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TheMiddlePolitical

Your Senate 2018 predictions (Relates to CI :) )

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7 hours ago, SirLagsalott said:

That looks like the literal best-case scenario for the Republicans, why do you think they'll win just about every single close election in the country?

I have already written to much about it with my papers,but at the end of the day I just think it’s the Trump effect,and I litterally don’t trust major election polls really anymore. It’s my gut instinct I guess,I could also be tottaly wrong but I think worst case for republicans is they have 49 total seats. So yeah my “error” margib is well,insane. Lol. 

 

I go to quite a liberal university (in which I started a Young Democrats branch,as I did with my county),so this isn’t partisan in anyway.

After we averaged our predictions as a class (of 70 total students) the final was R 55-D 45 So I guess will see.

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On 10/26/2018 at 1:12 PM, Hestia11 said:

image.png.8071fd3563c7c2dfeee1567e587787f2.png

Closest Race (gets larger margins as it goes out):

McCaskill 50.2%-Hawley 49.8%

Rosen 50.6%-Heller 49.4%

Nelson 50.9%-Scott 49.1%

Sinema 51.1%-McSally 48.9%

Cramer 51.5%-Heitkamp 48.5%

Donnelly 51.9-Braun 48.1%

Blackburn 52.2%-Bredesen 47.8%

Cruz 52.6%-O'Rourke 47.4%

Tester 53.3%-Rosendale 46.7%

Manchin 54.1%-Morrisey 45.9%

Smith 54.5%-Housley 45.5%

Baldwin 54.9%-Vukmir 45.1%

Casey 56.2%-Barletta 43.8%

Stabenow 57.6%- James 42.4%

Kaine 59.2%-Stewart 40.8%

Klobuchar 60.4%-Newberger 39.6%

We'll see on election Day. I know some of those are somewhat close (Missouri was the one that I really thought could go either way)

 

I just want to ask why your predictions are HEAVILY opinionated to the left? I mean like unrealistically left. Arizona is clearly going to be a republican state.

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On 10/27/2018 at 12:44 PM, Hestia11 said:

Entirely plausible.

If that was plausible, why did you not predict something like that? Instead you had every battleground state go democrat, so how is your idea any better than @TheMiddlePolitical''s idea?

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Just now, NYConservative said:

If that was plausible, why did you not predict something like that? Instead you had every battleground state go democrat, so how is your idea any better than @TheMiddlePolitical''s idea?

North Dakota/Tennessee/Texas are battlegrounds. I said it's plausible because it's entirely likely that those could flip. Looking back, I'd put Missouri or Nevada (not both) in the Republican column. It's just the states are so close (Nevada, Arizona, Missouri, Indiana, Florida especially), I look more at the polls and 538 than most. I think it's more likely 51-49 or 52-48, but I went more on race by race dynamics, which favor Democrats in some key states. Arizona is not by any means a solid Republican state, as Kyrsten Sinema is currently in the lead. 

Mine is better than his because Democrats are plausibly going to win in many of those states. It is unrealistic that Republicans win Penn, Michigan, or even West Virginia at this point. Certainly New Jersey. While Menendez is weakened, it is unrealistic he loses. While not impossible, very, very unlikely.  
It's simply one person's opinion. I wouldn't put too much weight on it.

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10 minutes ago, Hestia11 said:

North Dakota/Tennessee/Texas are battlegrounds. I said it's plausible because it's entirely likely that those could flip. Looking back, I'd put Missouri or Nevada (not both) in the Republican column. It's just the states are so close (Nevada, Arizona, Missouri, Indiana, Florida especially), I look more at the polls and 538 than most. I think it's more likely 51-49 or 52-48, but I went more on race by race dynamics, which favor Democrats in some key states. Arizona is not by any means a solid Republican state, as Kyrsten Sinema is currently in the lead. 

Mine is better than his because Democrats are plausibly going to win in many of those states. It is unrealistic that Republicans win Penn, Michigan, or even West Virginia at this point. Certainly New Jersey. While Menendez is weakened, it is unrealistic he loses. While not impossible, very, very unlikely.  
It's simply one person's opinion. I wouldn't put too much weight on it.

