/2/1

Romney: 4/5/1/2/1

Baker: 4/4/2/1/1

Pence: 1/2/5/2/3

Cruz: 1/2/4/2/5

Graham: 3/3/1/1/1

Rubio: 4/3/1/1/2

Collins: 4/5/2/1/1

Murkowski: 5/4/2/2/1

Paul: 2/3/2/5/1

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22 minutes ago, Harris/Ernst 2020 said:

Trump: 1/2/3/1/5

Kasich: 3/4/1/2/1

Flake: 4/2/1/2/1

Sasse: 2/2/3/2/3

Hogan: 5/3/1/2/1

Romney: 4/5/1/2/1

Baker: 4/4/2/1/1

Pence: 1/2/5/2/3

Cruz: 1/2/4/2/5

Graham: 3/3/1/1/1

Rubio: 4/3/1/1/2

Collins: 4/5/2/1/1

Murkowski: 5/4/2/2/1

Paul: 2/3/2/5/1

You underestimate Paul, Cruz and Rubio

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Interesting to see how those points break down.  I was originally gung-ho for Bernie again in 2020, but I'm souring on that idea more and more as time passes.  Interesting how he has a very low score on this chart, and the Move On poll had him placing only 5th, despite having high name recognition.

Right now I'm leaning towards Elizabeth Warren, although Kamala Harris is making my decision difficult, and both Cory Booker and Sherrod Brown could sway me if they enter the fray.  Interesting to see Harris scores a 20. 🙂

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Ok, here's another thing we can try to do, @Reagan04 and anyone else: Determine the order of prevalence for these factions in each state. Let's start with the Republicans.

Moderate, Establishment, Christian Conservative, Libertarian, Tea Party. I'm using several websites and maps to make these ratings. The only one that is really hard to estimate is establishment, followed by moderate. 

Here are the states:

