Jump to content
270soft Forum
vcczar

New 2020 Dem Primary Poll (Harvard/Harris)

Recommended Posts

A new Harris Poll is out. Here are the results:

1. Biden 25%

2. Sanders 15%

3. Hillary Clinton (!) 13%

4. O'Rourke 9%

5. Warren 4%

6. Booker 3%

7. Harris 2%

For GOP, Trump got 44% and Romney 6%. This shows a lot of Republicans would prefer someone other than Trump, but they aren't agreed on who that person should be. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

From the looks of this poll it shows that the real race (at this moment) is between Sanders and Biden. I do believe that those numbers will change albeit small when candidates start announcing. It's still to early to really declare anyone the favourite though. I heavily believe that Hillary will not seek another run. I believe that most of that 13% will go to Biden though as Hillary and Biden are considered "establishment".

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 12/4/2018 at 1:03 AM, Harris/Ernst 2020 said:

From the looks of this poll it shows that the real race (at this moment) is between Sanders and Biden. I do believe that those numbers will change albeit small when candidates start announcing. It's still to early to really declare anyone the favourite though. I heavily believe that Hillary will not seek another run. I believe that most of that 13% will go to Biden though as Hillary and Biden are considered "establishment".

Yeah I'm curious how much of the Biden support is for him,or because he is the "establishment"; and the same for Sanders in regards to the "progressive-left". 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 12/3/2018 at 7:08 PM, vcczar said:

A new Harris Poll is out. Here are the results:

1. Biden 25%

2. Sanders 15%

3. Hillary Clinton (!) 13%

4. O'Rourke 9%

5. Warren 4%

6. Booker 3%

7. Harris 2%

For GOP, Trump got 44% and Romney 6%. This shows a lot of Republicans would prefer someone other than Trump, but they aren't agreed on who that person should be. 

"This shows a lot of Republicans would prefer someone other than Trump, but they aren't agreed on who that person should be."

Right, but they would *have to* agree for that someone to mount a decent challenge to Trump.

So, the question is who are the 2nd preferences for a lot of those other candidates. However, 'Not sure' was 2nd in GOP rankings at 16%, and 'Not voting' was 3rd at 7%. This effectively makes the head-to-head comparisons out of 77%, and Trump gets 44% of those, or 57%. So, 57% of the sample prefer Trump over any other candidate listed. That still leaves 43%, which is a significant number. What of those?

Note that the poll sample for these numbers includes both Republicans and Independents. If you look at the Republican part of the sample, Trump's numbers are 60%, and the 'Not sure' and 'Not voting' are much lower at 9% and 1%. Effectively Trump's numbers for Republicans who have a choice and intend to vote is about 66%, which is 50% higher than the initial number (44%) makes it seem. Contrarily, Kasich's number below is significantly lower among Republicans (4%) than Independents (9%) in the sample. What this means for primaries I am not sure.

A lot of the potential candidates listed could reasonably be described as 'NeverTrumpers' or highly critical of Trump - Romney (6%), Kasich (6%), J. Bush (3%), Flake (2%), and Sasse (1%). If you add up their %s, you get 18%, which effectively is 18/77 = 23.3%. Even there, though, how many who support Romney or J. Bush in this sample would support Trump before Kasich? My guess is many, so you probably can't just add up these numbers to get an Anyone-But-Trump. Similarly for others in the list, such as Ryan (5%) and Cruz (5%). Cruz is now 'Beautiful Ted' and Trump played a significant part in making sure Cruz got re-elected. My guess is that Ryan is more a choice of conventional GOPers, and Trump would probably be 2nd choice for many of them.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 12/5/2018 at 4:45 PM, admin_270 said:

Thanks!

Another thing that’s interesting is that Trump and H. Clinton have almost exactly the same favorability and unfavorability. This would explain why the election was so close. What would this have meant if Biden (who has the lowest unfavorability of all those polled) had gone against Trump. Obama has the highest favorability at 58%, but obviously he can’t run. Sanders also has a significantly higher favorability and lower unfavorability than Trump or Clinton.

Does favorability in the game at all capture candidate favorability? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

×