Have you seen the polls in WV,NJ? In MI James is surging. PA is possbible cause of the Trump effect,yours is much,much more impossible. 

 

But I’m sure you felt the same way in 2016,so keep on keeping on.

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Just now, TheMiddlePolitical said:

Have you seen the polls in WV,NJ? In MI James is surging. PA is possbible cause of the Trump effect,yours is much,much more impossible. 

  

But I’m sure you felt the same way in 2016,so keep on keeping on

You're entitled to your opinion just as mine. We'll see in a week and a half what happens.

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4 minutes ago, TheMiddlePolitical said:

Have you seen the polls in WV,NJ? In MI James is surging. PA is possbible cause of the Trump effect,yours is much,much more impossible. 

 

But I’m sure you felt the same way in 2016,so keep on keeping on.

Well, 2016 was a bust by the time the GE started anyways. When an election is effectively (or might as well be) between the Demon Prince of Lies and the Grand Duchess of Hell, it's pretty much a lost cause and a robbed election by that point alone. It's too bad a nation with 300 million opinionated people only had two real choices, and horrid, corrupt, lying monsters of choices at that.

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26 minutes ago, Hestia11 said:

North Dakota/Tennessee/Texas are battlegrounds. I said it's plausible because it's entirely likely that those could flip. Looking back, I'd put Missouri or Nevada (not both) in the Republican column. It's just the states are so close (Nevada, Arizona, Missouri, Indiana, Florida especially), I look more at the polls and 538 than most. I think it's more likely 51-49 or 52-48, but I went more on race by race dynamics, which favor Democrats in some key states. Arizona is not by any means a solid Republican state, as Kyrsten Sinema is currently in the lead. 

Mine is better than his because Democrats are plausibly going to win in many of those states. It is unrealistic that Republicans win Penn, Michigan, or even West Virginia at this point. Certainly New Jersey. While Menendez is weakened, it is unrealistic he loses. While not impossible, very, very unlikely.  
It's simply one person's opinion. I wouldn't put too much weight on it.

He did all republican, you did all democrat, You realize this isn't 1996?

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1 minute ago, NYConservative said:

He did all republican, you did all democrat, You realize this isn't 1996?

I mentioned North Dakota/Tennessee/Texas, did I not? We'll see on election day, we need to stop figuring on what will happen when it does no use at all.

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3 hours ago, TheMiddlePolitical said:

I go to quite a liberal university (in which I started a Young Democrats branch,as I did with my county),so this isn’t partisan in anyway.

After we averaged our predictions as a class (of 70 total students) the final was R 55-D 45 So I guess will see.

Are you saying there was no Democrats club at your university until you got there, and the average estimation for Republican Senate seats in your class was 55? That doesn't sound like a liberal university at all to me. I think too many people automatically associate higher education with being liberal, but that's not always true. I transferred to a very liberal college, but I originally went to a fairly conservative one. The Republicans club was pretty big, I don't think there was even a Democrats club, and the majority of students there were wealthy, conservative, white people (I mean practically everybody was white), yet they still claimed they went to a liberal school. I'm not saying your school isn't liberal, but many people at my previous school thought it was liberal when in reality it was quite conservative, so the same may be true in your case.

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2 hours ago, TheMiddlePolitical said:

Have you seen the polls in WV,NJ? In MI James is surging. PA is possbible cause of the Trump effect,yours is much,much more impossible. 

 

But I’m sure you felt the same way in 2016,so keep on keeping on.

I don't see how the polls favor Republicans at all in any of those states; Democrats are winning by a fair margin in all of them. Barring major scandals, Republicans will certainly lose those states.

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Capture41.PNG.5e34f6551c8a9f4c0f2983e6e3d10452.PNG

This, I think, is the more likely scenario. Mobilization proves mostly ineffective, and in fact the Democrats are down a seat. But I don't think a super-majority either way is likely.

