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vcczar

Who Will Run for President in 2020?

Who Will Run in 2020? Which politician has over 50% chance of running for president in 2020?  

21 members have voted

  1. 1. Who Will Run in 2020? Which politician has over 50% chance of running for president in 2020?

    • Hillary Clinton
    • Beto O'Rourke
    • Joe Biden
    • Bernie Sanders
    • Elizabeth Warren
    • Kamala Harris
    • Cory Booker
    • Kirsten Gillibrand
    • Amy Klobuchar
    • Tim Kaine
    • John Hickenlooper
      0
    • Julian Castro
    • Tom Steyer
    • Oprah Winfrey
    • Michael Bloomberg
    • Michael Avenatti
    • Sherrod Brown
    • Eric Holder
    • John Kerry
    • None of these
      0


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This may seem strange, but I think only Harris and Booker are over 50%. I think a lot of these are like 45% change of going. I think a lot of the older people will decide against it. I think some will wait for Trump to appear more vulnerable. 

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I agree that most of these are just below or at 50% right now, not many above that. Based on his comments Avenatti seems like a sure thing to run, he won't last long though. All signs point to Booker running, and Castro has already said he very likely will run. My feeling is also that Biden is leaning on running. 

All the others, especially Bernie, Warren, Harris, and Brown, I feel depend on who else decides to run and if they believe they have the best message and the best to beat Trump. I'd put them all at 50% right now. 

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11 hours ago, vcczar said:

This may seem strange, but I think only Harris and Booker are over 50%. I think a lot of these are like 45% change of going. I think a lot of the older people will decide against it. I think some will wait for Trump to appear more vulnerable. 

No snark, but exactly how can he be more vulnerable? If there is a Democrat out right now that thinks he/she cannot defeat a man that cannot have a single day with an approval rating average over 50%(according to 538); I doubt they can defeat him in general. Plus just for reference, in the lead up to the 2008 general election, here's a list of major Democrats that declared before Valentine's Day: 
 

  • Senator Joe Biden
  • Senator Hillary Clinton
  • Senator Chris Dodd
  • Senator John Edwards
  • Congressman Dennis Kucinich 
  • Senator Barack Obama
  • Governor Bill Richardson
  • Governor Tom Vilsack 
  • Former Senator Mike Gravel

So roughly any person on the fence, will need to see just how vulnerable Trump will get in a little over two months.  

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21 minutes ago, Sunnymentoaddict said:

No snark, but exactly how can he be more vulnerable? If there is a Democrat out right now that thinks he/she cannot defeat a man that cannot have a single day with an approval rating average over 50%(according to 538); I doubt they can defeat him in general. Plus just for reference, in the lead up to the 2008 general election, here's a list of major Democrats that declared before Valentine's Day: 
 

  • Senator Joe Biden
  • Senator Hillary Clinton
  • Senator Chris Dodd
  • Senator John Edwards
  • Congressman Dennis Kucinich 
  • Senator Barack Obama
  • Governor Bill Richardson
  • Governor Tom Vilsack 
  • Former Senator Mike Gravel

So roughly any person on the fence, will need to see just how vulnerable Trump will get in a little over two months.  

This is also assuming that you can transpose the same political atmosphere of 2008 with 2020 or with candidates then and with Trump. Additionally, there was no incumbent running for reelection in 2008. Trump has already started campaigning for 2020. Also, his favorability/approval rating was even lower before he won the 2016 election! 

After the 2016 election, I'm not going to consider Trump vulnerable unless, 1) economy starts dipping, or 2) Mueller really finds something on Trump that even has FoxNews, Pence, and McConnell distancing themselves from Trump again. 

A better thing to look up is to see which Republicans declared before Valentine's Day in 2012 since that was an election against an incumbent. 

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Guaranteed: Gillibrand and Booker (still vow to down an entire bottle of Tobasco if neither or just one run. Will also do it if Biden declares his candidacy.)
Wild Card: Bet(a) O'Rourke

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5 hours ago, vcczar said:

This is also assuming that you can transpose the same political atmosphere of 2008 with 2020 or with candidates then and with Trump. Additionally, there was no incumbent running for reelection in 2008. Trump has already started campaigning for 2020. Also, his favorability/approval rating was even lower before he won the 2016 election! 

After the 2016 election, I'm not going to consider Trump vulnerable unless, 1) economy starts dipping, or 2) Mueller really finds something on Trump that even has FoxNews, Pence, and McConnell distancing themselves from Trump again. 

A better thing to look up is to see which Republicans declared before Valentine's Day in 2012 since that was an election against an incumbent. 

A fair enough point, and majority of the field declared by Halloween of 2011- almost exactly one year after their historic 2010 landslide. That said, I still find Trump's coalition way too small (mainly rural whites) that any Democrat on the fence regarding running against shouldn't.  But I will concede that if the economy were to take a significant dive- the tariffs begin to seriously slow down local economies. Or Mueller releases a report that provides a highly detailed account for Trump's corruption- granted even then I'm skeptical on if that will even move the needle towards Democrats. 

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