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lizphairphreak

Taylor Swift 2020?

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Added Taylor Swift as a potential third party candidate into VCCzar's 2020 scenario, despite her age. Used this map of her popularity to make some (very!) loose percentages by state.

Image result for taylor swift popularity map

Starting a playthrough now, starting at January 1, 2020. Swift has good or very good relationships with most candidates aside from Trump, who she has a "bad" relationship with. The candidates I have on are Trump and Kasich for the GOP, Jill Stein for the Greens, and Biden, Sanders, Harris, Booker, Gillibrand, Warren, and Gabbard for the Dems.

Swift is beginning at a 13.6% nationally (the game did some math with the semi-nonsense I gave) and is Not Seeking. Will update if this turns out fun.

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The month of January went by and Swift remained Not Seeking, though she took some high profile interviews and was received well on the issue of North Korea, strangely enough.

January ended and Trump and Sanders won the Iowa primaries in their respective parties.

Swift has been heard saying she doesn't care for Bernie and will be more likely to jump into the race if he becomes the favorite for the Democratic nomination...

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Swift also remained on the sidelines for the month of February, but took on a more active role in taking interviews and spinning news stories in favor of Democratic candidates.

Trump has so far swept every state. For the Dems, Biden has won Arkansas, Colorado, Minnesota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Teas, and Virginia. Warren has taken Alabama, Nevada, Georgia, and Massachusetts. Bernie has won Vermont and California.

According to a close source, Swift is planning to form an exploratory committee by the end of March, witnessing the messiness of the primary in the Democratic Party and a continuing Trump domination...

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By mid-March, Biden has swept multiple states. Harris, Gillibrand, and Gabbard have all withdrawn. Swift tells a reporter, "I don't think that Bernie or Biden can win...on their own."

Following this ominous statement, Swift has launched an exploratory committee.

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March has ended, and it is more certain than ever that Biden will be the Democratic nominee.

Swift has launched an exploratory committee and has begun issue and debate training. She gave her first policy speech, on Defense Spending, in Texas.

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April has come and gone, with Swift giving occasional policy speeches and training for debates and issues. However, she's also been hit with accusations of negative campaigning and assaults on her issue focuses by the Trump family.

However, with months to go and solid campaign attributes, Swift and her team are still hoping to come from behind...

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Swift officially declared her candidacy in mid-May, and began an aggressive approach to rallies around her central issues of LGBTQ rights, abortion, and gun control. In the process, she was also able to negotiate with Elizabeth Warren to drop out and become a surrogate. Swift also launched 4 high powered tv ads in all states to begin her long-shot bid with a massive media boost.

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June was, overall, a productive month for the Swift campaign. She has been able to build leads in Utah, Oregon, and Alaska, but is coming in striking distance in states including Minnesota, Arizona, and Pennsylvania. Swift's team is also building operations around the country and is allegedly planning to use the RNC and DNC conventions to continue building these operations, raise more funds for their already astronomical sum, and begin vetting options for Vice President. Now into July...

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July ended up being a rollercoaster month for the Swift campaign. As the RNC was beginning, Swift was seeing leads in Utah, Idaho, Wyoming, Montana, Alaska, Tennessee, and Pennsylvania. However, Trump nabbed a former Swift endorser and tapped Murkowski as his VP, and Swift saw her leads in most of these states evaporate. 
The DNC ended up being more exciting, as Biden finally won the nomination on the 6th ballot. Biden then tapped Cuomo as his VP (ugh). As a result of the nominees being officially determined, Swift tapped Michelle Obama as her VP.

We are now in the general election, with three full months to campaign.

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August was pretty uneventful for the Swift campaign, as they've been trying to pick up lost ground. Bizarrely, Trump is being hit with impeachment and massive scandals and yet the Swift camp hasn't been able to use this in a meaningful way, while the Biden campaign has been able to continue gaining ground on the electoral map.

Swift is currently leading comfortably in Utah, and by smaller margins in Tennessee and Alaska.