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3 hours ago, Wiw said:

Capture41.PNG.5e34f6551c8a9f4c0f2983e6e3d10452.PNG

This, I think, is the more likely scenario. Mobilization proves mostly ineffective, and in fact the Democrats are down a seat. But I don't think a super-majority either way is likely.

Personally, I think this is plausible and favorable. I slightly think MO is more republican, but its right now a dead heat so I'm not going to predict anything about that.

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11 hours ago, Hestia11 said:

I mentioned North Dakota/Tennessee/Texas, did I not? We'll see on election day, we need to stop figuring on what will happen when it does no use at all.

Then why am I the only person here who didn't make a prediction map...?

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9 minutes ago, NYConservative said:

Then why am I the only person here who didn't make a prediction map...?

It was just for fun. I'd like to see and compare what happens on Election Day.

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1 minute ago, Hestia11 said:

It was just for fun. I'd like to see and compare what happens on Election Day.

I usually only do mine up right before the 1st poll closes.

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33 minutes ago, Hestia11 said:

It was just for fun. I'd like to see and compare what happens on Election Day.

Thank you as was mine! I appreciate you not making this into an argument,I hate when people do that lol.

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4 minutes ago, TheMiddlePolitical said:

Thank you as was mine! I appreciate you not making this into an argument,I hate when people do that lol.

Yeah. It’ll definitely be interesting to see how it all ends out, that’s for certain.

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On 10/27/2018 at 10:52 AM, Reagan04 said:

image.thumb.png.b5a282ceb692dc72e64583ce1078ac39.png

This is my current RATINGS map, not necessarily a RESULTS prediction. I tend to do a results prediction on the eve of the election and only do ratings up to that point.

A pretty good map. I'd make MT a light blue(for lean blue) and I'm torn on NJ being a pure tossup or a lean blue. I see why you view it as that,but I feel that Menendez wins by a narrow margin ( no more than 5). 

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On ‎10‎/‎26‎/‎2018 at 12:55 PM, TheMiddlePolitical said:

Here are my predictions: 

Capture.thumb.PNG.38cef751526e17b6a14e2ab8fa9fa47f.PNG

 

Yes-It's crazy. But I have a feeling. just like the 2016 election.

Predictions: For competitive races

NV: Heller (R) 53 Rosen (D) 47

AZ: McSally (R) 54 Sinema (D) 46

MT: Rosendale (R) 52 Tester (D) 48

ND:  Cramer (R) 56 Heitkamp (D) 44

TX: Cruz (R) 53 O'Rourke (D) 47 

MO: Hawley (R) 54 McCaskill (D) 46

IN: Braun (R) 51 Donnely (D) 49

TN: Blackburn (R) 55 Bredsen (D) 45

MI: James (R) 52 Stabenow (D) 48

PA: Barletta (R) 51 Casey (D) 49

WV: Morrisey (R) 53 Manchin (D) 47 

NJ: Hugin (R) 54 Merendez (D) 46

FL: Scott (R) 52 Nelson (D) 48

 

Republicans hold house by 5/6 seats

Republican Senate 60-40 Filibuster proof 

 

Pennsylvania isn't going to flip.  Michigan, while getting closer, is probably not going to flip either.  West Virginia is a bold prediction although not impossible.

On ‎10‎/‎26‎/‎2018 at 1:12 PM, Hestia11 said:

image.png.8071fd3563c7c2dfeee1567e587787f2.png

Closest Race (gets larger margins as it goes out):

McCaskill 50.2%-Hawley 49.8%

Rosen 50.6%-Heller 49.4%

Nelson 50.9%-Scott 49.1%

Sinema 51.1%-McSally 48.9%

Cramer 51.5%-Heitkamp 48.5%

Donnelly 51.9-Braun 48.1%

Blackburn 52.2%-Bredesen 47.8%

Cruz 52.6%-O'Rourke 47.4%

Tester 53.3%-Rosendale 46.7%

Manchin 54.1%-Morrisey 45.9%

Smith 54.5%-Housley 45.5%

Baldwin 54.9%-Vukmir 45.1%

Casey 56.2%-Barletta 43.8%

Stabenow 57.6%- James 42.4%

Kaine 59.2%-Stewart 40.8%

Klobuchar 60.4%-Newberger 39.6%

We'll see on election Day. I know some of those are somewhat close (Missouri was the one that I really thought could go either way)

