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TheMiddlePolitical

Your Senate 2018 predictions (Relates to CI :) )

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Here are my predictions: 

Capture.thumb.PNG.38cef751526e17b6a14e2ab8fa9fa47f.PNG

 

Yes-It's crazy. But I have a feeling. just like the 2016 election.

Predictions: For competitive races

NV: Heller (R) 53 Rosen (D) 47

AZ: McSally (R) 54 Sinema (D) 46

MT: Rosendale (R) 52 Tester (D) 48

ND:  Cramer (R) 56 Heitkamp (D) 44

TX: Cruz (R) 53 O'Rourke (D) 47 

MO: Hawley (R) 54 McCaskill (D) 46

IN: Braun (R) 51 Donnely (D) 49

TN: Blackburn (R) 55 Bredsen (D) 45

MI: James (R) 52 Stabenow (D) 48

PA: Barletta (R) 51 Casey (D) 49

WV: Morrisey (R) 53 Manchin (D) 47 

NJ: Hugin (R) 54 Merendez (D) 46

FL: Scott (R) 52 Nelson (D) 48

 

Republicans hold house by 5/6 seats

Republican Senate 60-40 Filibuster proof 

 

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7 minutes ago, TheMiddlePolitical said:

Here are my predictions: 

Capture.thumb.PNG.38cef751526e17b6a14e2ab8fa9fa47f.PNG

 

Yes-It's crazy. But I have a feeling. just like the 2016 election.

Predictions: For competitive races

NV: Heller (R) 53 Rosen (D) 47

AZ: McSally (R) 54 Sinema (D) 46

MT: Rosendale (R) 52 Tester (D) 48

ND:  Cramer (R) 56 Heitkamp (D) 44

TX: Cruz (R) 53 O'Rourke (D) 47 

MO: Hawley (R) 54 McCaskill (D) 46

IN: Braun (R) 51 Donnely (D) 49

TN: Blackburn (R) 55 Bredsen (D) 45

MI: James (R) 52 Stabenow (D) 48

PA: Barletta (R) 51 Casey (D) 49

WV: Morrisey (R) 53 Manchin (D) 47 

NJ: Hugin (R) 54 Merendez (D) 46

FL: Scott (R) 52 Nelson (D) 48

 

Republicans hold house by 5/6 seats

Republican Senate 60-40 Filibuster proof 

 

Horribly wrong so I'll make my own.

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Just now, Hestia11 said:

Horribly wrong so I'll make my own.

How is it wrong when the election hasn't happened? It's a prediction,yours will be just as irrelevant as mine. So make yourself feel good lol.

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Just now, TheMiddlePolitical said:

How is it wrong when the election hasn't happened? It's a prediction,yours will be just as irrelevant as mine. So make yourself feel good lol.

I will :) Most are simply implausible, near impossible. Esp. Stabenow and Casey.

image.png

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1 minute ago, Hestia11 said:

I will :) Most are simply implausible, near impossible. Esp. Stabenow and Casey.

image.png

Remember how impossible it was for Trump to win Michigan and PA in 2016? I said he would win then and I was right,and Your's is just as impossible,move on. 

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image.png.8071fd3563c7c2dfeee1567e587787f2.png

Closest Race (gets larger margins as it goes out):

McCaskill 50.2%-Hawley 49.8%

Rosen 50.6%-Heller 49.4%

Nelson 50.9%-Scott 49.1%

Sinema 51.1%-McSally 48.9%

Cramer 51.5%-Heitkamp 48.5%

Donnelly 51.9-Braun 48.1%

Blackburn 52.2%-Bredesen 47.8%

Cruz 52.6%-O'Rourke 47.4%

Tester 53.3%-Rosendale 46.7%

Manchin 54.1%-Morrisey 45.9%

Smith 54.5%-Housley 45.5%

Baldwin 54.9%-Vukmir 45.1%

Casey 56.2%-Barletta 43.8%

Stabenow 57.6%- James 42.4%

Kaine 59.2%-Stewart 40.8%

Klobuchar 60.4%-Newberger 39.6%

We'll see on election Day. I know some of those are somewhat close (Missouri was the one that I really thought could go either way)

 

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4 minutes ago, TheMiddlePolitical said:

Remember how impossible it was for Trump to win Michigan and PA in 2016? I said he would win then and I was right,and Your's is just as impossible,move on. 

