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2020 Election Scenario

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I'm updating the 2020 Election Scenario. Added Inslee, Swalwell, O'Rourke for Democrats. Adding Hogan and Kristol for Republicans, even though I doubt they run. 

I won't release this until Favorability and the 10 point rating system is released by @admin_270

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12 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

10 point for PI should be released soon - maybe within a few days.

Favorability will take longer.

ok, I'll do a release with the 10 pts system and another after favorability. 

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@admin_270 and others. 

I am currently updating the 2020 scenario. Just to make the game more interesting, I’ve set several Republican Trump critics to ON as either undecided or not running. Thus, Trump may run unopposed or he could face challenges from one or more of the following: Kasich, Flake, Sasse, Romney, Corker, Collins, Murkowski, Hogan, Kristol. 

Since Trump is in perpetual campaign mode, I’ve increased his campaign ratings. 

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My guess is that if the economy keeps humming, all of these are unlikely to run. Especially Murkowski and Collins. Flake couldn't even win the Republican nomination in AZ (a moderate Republican state) without Trump's endorsement, so I have significant doubts he'll run. Kasich is ornery enough that he just might do it.

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1 minute ago, admin_270 said:

My guess is that if the economy keeps humming, all of these are unlikely to run. Especially Murkowski and Collins. Flake couldn't even win the Republican nomination in AZ (a moderate Republican state) without Trump's endorsement, so I have significant doubts he'll run. Kasich is ornery enough that he just might do it.

I agree with the economy as being a factor. However, I think Kasich and Flake aren't really interested in winning. I think it's more out of principal. I think both of them think that if no one runs against Trump then it will look terrible historically for the Republican Party. I think they view Trump as poorly as most Democrats, if not more. In many ways, it is comparable to Sanders's 2016 campaign. He initially ran without considering victory. He just wanted to get his message out there. Sanders wasn't supposed to get much more than a percentage or two. I think Kasich, Flake, or both will run, even if the economy is still good. The primary season is long enough that the economy could change at any moment. Many economists are predicting a drop in the economy at some level or another. I deleted all my events from my scenario, so I don't have the economy as a factor one way or the other. 

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2 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

Romney is 71. Will be 73 by 2020. Would be 77 for 2024. He might actually think he could wait out Trump and then run in 2023-4.

This isn't likely to happen, but it could in President Infinity. What if all the undecided/not running people on my list ran. The idea would be to collectively gather enough delegates to stop Trump or pressure him to move away from policies that are anti-thetical to traditional 21st century Republicans, such as protectionism or opening relations with traditional enemies. Although, I doubt Trump caves to anyone, since he operates as a party of self rather than a party of a variety of Republicans. 

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One of the reasons for Trump's success in 2016 was that many of the other Republican nominees didn't want to attack him. You saw how Cruz, Carson, and Rubio (among others) held off on attacking him. At one key point in the primaries, *no one* was running ads against Trump. In part, I think this is because they saw what happened to candidates who did attack him (such as J. Bush).

This was part of Trump's strategy, and you see it in the Presidency. The idea is that you have a reputation, and if someone attacks you, you attack them back much harder, even if it means you take a hit in the short-term (being called uncivil, or what have you). This deters others from attacking you. It worked in the 2016 Republican primaries to a significant degree.

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30 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

One of the reasons for Trump's success in 2016 was that many of the other Republican nominees didn't want to attack him. You saw how Cruz, Carson, and Rubio (among others) held off on attacking him. At one key point in the primaries, *no one* was running ads against Trump. In part, I think this is because they saw what happened to candidates who did attack him (such as J. Bush).

This was part of Trump's strategy, and you see it in the Presidency. The idea is that you have a reputation, and if someone attacks you, you attack them back much harder, even if it means you take a hit in the short-term (being called uncivil, or what have you). This deters others from attacking you. It worked in the 2016 Republican primaries to a significant degree.

Yeah but we are talking about Republicans that have no qualms attacking Trump, even after he’s become president and tamed Graham and Cruz. Kasich, Flake, etc.  more courageous than worried about their reputations. 

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If Kasich, Flake, or whomever, go hard after a sitting President who is popular within the Republican party, I think the most likely outcome is they will shred their futures and reputation within the Republican party. The party has become significantly more pro-Trump over the last two years.

I think a significant challenger is more likely if Trump becomes unpopular within the party (for example, if there is a significant economic downturn).

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1 hour ago, admin_270 said:

My guess is that if the economy keeps humming, all of these are unlikely to run. Especially Murkowski and Collins. Flake couldn't even win the Republican nomination in AZ (a moderate Republican state) without Trump's endorsement, so I have significant doubts he'll run. Kasich is ornery enough that he just might do it.

I don't imagine the "humming" will last if the backlash of the unnecessary and unprovoked trade wars of non-sensical ego hit American consumers in the next two years, which is VERY plausible...

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14 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

The party has become significantly more pro-Trump over the last two years.

I think this trend may SERIOUSLY injure and handicap the Republican Party going forward after Trump...

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38 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

If Kasich, Flake, or whomever, go hard after a sitting President who is popular within the Republican party, I think the most likely outcome is they will shred their futures and reputation within the Republican party. The party has become significantly more pro-Trump over the last two years.

I think a significant challenger is more likely if Trump becomes unpopular within the party (for example, if there is a significant economic downturn).

As I’m saying, I don’t think they care about their reputation in regards to political power or support. I think they care about their principal, believing that their reputation will be lifted in the eyes of Republicans of the future. I doubt either one seeks higher office other than token primary challenges to Trump. If you listen to their rhetoric, this becomes clear. 

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Again, I think Kasich is ornery (principled) enough to do this. I'm saying my best guess is that the major outcome of that will be him shredding his future and reputation within the Republican party, not changing the party - unless Trump's popularity within the party significantly decreases between now and early 2020.

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@admin_270 just wondering, but can scenarios made after the 10 point patch work on older versions?

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On 11/13/2018 at 2:41 PM, admin_270 said:

Again, I think Kasich is ornery (principled) enough to do this. I'm saying my best guess is that the major outcome of that will be him shredding his future and reputation within the Republican party, not changing the party - unless Trump's popularity within the party significantly decreases between now and early 2020.

I agree. I think he does it without any political benefit for him. I think history will reward him, however. I could see Kasich becoming an Independent and running to drain Trump votes too in the general. 

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@Ido

Yes, campaigns made with the 0-10 attribute system will work on game engines that use the 1-5. They do this by encoding both 0-10 and (automatically generated) 1-5 values into the campaign XML files.

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ahh, interesting to know, thanks

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