A Swift campaign advisor was heard saying they plan to "carpet bomb" the airwaves with ads during the month of October. Swift is also rumored to be intensely preparing for the coming debates, though her current standing at 18% is not comfortable enough to guarantee she will be invited...

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September brought very few changes, as Swift seems to have plateaued in the polls and maintained leads in Utah, Tennessee, and Alaska but haven't gained any other states. The Swift campaign has been, privately, feeling downtrodden but hopeful for October.

Swift's VP triumphed in the first debate, and is prepping for the next. And now on to October and to see if the Swift ad blitz will work...

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October was a good month for the Swift campaign. 2 presidential debate triumphs and a series of extraordinarily well received rallies leaves Swift at her highest polls to date. But she still seems to have stalled in statewide polls, and has quietly begun to prepare her campaign to prepare for concession. Allegedly, Swift commented, "Joe owes me the biggest thanks of his life" regarding her ability to siphon off votes to the Trump campaign.

But not all is lost. The Swift campaign is preparing for an aggressive last week push, with 7 television ads poised to take the airwaves in targeted states. Maybe we're about to see an even bigger political upset than 2016?

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Swift in her concession speech: "While I am disappointed that we didn't have a winning result tonight, and that I won't be your president in January of 2021, I am honored to have received the votes of over 40 million of my fellow Americans, and to have won 59 electoral votes from a diverse slate of states-- including my home state of Tennessee."

Overall, this was an interesting way to play this game and this scenario. I designed Swift as a centrist, but one who was far left on "social issues," far right on economic issues, and then Center on foreign policy. It made for interesting gameplay, as she could fare really well in Conservative strongholds like Montana, Liberal/Left strongholds like Oregon, and swing/purple states like Pennsylvania. Trying to translate Swift from performer to candidate was interesting, because I noticed her complete lack of experience had her policy speeches go poorly, but her massive charisma meant her rallies almost always went extremely well. I also gave her campaign super strong attributes (look at her fan club and advertising-- pretty remarkable) and started her low on issues and debating but really really drilled that in, since most celebrity candidates are going to get gotcha questions, so it tends to be best that they are as prepared as possible.

Anyway, it wouldn't let me paste the map but I attached here. Pretty interesting game.

swift 1st election map.bmp

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13 hours ago, lizphairphreak said:

Added Taylor Swift as a potential third party candidate into VCCzar's 2020 scenario, despite her age. Used this map of her popularity to make some (very!) loose percentages by state.

Image result for taylor swift popularity map

Starting a playthrough now, starting at January 1, 2020. Swift has good or very good relationships with most candidates aside from Trump, who she has a "bad" relationship with. The candidates I have on are Trump and Kasich for the GOP, Jill Stein for the Greens, and Biden, Sanders, Harris, Booker, Gillibrand, Warren, and Gabbard for the Dems.

Swift is beginning at a 13.6% nationally (the game did some math with the semi-nonsense I gave) and is Not Seeking. Will update if this turns out fun.

Interesting thing. Where did you find the map? Did they rank other people as well?

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20 hours ago, lizphairphreak said:

tapped Cuomo as his VP

sigh, how sad, mainly the fact he's slowly destroying NY, imagine what he would do to all of america, he's the biggest democrat that I have an issue with.

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On 11/4/2018 at 9:49 AM, Conservative Elector 2 said:

Interesting thing. Where did you find the map? Did they rank other people as well?

Yes! It was a NYTimes thing, I think they did 50? https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/08/07/upshot/music-fandom-maps.html

I remembered seeing Taylor's floating around after she made her big political Instagram post, and it surprised me how unpopular she is in the South when she started in country.

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15 hours ago, NYConservative said:

sigh, how sad, mainly the fact he's slowly destroying NY, imagine what he would do to all of america, he's the biggest democrat that I have an issue with.

