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vcczar

October Surprise 2018

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The 1980 election had the Iran Hostage situation, which helped Reagan. The 2012 election had Hurricane Sandy, which helped Obama. The 2016 election had Comey's information on Clinton, which helped Trump. Does this election have an October Surprise? If so, what is it? Who does it help?

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2 hours ago, vcczar said:

The 1980 election had the Iran Hostage situation, which helped Reagan. The 2012 election had Hurricane Sandy, which helped Obama. The 2016 election had Comey's information on Clinton, which helped Trump. Does this election have an October Surprise? If so, what is it? Who does it help?

I hate to say it, but, although there are a few (probably coincidental) precedents that you just listed, I think seriously expecting one might be a wee bit on the superstitious side.

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19 hours ago, vcczar said:

The 1980 election had the Iran Hostage situation, which helped Reagan. The 2012 election had Hurricane Sandy, which helped Obama. The 2016 election had Comey's information on Clinton, which helped Trump. Does this election have an October Surprise? If so, what is it? Who does it help?

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/clinton-bomb-live-obama-cnn-evacuated-home-update-latest-threat-package-target-george-soros-a8599591.html

Call me cynical, but I doubt this'll actually be some deranged Trump supporter like the media will make it out to be

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20 hours ago, vcczar said:

The 1980 election had the Iran Hostage situation, which helped Reagan. The 2012 election had Hurricane Sandy, which helped Obama. The 2016 election had Comey's information on Clinton, which helped Trump. Does this election have an October Surprise? If so, what is it? Who does it help?

2008: The falling stock market(Since the main issues of the primaries were regarding the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan).

2012: Hurricane Sandy.

2016: Easily the Comey letter. Though that was in November lol.

2018: I'm torn if it will be the caravan, or Mitch McConnel calling for cuts into Social Security. Hell it could be something two days before the election. I feel it is too early to say something is a surprise right now. 

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9 minutes ago, Sunnymentoaddict said:

2008: The falling stock market(Since the main issues of the primaries were regarding the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan).

2012: Hurricane Sandy.

2016: Easily the Comey letter. Though that was in November lol.

2018: I'm torn if it will be the caravan, or Mitch McConnel calling for cuts into Social Security. Hell it could be something two days before the election. I feel it is too early to say something is a surprise right now. 

Mitch McConnel calling for cuts into Social Security would only be a surprise to the highly sheltered, uninformed, or naïve, or those unaware of American politics or who McConnel was. McConnel suddenly resigning out of the blue would be a REAL surprise, for instance!

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I think it's either going to be the caravan or the bomb packages. 

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1 hour ago, vcczar said:

I think it's either going to be the caravan or the bomb packages. 

I think there have been concentrated "October Surprises" for several Senate Democratic candidates in the form of the Project Veritas tapes released on them. Especially Sinema, Heitkamp, McCaskill, and Bredesen. I think the tapes really hurt all four of their chances.

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28 minutes ago, Reagan04 said:

I think there have been concentrated "October Surprises" for several Senate Democratic candidates in the form of the Project Veritas tapes released on them. Especially Sinema, Heitkamp, McCaskill, and Bredesen. I think the tapes really hurt all four of their chances.

Sorry, but this is the first I've heard of this - even the use of the 'Project Veritas' term. And we here in Canada usually have to live in caves or go hiking off into the wilderness to avoid the U.S. political (and entertainment and culture) news spam.

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1 minute ago, Patine said:

Sorry, but this is the first I've heard of this - even the use of the 'Project Veritas' term. And we here in Canada usually have to live in caves or go hiking off into the wilderness to avoid the U.S. political (and entertainment and culture) news spam.

Same, never heard of it. Pretty sure "October Surprise" should be a national thing.

Edit: Seems to be a purely conservative group that looks for reasons to hit Democrats. Doesn't seem like a surprise to me.

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2 minutes ago, Hestia11 said:

Same, never heard of it. Pretty sure "October Surprise" should be a national thing.

Edit: Seems to be a purely conservative group that looks for reasons to hit Democrats. Doesn't seem like a surprise to me.

 

3 minutes ago, Patine said:

Sorry, but this is the first I've heard of this - even the use of the 'Project Veritas' term. And we here in Canada usually have to live in caves or go hiking off into the wilderness to avoid the U.S. political (and entertainment and culture) news spam.

Which is why I said "Concentrated" lol. Several tapes of the Senators or Senatorial staffers saying things which make them look to the left of where they are have dropped in the four mentioned states, making the bids for those race's Democrats much harder. 