Not impossible for him to win them. Mine is not impossible, maybe check 538 before saying it's impossible. I think it's likely it'll be 50-52 seats for Reps, 50-48 for Dems. Missouri, Nevada are the closest races I think.

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2 hours ago, TheMiddlePolitical said:

Here are my predictions: 

Capture.thumb.PNG.38cef751526e17b6a14e2ab8fa9fa47f.PNG

 

Yes-It's crazy. But I have a feeling. just like the 2016 election.

Predictions: For competitive races

NV: Heller (R) 53 Rosen (D) 47

AZ: McSally (R) 54 Sinema (D) 46

MT: Rosendale (R) 52 Tester (D) 48

ND:  Cramer (R) 56 Heitkamp (D) 44

TX: Cruz (R) 53 O'Rourke (D) 47 

MO: Hawley (R) 54 McCaskill (D) 46

IN: Braun (R) 51 Donnely (D) 49

TN: Blackburn (R) 55 Bredsen (D) 45

MI: James (R) 52 Stabenow (D) 48

PA: Barletta (R) 51 Casey (D) 49

WV: Morrisey (R) 53 Manchin (D) 47 

NJ: Hugin (R) 54 Merendez (D) 46

FL: Scott (R) 52 Nelson (D) 48

 

Republicans hold house by 5/6 seats

Republican Senate 60-40 Filibuster proof 

 

This seems more like what you want to have happen. Most of these predictions are kind of out of left field, especially in your own homestate of PA. 

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OH: Brown by 14

MN(s): Smith by 13

WI: Baldwin by 12

WV: Minchin by 9

NJ: Menendez by 8

MT: Tester by 6

ND: Cramer by 6

TX: Cruz by 4

AZ: Sinema by 4

FL: Nelson by 3

IN: Donnelly by 3

MO: McCaskill by 2

TN: Blackburn by 2

NV: Rosen by 2

270soft sen.png

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18 hours ago, vcczar said:

This seems more like what you want to have happen. Most of these predictions are kind of out of left field, especially in your own homestate of PA. 

Same with the other two of them. None of these look particularly realistic in my opinion.

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image.thumb.png.b5a282ceb692dc72e64583ce1078ac39.png

This is my current RATINGS map, not necessarily a RESULTS prediction. I tend to do a results prediction on the eve of the election and only do ratings up to that point.

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1 hour ago, Reagan04 said:

image.thumb.png.b5a282ceb692dc72e64583ce1078ac39.png

This is my current RATINGS map, not necessarily a RESULTS prediction. I tend to do a results prediction on the eve of the election and only do ratings up to that point.

Entirely plausible.

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21 hours ago, vcczar said:

This seems more like what you want to have happen. Most of these predictions are kind of out of left field, especially in your own homestate of PA. 

Not at all actually,I wouldn't be wasting my time being on campaign staffs and canvassing constantly for Democratic candidates,Michigan and PA yeah are a bit "out there",However litterally every other election is feasible. 

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I'll make my predictions closer to election day. I feel like so much depends upon issues of the final week and how much the MAGA Bomber and other shootings impact voters. 

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image.thumb.png.77a359bf170a45f8513a087599c5649d.png

My personal guess.

I think polls are overstating the Democrats in NJ, WV, and IN. My personal bellwether come election night is going to be TN. If Democrats manage to win it - or come within, say, 2%, I think they'll do well elsewhere on election night. If Bredesen is down 10% or so by the time most ballots are counted, it's signifying a large portion of the electorate voting strictly party-line which is bad news for the Democrats in IN, WV, AZ, MT, ND, and TX.

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After doing tons of reading and having to write a 4 page paper on our predictions for the midterms this year this is my FINAL prediction-I ment to make Texas and TN one shade darker

Capture.thumb.PNG.9549072e9e5891ec8726c783c3ae7679.PNG

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5 hours ago, TheMiddlePolitical said:

After doing tons of reading and having to write a 4 page paper on our predictions for the midterms this year this is my FINAL prediction-I ment to make Texas and TN one shade darker

Capture.thumb.PNG.9549072e9e5891ec8726c783c3ae7679.PNG

That looks like the literal best-case scenario for the Republicans, why do you think they'll win just about every single close election in the country?