 

 

On ‎10‎/‎26‎/‎2018 at 2:55 PM, jnewt said:

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On ‎10‎/‎27‎/‎2018 at 7:43 PM, Harris/Ernst 2020 said:

image.png.c1b6dda0b4ddd7af4b5db53056f23c40.png

I am unsure of Nevada, Missouri and Tennessee (to a much lesser degree) but at the moment this is my prediction.

 

On ‎10‎/‎27‎/‎2018 at 10:09 PM, SirLagsalott said:

image.thumb.png.77a359bf170a45f8513a087599c5649d.png

My personal guess.

I think polls are overstating the Democrats in NJ, WV, and IN. My personal bellwether come election night is going to be TN. If Democrats manage to win it - or come within, say, 2%, I think they'll do well elsewhere on election night. If Bredesen is down 10% or so by the time most ballots are counted, it's signifying a large portion of the electorate voting strictly party-line which is bad news for the Democrats in IN, WV, AZ, MT, ND, and TX.

 

Arizona is not going to flip now.  Sinema's campaign is in a tail spin.  Also, I think McCaskill is screwed because of the Kavanaugh stuff.  If that hadn't happened, I think she'd win.  But, that changed the game.  I'm less certain about Indiana, but I think it'll have a similar impact.  Nevada will be close, but Rosen has run a terrible campaign, and pundicts are now saying it leans towards Republican.

 

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Just now, jvikings1 said:

<div align="center"><a href="http://www.270towin.com/2018-senate-election/lEnGJa"><img src="http://www.270towin.com/2018-senate-election/lEnGJa.png" width="800"></a><br><small><img style="vertical-align: middle;" src="http://www.270towin.com/uploads/3rd_party_270_30px.png" alt="" /> Click the map to create your own at <a href="http://www.270towin.com/2018-senate-election/lEnGJa">270toWin.com</a></small></div>

 

I don't speak this language

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3 hours ago, Sunnymentoaddict said:

A pretty good map. I'd make MT a light blue(for lean blue) and I'm torn on NJ being a pure tossup or a lean blue. I see why you view it as that,but I feel that Menendez wins by a narrow margin ( no more than 5). 

Both of them I have in the Tilt D column. Like I said, I tried to eliminate Toss-ups, and I'd definitely give Menendez and Tester the edge. If I had to choose between toss-up and lean with no tilt option, I'd say NJ is Lean D and MT is a Toss-Up. But given my self-set parameters, I rate them both as Tilt D.

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4 hours ago, jvikings1 said:

Arizona is not going to flip now.  Sinema's campaign is in a tail spin.

Up until very recently, Sinema was winning in all the polls. While it's certainly possible she loses because of McSally's momentum, I wouldn't be so certain of it.

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5 hours ago, jvikings1 said:

Pennsylvania isn't going to flip.  Michigan, while getting closer, is probably not going to flip either.  West Virginia is a bold prediction although not impossible.

 

 

 

 

Arizona is not going to flip now.  Sinema's campaign is in a tail spin.  Also, I think McCaskill is screwed because of the Kavanaugh stuff.  If that hadn't happened, I think she'd win.  But, that changed the game.  I'm less certain about Indiana, but I think it'll have a similar impact.  Nevada will be close, but Rosen has run a terrible campaign, and pundicts are now saying it leans towards Republican.

 

AZ: Sinema(D) has been leading consistently in nearly every poll for awhile now. I wouldn't be surprised if she narrowly lost; but I feel she is the favorite. 

MO:  I feel this is the ultimate tossup. I really doubt there are that many Kavanaugh fans(Kavanauts) that were going to support McCaskill but changed their mind. I say that because Jon Tester is doing pretty well- despite being in a redder state. 

NV: As much as I want Rosen to win, I feel Heller will narrowly win that state.

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