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SirLagsalott

My 2020 Scenario - Now Available For Download

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After a few months of working and tons of testing I'm going to release my 2020 scenario soon. I'm posting to look for more feedback and how some things I'm trying will be received.

Realistic Results - I spent a ton of time messing with issues, endorsers, and percentages trying to find the right mix that would cause results to be realistic as frequently as possible. Weird stuff still happens - such is the nature of AIs going ham when targeting states. But you're not going to see Trump winning Delaware or anything, an issue I found really annoying with other scenarios.

Endorsers Done Differently - One of the main things I focused on was changing endorsers. Spamming endorsements was always a major overpowered problem in scenarios. I retained state-level momentum & footsoldiers effects for statewide endorsers, but removed momentum from most national endorsers and replaced it with footsoldier bonuses. Surrogates are also far more useful than usual - you're not going to waste 10 CP on a governor that can only barnstorm 5 times. Though I sadly can't change the cost of endorsements, the surrogate points have been modified to follow their propensity for campaigning more closely - Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, and Sean Hannity are going to be seen a lot more than, say, John Barrasso of Wyoming. Endorsers also include high-profile but losing candidates such as Andrew Gillum and Beto O'Rourke, and they're going to be closely aligned with their faction of the party. I'm trying to avoid situations where Joe Manchin is going to go all-in for Bernie Sanders or Charlie Baker is going to give Trump a boost. Due to game mechanics those situations are still possible but it should be a bit harder to do. Additionally, every presidential candidate will be available as a regular endorser so that if you miss their endorsement when they're considering withdrawal you can still get it later and have them campaign for you.

Money! - Money was kind of awkward during testing because the AI likes to blow through money very quickly and go bankrupt after just a few weeks. With fundraising significantly buffed for major parties, ads are no problem when done reasonably. Known fundraisers like the Clintons, Kochs, Sheldon Adelson, and J.B. Pritzker (also IL Governor) provide valuable fundraising as surrogates.

Ads Redone - I tweaked ads a lot in pricing and effects. Attack ads are no longer absurdly powerful where you can spam them and get enough negative momentum for your opponent that they can be crushed on election day with little effort - attacks are nerfed significantly, but if you set your theme on a certain issue and make sure to attack in states where the candidate and state don't align on issues, attack ads are effective. Trump's not going to get destroyed for his Energy position in West Virginia.

Current Release

United States - 2020 SirLagsalott.zip

Weird Rushed Beta 2/11/2019

United States - 2020 SirLagsalott.zip

Version History:

12/1/2018: V1 released.

To-Do List:

  • More work on percentages in Republican primaries.
  • Flesh out Libertarian primaries. Change delegate counts to convention delegate counts.
  • Make all Green primaries occur on same day similar to Libertarians (simulating a convention) and flesh out percentages.
  • All of the above fleshing out for Better for America.
  • Change "2016" icon on the setup screen to one for 2020.
  • Flesh out issues and change descriptions.
  • More billionaire endorsers.

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7 minutes ago, SirLagsalott said:

Version 1 has been released. Looking forward to feedback & comments.

I'll check it out soon!

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@SirLagsalott I've downloaded your scenario. Here's some non-playthrough feedback. :

- The scenario icon says 2016

- You need more issues. See some of mine and use whichever you see necessary. 

- I'm still curious that you have Hogan, Kaine, and Dawson as ON. 

- Not sure why Romney has 4 integrity or McAuliffe has a 3. 

- Why is Booker's experience less than Harris's? 

- Delaney might need 3 charisma. He just isn't generating any interest.

- Ojeda might need to have lower leadership. 

- I'd raise O'Rourke's integrity. Part of the reason he had as much support as he did in Texas was because of his high integrity. His rock n' roll past, DUI, etc., seems to have been brushed off as the folly of youth, similar to how it was forgiven for George W. Bush. 

- You might want to consider giving Steyer higher stamina. Like most CEO's, he's probably working 14+ hours a day, every day. I'm sure, if he runs, he's going to more active than most of the politicians--flooding the advertising markets and such. 

- Sanders might need higher stamina. He is old like Trump, but also like Trump, he's someone that doesn't seem to get worn out by daily campaigns, as we saw in 2016. He was active daily even during the general. This isn't to say he should have Trump-level stamina, but his stamina should at least be average.

- I'm surprised you have Warren as an average debater. She isn't exciting to watch, but she's very clear, direct, and authentic on attack in a way that Hillary Clinton isn't. 

