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vcczar

Rank the 2020 Candidates in primary strength

Rank the 2020 Candidates in Primary Strength  

9 members have voted

  1. 1. Republican Candidates Primary Strengths (includes what if candidates). Check those with which you disagree. [Comment below if you disagree].

    • Donald Trump - Top tier (top tier is frontrunner or tied for frontrunner)
      0
    • (possible candidate) John Kasich - 4th tier (Only really has a chance of winning their own state unless the frontrunner completely collapses.)
    • (possible candidate) Jeff Flake - 4th tier
      0
    • (what if) Ted Cruz - 3rd tier (Will win their own state, but won't expand beyond that unless the frontrunner collapses)
    • (what if) Lindsey Graham - 4th tier
      0
    • (what if) Marco Rubio - 4th tier
    • (what if) Jeb Bush - 4th tier
      0
    • (what if) Ben Sasse - 4th tier
    • (what if) Bob Corker - 4th tier
      0
    • (what if) Susan Collins - 4th tier
      0
    • (what if) Lisa Murkowski - 3rd tier
    • (what if) Mike Pence - 2nd tier (Is likely to be competitive in several states and emerge as frontrunner if frontrunner collapses)
      0
    • (what if) Larry Hogan - 3rd tier
    • (what if) Tom Cotton - 4th tier
      0
    • (what if) Mitt Romney - 2nd tier
    • I think these candidate tiers are accurate.
  2. 2. Democratic Candidates Primary Strengths (includes what if candidates). Check those with which you disagree. [Comment below if you disagree].

    • Joe Biden -- 1st tier (top tier is frontrunner or tied for frontrunner)
    • Bernie Sanders - 2nd tier (Is likely to be competitive in several states and emerge as frontrunner if frontrunner collapses)
    • Elizabeth Warren - 2nd tier
      0
    • Cory Booker - 2nd tier
      0
    • Kamala Harris - 2nd tier
    • Beto O'Rourke - 3rd tier
    • Eric Swalwell - 4th tier
      0
    • John Delaney - 4th tier
      0
    • Sherrod Brown - 3rd tier
    • Julian Castro - 4th tier
      0
    • Michael Avenatti - 4th tier
      0
    • Jeff Merkley - 3rd tier
    • Kirsten Gillibrand - 3rd tier
    • Hillary Clinton - 2nd tier
    • John Hickenlooper - 3rd tier
    • Amy Klobuchar - 3rd tier
      0
    • I think these candidate tiers are accurate.
  3. 3. Check all that you think will be true

    • Democrats will field 20+ candidates in the primaries that were or are governors, senators, us reps, cabinet officers, or VPs.
    • The Democratic nominee will be someone that is not 1st or 2nd tier on this list.
    • The Democratic nominee will have less baggage than Hillary Clinton and will likely turn fewer voters away.
    • The Democratic nominee will energize Democrat-leaning better than Clinton did.
    • The Democratic nominee will not ignore Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania as much as Clinton did.
    • Since 3, 4, and 5 are likely to be true, the Democrats can expect to win back at least three of WI, MI, OH, PA.
    • Donald Trump will be less divisive to Republican voters in the 2020 election; therefore, they will be more united behind him.
    • If 7 is true, that means Trump can expect more support and less conservatives opting for 3rd parties.
    • Trump's baggage will have less impact on the 2020 election for turning out Republican voters.
    • Trump will be able to energize Republican-leaning base equal or better to how he could in 2016.
    • Since 7, 8, 9, and 10 are likely to be true, Republicans can expect to hold on to WI, MI, OH, and PA, even if Democrats field a better candidate than Clinton.
    • A sizable percentage of Trump supporters in 2016 will switch back to Democrats in 2020 for one reason or another.
    • The Democratic controlled US House is likely to energize Republican voters in the 2020 polls more than it will encourage Democratic voters to vote in 2020.
    • Trump will face a significant primary challenge (such as Kasich, Flake, Sasse, etc.)
    • Trump will be impeached before election day 2020 (convicted or acquitted)
      0
    • If Trump is impeached, then he will not be reelected.
    • If the economy starts going south by election day, then Trump will not be reelected.
    • Democrats will defeat Trump in 2020 even if the economy is strong and even if he is not impeached.
    • Trump will win reelection if the economy is strong, regardless if he faces impeachment.
    • Democrats are at least 51% more likely to defeat Trump in his reelection bid.


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7 minutes ago, vcczar said:

new poll

LOL. Mitt Romney and Hillary Clinton...

I'm thinking of a song by Aayliah from the '90's:

 

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I think:

Kasich belongs in 2nd tier

Bernie belongs in 3rd tier

Kamala belongs in 1st tier

Beto belongs in 2nd tier

Sherrod Brown belongs in 2nd tier

Merkley belongs in 4th tier (zero name recognition)

Gillibrand belongs in 2nd tier

Clinton belongs in 3rd tier

 

 

 

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Bernie should be tied for first with Biden and I think Clinton should be lower than 2nd Tier (Just not exactly sure where).

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35 minutes ago, lizphairphreak said:

I don't think the Democrats have a top tier yet

Biden is routinely leading the polls. 26% in the last poll. Sanders at 19%. O'Rourke came in 3rd with 8%. There are a few 5% (Warren and Booker) and the rest are 2% and 1%. Then there are the 0%. I'd call Biden and Sanders top tier in this poll. O'Rourke, Warren, Booker as 2nd tier. The 1-2% as 3rd tier and the 0% people as 4th tier. 

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1 hour ago, lizphairphreak said:

I don't think the Democrats have a top tier yet

Considering the man sitting in the White House wasn't considered "top tier" at the start of the Republican primaries in 2015 - some, at the time, even questioned how serious his bid really was - anything can happen...

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19 hours ago, Patine said:

Considering the man sitting in the White House wasn't considered "top tier" at the start of the Republican primaries in 2015 - some, at the time, even questioned how serious his bid really was - anything can happen...

This is more what I mean, @vcczar but I accidentally hit submit too soon and then got totally sidetracked-- apologies.

Before 2016, Hillary was consistently FAR ahead (I believe at least in the 40s) in 2014 and early 2015, compared to Biden in the mid-20s (with a close challenger in Sanders.) The argument could also then be made that Biden has under-performed in past presidential primaries, and that Sanders may have more baggage due to Clinton supporters' annoyance with him (as compared to when he entered in 2015 a relative unknown.) I don't think these polls count for much before people actually start to announce, particularly considering some precedent.

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59 minutes ago, lizphairphreak said:

This is more what I mean, @vcczar but I accidentally hit submit too soon and then got totally sidetracked-- apologies.

Before 2016, Hillary was consistently FAR ahead (I believe at least in the 40s) in 2014 and early 2015, compared to Biden in the mid-20s (with a close challenger in Sanders.) The argument could also then be made that Biden has under-performed in past presidential primaries, and that Sanders may have more baggage due to Clinton supporters' annoyance with him (as compared to when he entered in 2015 a relative unknown.) I don't think these polls count for much before people actually start to announce, particularly considering some precedent.

I'm talking about tiers as in initial candidate power. For the sake of the game, I'm asking how strong each candidate should be in initial support. 

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6 hours ago, admin_270 said:

I have him at about 8%, and behind Biden and Bernie. I should possibly increase him, however. He;s clearly the favorite of those not wanting an 70+ year old. He beats Harris and Booker, which isn't a good sign for them. 

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