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8 minutes ago, SirLagsalott said:

That looks like the literal best-case scenario for the Republicans, why do you think they'll win just about every single close election in the country?

This. That’s essentially what I meant earlier.

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It's very interesting how much Bredesen's campaign has foundered in Tennessee. As an intern for his campaign, the Kavanaugh hearings completely changed the tone of the campaign. Bredesen's support for Kavanaugh caused many Dem field offices to completely drop him from their campaigns, and my office became a Karl Dean office.

As soon as the Kavanaugh hearings came to the national spotlight, most of us knew that Bredesen's path became next to impossible. He can win against Blackburn on a regional scale, but when national issues are involved Tennessee is going to vote Republican. 

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13 minutes ago, CalebsParadox said:

It's very interesting how much Bredesen's campaign has foundered in Tennessee. As an intern for his campaign, the Kavanaugh hearings completely changed the tone of the campaign. Bredesen's support for Kavanaugh caused many Dem field offices to completely drop him from their campaigns, and my office became a Karl Dean office.

As soon as the Kavanaugh hearings came to the national spotlight, most of us knew that Bredesen's path became next to impossible. He can win against Blackburn on a regional scale, but when national issues are involved Tennessee is going to vote Republican. 

Did you happen to see the leaked tapes of his staffers talking about National Issues?

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1 hour ago, Reagan04 said:

Did you happen to see the leaked tapes of his staffers talking about National Issues?

Yes, I did. Even at the field office I worked at in Lebanon, TN, we viewed the original statement as inauthentic and obvious political pandering. The tapes coming out was no surprise whatsoever, no one actually believed Phil when he said that he would have supported Kavanaugh.

It was a political stunt that backfired in the worst possible way. He lost the support of liberals, some national Super PACs, and a very good chunk of his canvassing operation from his statement of support, with almost no gain amongst conservatives. When it came out he didn't even mean it, my mother who typically votes Republican and was considering voting for Phil decided that he was just as inauthentic as every other politician out there and is now casting her vote for Blackburn. 

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4 minutes ago, CalebsParadox said:

Yes, I did. Even at the field office I worked at in Lebanon, TN, we viewed the original statement as inauthentic and obvious political pandering. The tapes coming out was no surprise whatsoever, no one actually believed Phil when he said that he would have supported Kavanaugh.

It was a political stunt that backfired in the worst possible way. He lost the support of liberals, some national Super PACs, and a very good chunk of his canvassing operation from his statement of support, with almost no gain amongst conservatives. When it came out he didn't even mean it, my mother who typically votes Republican and was considering voting for Phil decided that he was just as inauthentic as every other politician out there and is now casting her vote for Blackburn. 

Well, I'm glad to hear that. Marsha Blackburn has long been one of my favorite members of Congress and I will be elated to see her give much-needed reinforcements to the Anti-Mitch gang led by the likes of national heroes such as Cruz, Paul, and Lee. Hopefully, we'll be adding a few more like Blackburn and McDaniel into the GOP Senate caucus.

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1 minute ago, Reagan04 said:

Well, I'm glad to hear that. Marsha Blackburn has long been one of my favorite members of Congress and I will be elated to see her give much-needed reinforcements to the Anti-Mitch gang led by the likes of national heroes such as Cruz, Paul, and Lee. Hopefully, we'll be adding a few more like Blackburn and McDaniel into the GOP Senate caucus.

While I disagree with your affinity towards Blackburn, it's good that you will likely be pleased by the result of the election and I can't fault you for rooting for someone who shares your values.

Interestingly, I don't think you would be overly disappointed with Bredesen's election if he were to win in an upset. The greatest appeal to me for Bredesen was that he very obviously refused to run an "anti-Trump" campaign, and tried to focus the race on himself versus his opponent. The Democratic Party is not going to do well in 2020 if they continue to be the party of "anyone but Trump", and Bredesen's election would only go to strengthen the idea of moderation and party identity based on policy. 

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