- I'd consider adding Cruz as a What-if candidate. Feel free to use any of the Republicans that I use as what-ifs as well. You have hypothetical parties, might as well add a lot of what-if candidates. Also, check out some of my what-if candidates for Democrats. 

- Kasich, Romney,  Huntsman, Gillibrand, Cuomo need more recent photos

- Use some of the endorsers that I have. I have about 3 or 4x as many endorsers as you do, and I think it makes the campaign more fun. 

- 3rd party pop vote seems to high for Oct 2019

- Curious that you have Republicans/Trump leading in the popular vote at the start considering he can't even reach 50% approval. 

- I have some major differences in the poll #s for the Democrats, but I'm basing mine off current polls rather than hypothetical future polls. 

- Would Ojeda even lead in WV if he was recently crushed running as a US Rep in his own state? 

Visually, it looks very good. I'll try running through an election when I have more time. I definitely saw some things in your scenario that I'll probably include in mine, mainly weakening the 3rd parties significantly. 

I think the primary differences in our scenarios are:

- slight adjustments to candidate abilities

- slight differences in voter support

- Different candidates as ON and OFF

- I have way more endorsers, issues, and candidates. 

- I'm assuming you have the money part of the game much more figured out. I'd like to know how you managed this. I can never figure that part out. 

Other than this, I don't see much of a difference between our scenarios. 

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3 hours ago, vcczar said:

@SirLagsalott I've downloaded your scenario. Here's some non-playthrough feedback. : 

- The scenario icon says 2016

- You need more issues. See some of mine and use whichever you see necessary. 

- I'm still curious that you have Hogan, Kaine, and Dawson as ON. 

- Not sure why Romney has 4 integrity or McAuliffe has a 3.  

- Why is Booker's experience less than Harris's? 

- Delaney might need 3 charisma. He just isn't generating any interest. 

- Ojeda might need to have lower leadership. 

- I'd raise O'Rourke's integrity. Part of the reason he had as much support as he did in Texas was because of his high integrity. His rock n' roll past, DUI, etc., seems to have been brushed off as the folly of youth, similar to how it was forgiven for George W. Bush.  

- You might want to consider giving Steyer higher stamina. Like most CEO's, he's probably working 14+ hours a day, every day. I'm sure, if he runs, he's going to more active than most of the politicians--flooding the advertising markets and such. 

- Sanders might need higher stamina. He is old like Trump, but also like Trump, he's someone that doesn't seem to get worn out by daily campaigns, as we saw in 2016. He was active daily even during the general. This isn't to say he should have Trump-level stamina, but his stamina should at least be average.

- I'm surprised you have Warren as an average debater. She isn't exciting to watch, but she's very clear, direct, and authentic on attack in a way that Hillary Clinton isn't. 

- I'd consider adding Cruz as a What-if candidate. Feel free to use any of the Republicans that I use as what-ifs as well. You have hypothetical parties, might as well add a lot of what-if candidates. Also, check out some of my what-if candidates for Democrats. 

- Kasich, Romney,  Huntsman, Gillibrand, Cuomo need more recent photos 

- Use some of the endorsers that I have. I have about 3 or 4x as many endorsers as you do, and I think it makes the campaign more fun. 

- 3rd party pop vote seems to high for Oct 2019 

- Curious that you have Republicans/Trump leading in the popular vote at the start considering he can't even reach 50% approval. 

- I have some major differences in the poll #s for the Democrats, but I'm basing mine off current polls rather than hypothetical future polls. 

- Would Ojeda even lead in WV if he was recently crushed running as a US Rep in his own state?  

Visually, it looks very good. I'll try running through an election when I have more time. I definitely saw some things in your scenario that I'll probably include in mine, mainly weakening the 3rd parties significantly. 

I think the primary differences in our scenarios are:

- slight adjustments to candidate abilities

- slight differences in voter support 

- Different candidates as ON and OFF 

- I have way more endorsers, issues, and candidates.  

- I'm assuming you have the money part of the game much more figured out. I'd like to know how you managed this. I can never figure that part out.  

Other than this, I don't see much of a difference between our scenarios. 

I actually avoided downloading your scenario until I got 1.0 of mine out to avoid copying anything you did. Honestly, I'm not entirely sure what's going on with general election percentages during the primaries - looks like a significantly larger amount of the electorate is undecided between parties for some reason. Starting in the general election shows a much more decided, partisan, and realistic populace. I'll make a more thorough response to these in a bit but I'll make a lot of the changes you recommended.

