Jump to content
270soft Forum
Sign in to follow this  
TheMiddlePolitical

Your Senate 2018 predictions (Relates to CI :) )

Recommended Posts

On ‎10‎/‎29‎/‎2018 at 6:05 PM, jnewt said:

Up until very recently, Sinema was winning in all the polls. While it's certainly possible she loses because of McSally's momentum, I wouldn't be so certain of it.

 

On ‎10‎/‎29‎/‎2018 at 6:49 PM, Sunnymentoaddict said:

AZ: Sinema(D) has been leading consistently in nearly every poll for awhile now. I wouldn't be surprised if she narrowly lost; but I feel she is the favorite. 

MO:  I feel this is the ultimate tossup. I really doubt there are that many Kavanaugh fans(Kavanauts) that were going to support McCaskill but changed their mind. I say that because Jon Tester is doing pretty well- despite being in a redder state. 

NV: As much as I want Rosen to win, I feel Heller will narrowly win that state.

Some of the stuff about Sinema that has come out in the past week has severely damaged her campaign.  I would be very surprised if she's able to recover from it (especially combined with the Kavanaugh stuff).  However, in this day and age, I could be totally wrong in my prediction here.

In MO, Hawley was running a terrible campaign and had pissed off a large number of Republicans during the primary.  While those voters may not have broken for McKaskill, a good number probably would have stayed home or supported a 3rd party/independent candidate.  However, the Kavanaugh hearing changed a lot of minds of those type of voters.  Plus, Hawley's specialty is the judiciary, so the Kavanaugh stuff plays to his strengths.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 minutes ago, jvikings1 said:

 

Some of the stuff about Sinema that has come out in the past week has severely damaged her campaign.  I would be very surprised if she's able to recover from it (especially combined with the Kavanaugh stuff).  However, in this day and age, I could be totally wrong in my prediction here.

In MO, Hawley was running a terrible campaign and had pissed off a large number of Republicans during the primary.  While those voters may not have broken for McKaskill, a good number probably would have stayed home or supported a 3rd party/independent candidate.  However, the Kavanaugh hearing changed a lot of minds of those type of voters.  Plus, Hawley's specialty is the judiciary, so the Kavanaugh stuff plays to his strengths.

The thing that really bugs (and disturbs) me about the Kavanaugh hearing was not which I personally believe between him and Ford - I, unlike a LOT of people, don't claim to know or have any realistic or plausible way of knowing - but that the results of the hearing, on the hot-button issue, came down, mostly, to a partisan divide and nepotistic closing of ranks, and NOT any sort of due process - a VERY inauspicious start to a top-level JUDICIAL appointment, and a clear sign of a greater, broader, worse problem afoot, in my personal, but firm, opinion.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Here are all of my predictions,

Gov:
b8rg.png

House:

unknown.png?width=702&height=600

Senate:

aQ7DD8.png?width=800&height=511

The Senate Margin is the same but I flipped Indiana to Tilt R from Tilt D and I flipped Florida from Tilt R to Tilt D.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Republicans pick up one, maybe two in the senate. Probably in Missouri, ND or Florida. Nevada is a possibility too but I see them losing that by 4% cause of latino turnout.

House solidly goes to democrats and Republicans have a strong showing in the gov races as per usual

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

my final prediction for the Senate:

aLR7X8.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

GOVERNORS:

eoBv.png

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, Conservative Elector 2 said:

GOVERNORS:

eoBv.png

 

Somehow, despite your defying of the florida conception of Gillum, you appear correct correct and correct so far.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 hours ago, Conservative Elector 2 said:

Your number was right,just needed to switch Montana and Nevada

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thoroughly enjoying this thread post-election. I had had Scott winning florida in my 270 map for almost three weeks now. He's good at statewide elections, especially when it's close. Braun did come as a surprise, but not Cramer or Hawley. I was over-optimistic about Heller and had expected him to win. I thought Tester was going to win by a larger margin. I don't believe Bresden ever had a /real/ chance. I think Hyde-Smith will win in the runoff anyway. McSally always had this AZ senate race. It's my home state, and people who voted blue down the ticket refused to vote for Sinema. She was a terrible candidate. 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  

×