For real. I was playing through the assumption that Swift would act as a spoiler to benefit the Dems (based on her endorsement of Dem candidates IRL) but when Biden tapped Cuomo in the game, I was like okay time to go negative against Biden haha

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On 11/4/2018 at 2:00 AM, lizphairphreak said:

Swift in her concession speech: "While I am disappointed that we didn't have a winning result tonight, and that I won't be your president in January of 2021, I am honored to have received the votes of over 40 million of my fellow Americans, and to have won 59 electoral votes from a diverse slate of states-- including my home state of Tennessee."

Overall, this was an interesting way to play this game and this scenario. I designed Swift as a centrist, but one who was far left on "social issues," far right on economic issues, and then Center on foreign policy. It made for interesting gameplay, as she could fare really well in Conservative strongholds like Montana, Liberal/Left strongholds like Oregon, and swing/purple states like Pennsylvania. Trying to translate Swift from performer to candidate was interesting, because I noticed her complete lack of experience had her policy speeches go poorly, but her massive charisma meant her rallies almost always went extremely well. I also gave her campaign super strong attributes (look at her fan club and advertising-- pretty remarkable) and started her low on issues and debating but really really drilled that in, since most celebrity candidates are going to get gotcha questions, so it tends to be best that they are as prepared as possible.

Anyway, it wouldn't let me paste the map but I attached here. Pretty interesting game.

swift 1st election map.bmp

Oh yeah, a deeper analysis showed that Swift was within striking distance in Maine, Arizona, Michigan, Minnesota, Wyoming, Colorado, and Idaho. She didn't campaign at all in Maine, besides some ads, but lost by only like .3%, which is interesting. As compared to Arizona and Minnesota where she campaigned HEAVILY. Looking at the numbers showed that she played a spoiler in favor of Biden in Michigan, Maine, Minnesota(!), and even Florida & Georgia even though her campaigning there was not as intensive as others.

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funny but interesting idea

i made a scenario where Kanye West was running and I was gonna make a large play-by-play starting from Chicago Mayor to presidency but uh, I lost motivation making it.

might pick it up again

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3 hours ago, wolves said:

funny but interesting idea

i made a scenario where Kanye West was running and I was gonna make a large play-by-play starting from Chicago Mayor to presidency but uh, I lost motivation making it.

might pick it up again

You could throw him into a 2020 scenario (like I did here) though I'm not sure there's any data to go by (and the map I used for Swift's percentage was also shaky at best anyway)

I doubt he'd challenge Trump at this point tho..

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This has also reinvigorated my interest in this and now I want to play this scenario again, but start it earlier and probably have Swift solidly in the race by the end of January to see if she can pick up any more support..

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4 minutes ago, lizphairphreak said:

You could throw him into a 2020 scenario (like I did here) though I'm not sure there's any data to go by (and the map I used for Swift's percentage was also shaky at best anyway)

I doubt he'd challenge Trump at this point tho..

Yep. I threw the scenario up and just wrote the first post of it, it's on the first page.

I would have him run in 2024 cause that's when he said he wanted to run. 

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On 11/5/2018 at 11:50 AM, lizphairphreak said:

For real. I was playing through the assumption that Swift would act as a spoiler to benefit the Dems (based on her endorsement of Dem candidates IRL) but when Biden tapped Cuomo in the game, I was like okay time to go negative against Biden haha

I definitely would. I know some possible PhD no fun person like @Patinewouldn't approve of this, but I sometimes do wish-fulfillers where Cuomo loses about anything hes running in (THIS DOES NOT MEAN A DEMOCRAT DOES NOT WIN. IT MEANS CUOMO DOES NOT WIN.)

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On 11/5/2018 at 11:49 AM, lizphairphreak said:

Yes! It was a NYTimes thing, I think they did 50? https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/08/07/upshot/music-fandom-maps.html

I remembered seeing Taylor's floating around after she made her big political Instagram post, and it surprised me how unpopular she is in the South when she started in country.

Suprisingly, the South really isn't huge on Country- in fact, no place is except for the small towns etc, like where I am.

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