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2 hours ago, SirLagsalott said:

I actually avoided downloading your scenario until I got 1.0 of mine out to avoid copying anything you did. Honestly, I'm not entirely sure what's going on with general election percentages during the primaries - looks like a significantly larger amount of the electorate is undecided between parties for some reason. Starting in the general election shows a much more decided, partisan, and realistic populace. I'll make a more thorough response to these in a bit but I'll make a lot of the changes you recommended.

I don't mind if you copy anything. I just want me, you, or someone else to have a highly playable 2020 scenario. Some of my what-if's, like Jeb Bush and Joseph Kennedy III, so players can play as a dynasty. I have a lot of election scenarios with what-if Bushes, Kennedys, etc. 

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@vcczar Your characterization of Ojeda "being crushed" is incredibly off. He actually was one of the top House Democratic overperformers relative to their districts partisan lean. There is no doubt he'd steamroll the competition in a WV primary and he'd probably take names in Kentucky. the WVDemocratic Party is still a conservative institution and Ojeda would dominate there.

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1 hour ago, Reagan04 said:

@vcczar Your characterization of Ojeda "being crushed" is incredibly off. He actually was one of the top House Democratic overperformers relative to their districts partisan lean. There is no doubt he'd steamroll the competition in a WV primary and he'd probably take names in Kentucky. the WVDemocratic Party is still a conservative institution and Ojeda would dominate there.

He’d win the same West Virginia Democrats that handed the state to Bernie Sanders over Hillary Clinton?

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2 hours ago, Reagan04 said:

@vcczar Your characterization of Ojeda "being crushed" is incredibly off. He actually was one of the top House Democratic overperformers relative to their districts partisan lean. There is no doubt he'd steamroll the competition in a WV primary and he'd probably take names in Kentucky. the WVDemocratic Party is still a conservative institution and Ojeda would dominate there.

Not just that, but the area where Ojeda is from is pretty weird in that they hate the national Democratic Party. I don't want to say that he will lose- but I feel he might since the WV primary is late in the season-; but his region of WV is where Bernie did extremely well. And also this guy in 2012 during the Democratic Primary against Barack Obama. So if Ojeda can keep his head above water and survive Iowa, NH, Nevada, South Carolina, California and Super Tuesday...then sure he could win his home state. 

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2 hours ago, Sunnymentoaddict said:

Not just that, but the area where Ojeda is from is pretty weird in that they hate the national Democratic Party. I don't want to say that he will lose- but I feel he might since the WV primary is late in the season-; but his region of WV is where Bernie did extremely well. And also this guy in 2012 during the Democratic Primary against Barack Obama. So if Ojeda can keep his head above water and survive Iowa, NH, Nevada, South Carolina, California and Super Tuesday...then sure he could win his home state. 

Yeah, he will probably be out of money before the WV primary. 

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6 hours ago, vcczar said:

He’d win the same West Virginia Democrats that handed the state to Bernie Sanders over Hillary Clinton?

I don't think you understand why Bernie won. Bernie won for the same reason Trump did. And there was a sizable cohort of Bernie-Trump WV voters, its because they wanted an outsider populist and hated Hillary and the establishment. It had nothing to do with his values. And if we take the 2018 WVDEM primary as an indicator, the WVDemocratic Party is as conservative as ever. He'd clean up in a primary in WV.

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11 hours ago, vcczar said:

Yeah, he will probably be out of money before the WV primary. 

I agree. It's one thing to raise money for a Congressional race; but another to raise money while competing against Beto, Harris, and other big Democratic figures.

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Thank god Avenatti declined a 2020 bid. Now I can finally turn him off. Deval Patrick, who I wasn't including because I never expected him to run, also declined.

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@admin_270 Linked the scenario on the main post under the "Weird Rushed Beta" category. I was playing in primaries with Trump, Hogan, and Blankenship on for Republicans, default candidates on for Democrats plus Avenatti (human) on the default starting date. No other candidates. Happened again on another test. Also, when you select a VP that's incompatible with your positions, they will take back their endorsement every day for the entire campaign.

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Ok, this 'takes back endorsement' bug has been fixed in the latest internal.

The reason Kristol was endorsing at the start is that he's set to endorse by Jan. 2nd, 2020. Default start is Jan. 1st, 2020.

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