Alabama: Christian, Tea Party, Establishment, Libertarian, Moderate

Alaska: Libertarian, Tea Party, Establishment, Moderate, Christian

Arizona: Tea Party, Establishment, Libertarian, Moderate, Christian

Arkansas: Christian, Tea Party, Establishment, Libertarian, Moderate

California:  Moderate, Libertarian, Tea Party, Establishment, Christian

Colorado:   Libertarian, Tea Party, Moderate, Establishment, Christian

Connecticut:   Establishment, Tea Party,  Moderate, Libertarian, Christian

Delaware: Tea Party, Libertarian, Moderate, Establishment, Christian

Florida: Tea Party, Establishment, Christian, Moderate, Libertarian

Georgia: Christian, Tea Party, Libertarian, Establishment, Moderate

District of Columbia: Establishment, Moderate, Christian, Tea Party, Libertarian

Hawaii: Moderate, Establishment, Libertarian, Christian, Tea Party

Idaho: Libertarian, Christian, Establishment, Tea Party, Moderate

Illinois: Tea Party, Establishment, Libertarian, Christian, Moderate

Indiana: Tea Party, Libertarian, Christian, Establishment, Moderate

Iowa: Tea Party, Christian, Libertarian, Establishment, Moderate

Kansas: Tea Party, Libertarian, Christian, Establishment, Moderate

Kentucky: Tea Party, Libertarian, Christian, Establishment, Moderate

Louisiana: Christian, Tea Party, Establishment, Libertarian, Moderate

Maine: Moderate, Tea Party, Establishment, Libertarian, Christian

Maryland: Moderate, Establishment, Tea Party, Libertarian, Christian

Massachusetts: Moderate, Establishment, Tea Party, Libertarian, Christian

Michigan: Tea Party, Establishment, Christian, Libertarian, Moderate

Minnesota: Tea Party, Establishment, Moderate, Libertarian, Christian

Mississippi: Christian, Establishment, Tea Party, Libertarian, Moderate

Missouri: Tea Party, Christian, Libertarian, Establishment, Moderate

Montana: Libertarian, Tea Party, Establishment, Christian, Moderate

Nebraska: Christian, Tea Party, Establishment, Libertarian, Moderate

Nevada: Libertarian, Tea Party, Establishment, Moderate, Christian

New Hampshire: Libertarian, Tea Party, Moderate, Establishment, Christian

New Jersey: Establishment, Moderate, Tea Party, Libertarian, Christian

New Mexico: Libertarian, Moderate, Establishment, Tea Party, Christian

New York: Establishment, Moderate, Tea Party, Libertarian, Christian

North Carolina: Establishment, Christian, Moderate, Libertarian, Tea Party

North Dakota: Libertarian, Tea Party, Establishment, Christian, Moderate

Ohio: Establishment, Tea Party, Moderate, Christian, Libertarian

Oklahoma: Establishment, Christian, Tea Party, Libertarian, Moderate

Oregon: Tea Party, Libertarian, Moderate, Establishment, Christian

Pennsylvania: Tea Party, Establishment, Moderate, Libertarian, Christian

Rhode Island: Moderate, Establishment, Tea Party, Libertarian, Christian

South Carolina: Establishment, Tea Party, Christian, Libertarian, Moderate

South Dakota: Libertarian, Establishment, Tea Party, Christian, Moderate

Tennessee: Tea Party, Christian, Establishment, Libertarian, Moderate

Texas: Tea Party, Christian, Establishment, Libertarian, Moderate

Utah: Establishment, Christian, Libertarian, Tea Party, Moderate

Vermont: Moderate, Libertarian, Establishment, Tea Party, Christian

Virginia: Establishment, Tea Party, Libertarian, Christian, Moderate

Washington: Libertarian, Tea Party, Establishment, Moderate, Christian

West Virginia: Libertarian, Tea Party, Establishment, Christian, Moderate

Wisconsin: Tea Party, Libertarian, Establishment, Moderate, Christian

Wyoming: Libertarian, Tea Party, Establishment, Christian, Moderate

 

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4 hours ago, ThePotatoWalrus said:

I love beards. I can grow one, but it just takes me a long time to grow an un-degenerate looking one since it grows so unevenly. (My chin, upper lip, and sideburns grow faster than my cheeks)

What is it with you and the word "degenerate." It's an outdated, backward term of older era where words like "savage," "negro," "Gypsy," "Red Indian," "Saracen," and "Oriental" also were found. It's not a word of the modern era. Even most modern social conservatives who don't sound utterly unhinged when they speak rarely publicly use it (at least, as a noun) anymore.

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Ok, since I've done the GOP state demographic ranking. Here's the Democrats:

Alabama: Loyalists, Blacks, Millennials, Left, Hispanic/Asian

Alaska: Left, Millennials, Loyalist, Hispanic/Asian, Blacks

Arizona: Hispanic-Asian, Loyalist, Millennials, Left, Blacks

Arkansas: Loyalists, Blacks, Millennials, Left, Hispanic-Asian

California:  Millennials, Loyalists, Left, Hispanic-Asian, Blacks

Colorado:   Millennials, Left, Loyalists, Hispanic-Asian, Blacks

Connecticut: Loyalists, Millennials, Left, Blacks, Hispanic-Asian

Delaware: Loyalist, Blacks, Millennials, Left, Hispanic-Asian

Florida: Loyalists, Millennials, Hispanic-Asian, Left, Blacks

Georgia: Blacks, Loyalists, Millennials, Left, Hispanic-Asians

District of Columbia: Blacks, Loyalists, Hispanic-Asians, Millennials, Left

Hawaii: Hispanic-Asian, Millennials, Left, Loyalists, Blacks

Idaho: Liberal, Millennials, Loyalists, Hispanic-Asians, Blacks

Illinois: Loyalists, Millennials, Left, Hispanic-Asian, Blacks

Indiana: Loyalists, Millennials, Left, Blacks, Hispanic-Asian

Iowa: Left, Loyalists, Millennials, Hispanic-Asian, Blacks

Kansas: Left, Millennials, Loyalists, Hispanic-Asian, Blacks

Kentucky: Loyalists, Millennials, Left, Blacks, Hispanic-Asian

Louisiana: Blacks, Loyalists, Millennials, Hispanic-Asian, Left

Maine: Left, Millennials, Loyalists, Hispanic-Asians, Blacks

Maryland: Loyalists, Blacks, Millennials, Left, Hispanic-Asians

Massachusetts: Millennials, Loyalists, Left, Blacks, Hispanic-Asians

Michigan: Millennials, Blacks, Loyalists, Left, Hispanic-Asian

Minnesota: Left, Millennials, Loyalists, Hispanic-Asian, Blacks

Mississippi: Blacks, Loyalists, Millennials, Left, Hispanic-Asian

Missouri: Loyalists, Millennials, Left, Blacks, Hispanic-Asian

Montana: Left, Loyalists, Millennials, Hispanic-Asian, Blacks

Nebraska: Left, Loyalists, Millennials, Hispanic-Asian, Blacks

Nevada: Loyalist, Hispanic-Asian, Millennials, Left, Blacks

New Hampshire: Left, Millennials, Loyalists, Hispanic-Asians, Blacks

New Jersey: Loyalists, Millennials, Hispanic-Asian, Left, Blacks

New Mexico: Hispanic-Asian, Loyalists, Millennials, Left, Blacks

New York: Millennials, Loyalists, Left, Hispanic-Asian, Blacks

North Carolina: Loyalists, Millennials, Blacks, Left, Hispanic-Asian

North Dakota: Left, Millennials, Loyalists, Hispanic-Asian, Blacks

Ohio: Loyalists, Millennials, Left, Blacks, Hispanic-Asian

Oklahoma: Left, Loyalists, Millennials, Hispanic-Asian, Blacks

Oregon: Left, Millennials, Loyalists, Hispanic-Asian, Blacks

Pennsylvania: Loyalists, Millennials, Left, Blacks, Hispanic-Asians

Rhode Island: Left, Loyalists, Millennials, Blacks, Hispanic-Asians

South Carolina: Blacks, Loyalists, Millennials, Left, Hispanic-Asians

South Dakota: Loyalists, Left, Millennials, Hispanic-Asians, Blacks

Tennessee: Loyalist, Millennials, Blacks, Left, Hispanic-Asians

Texas: Loyalist, Hispanic-Asian, Millennials, Left, Blacks

Utah: Millennials, Left, Hispanic-Asians, Loyalists, Blacks

Vermont: Left, Millennials, Loyalists, Hispanic-Asians, Blacks

Virginia: Loyalist, Millennials, Blacks, Hispanic-Asians, Left

Washington: Left, Millennials, Hispanic-Asians, Loyalists, Blacks

West Virginia: Left, Loyalists, Millennials, Blacks, Hispanic-Asians

Wisconsin: Left, Loyalists, Millennials, Blacks, Hispanic-Asians

Wyoming: Left, Loyalists, Millennials, Hispanic-Asians, Blacks

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2 hours ago, Patine said:

What is it with you and the word "degenerate." It's an outdated, backward term of older era where words like "savage," "negro," "Gypsy," "Red Indian," "Saracen," and "Oriental" also were found. It's not a word of the modern era. Even most modern social conservatives who don't sound utterly unhinged when they speak rarely publicly use it (at least, as a noun) anymore.

Is oriental really an outdated term?

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2 hours ago, ThePotatoWalrus said:

Is oriental really an outdated term?

Indeed it is. You're obviously very out of touch.

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20 hours ago, vcczar said:

Moderate, Establishment, Christian Conservative, Libertarian, Tea Party

Trump: 2/1/4/2/4    total 13 pts

Kasich: 4/3/1/2/1   total 11 pts

Flake: 2/2/3/3/2     total 12 pts

Sasse: 2/1/3/3/3    total 12 pts

Hogan: 5/3/2/2/1  total 13 pts

Romney: 4/5/3/2/1  total 15 pts

Baker: 5/3/1/2/1   total 12 pts

Pence: 1/3/5/2/4  total 15 pts 

Cruz: 1/2/5/3/4    total 15 pts

Graham: 3/3/2/1/1  total 10 pts

Rubio: 3/5/3/2/2   total  15 pts

Collins: 5/3/1/2/1  total 12 pts

Murkowski: 4/3/1/1/1 total 10 pts

Paul: 2/1/3/5/4 total 15 pts

One thing about the Tea Party category is that it really isn't the tea party anymore.  What it is considered now is not what it was when it first arose.  Paul would be the top of that followed closely by Cruz.  Trump would be more middle of the road (due to his immigration policies but lack of care of the deficit).  MAGA might be a better category for it due to the fact that most original Tea Partiers fit in the Libertarian or Christian Conservative category now if they didn't go full MAGA.

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6 minutes ago, jvikings1 said:

One thing about the Tea Party category is that it really isn't the tea party anymore.  What it is considered now is not what it was when it first arose.  Paul would be the top of that followed closely by Cruz.  Trump would be more middle of the road (due to his immigration policies but lack of care of the deficit).  MAGA might be a better category for it due to the fact that most original Tea Partiers fit in the Libertarian or Christian Conservative category now if they didn't go full MAGA.

Good point. I’ll probably change it to that then. 

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