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1 minute ago, Reagan04 said:

 

Which is why I said "Concentrated" lol. Several tapes of the Senators or Senatorial staffers saying things which make them look to the left of where they are have dropped in the four mentioned states, making the bids for those race's Democrats much harder. 

I wonder how long the terms "the left" and "the right" used in the common usage and narrative of two unthinking, sheepish, hive-mind, implacable, neo-Manichaeist blocs in inevitable, solid conflict of which all must choose a side and follow all the way down the line will the stay in the common zeitgeist before people come to their senses and start viewing things sensibly, realistically, rationally, and intelligently again. I'm just kind of musing. I can't wait, personally, for this absolutely idiotic, brain-dead phase of socio-political development to pass.

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1 minute ago, Patine said:

I wonder how long the terms "the left" and "the right" used in the common usage and narrative of two unthinking, sheepish, hive-mind, implacable, neo-Manichaeist blocs in inevitable, solid conflict of which all must choose a side and follow all the way down the line will the stay in the common zeitgeist before people come to their senses and start viewing things sensibly, realistically, rationally, and intelligently again. I'm just kind of musing. I can't wait, personally, for this absolutely idiotic, brain-dead phase of socio-political development to pass.

If I had a dime for every time you went on an ethereal tangent totally irrelevant to the topic at hand only to express how much more neurologically advanced you are than everyone else in the room, well, to quote Maren Morris, "I'd basically be sittin' on a big ass pile of dimes."

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Just now, Reagan04 said:

If I had a dime for every time you went on an ethereal tangent totally irrelevant to the topic at hand only to express how much more neurologically advanced you are than everyone else in the room, well, to quote Maren Morris, "I'd basically be sittin' on a big ass pile of dimes."

Well, if that's the only response you're going to give every time now, then the subject matter of my posts will obviously be ignored as a matter of source using that mechanism as a form of self-righteousness. A very typical trick of reactionary thinking to not have to think about, or consider seriously, any articulated challenge to the stringent and inflexible line of thought that defines reactionary thinking, so that the stringent line can be unchallenged, because a stated mechanism to avoid even considering or thinking about the pointing out of flaws in one's artificially limited worldview can be avoided. Very clever, @Reagan04, but it's a trick that will only hamper you in the long run.

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1 minute ago, Patine said:

Well, if that's the only response you're going to give every time now, then the subject matter of my posts will obviously be ignored as a matter of source using that mechanism as a form of self-righteousness. A very typical trick of reactionary thinking to not have to think about, or consider seriously, any articulated challenge to the stringent and inflexible line of thought that defines reactionary thinking, so that the stringent line can be unchallenged, because a stated mechanism to avoid even considering or thinking about the pointing out of flaws in one's artificially limited worldview can be avoided. Very clever, @Reagan04, but it's a trick that will only hamper you in the long run.

The sound of another dime filling my coffers can be heard

In all reality, we don't need the stump speeches every time someone uses the phrase to express a general idea. We get it, you can be pedantic with ideological labels, this isn't currently a discussion on the ethic of political ideology and how it should be categorized. I think you have the capacity to make good and insightful points but you ruin it with their frequency and omnipresent nature.

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53 minutes ago, Reagan04 said:

I think there have been concentrated "October Surprises" for several Senate Democratic candidates in the form of the Project Veritas tapes released on them. Especially Sinema, Heitkamp, McCaskill, and Bredesen. I think the tapes really hurt all four of their chances.

I haven’t heard of these tapes either, and I read about midterms across the country daily. They must be incredibly under the radar. I wouldn’t call that an “October Surprise,” even if it’s local. 

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1 minute ago, Reagan04 said:

The sound of another dime filling my coffers can be heard

In all reality, we don't need the stump speeches every time someone uses the phrase to express a general idea. We get it, you can be pedantic with ideological labels, this isn't currently a discussion on the ethic of political ideology and how it should be categorized. I think you have the capacity to make good and insightful points but you ruin it with their frequency and omnipresent nature.

Sir Winston Churchill believed important points required constant repetition to hammer forth. Given what I've been seeing here, I have been repetitive ENOUGH!

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Just now, vcczar said:

I haven’t heard of these tapes either, and I read about midterms across the country daily. They must be incredibly under the radar. I wouldn’t call that an “October Surprise,” even if it’s local. 

You must have heard of the Sinema tapes at least.

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4 minutes ago, Reagan04 said:

The sound of another dime filling my coffers can be heard

In all reality, we don't need the stump speeches every time someone uses the phrase to express a general idea. We get it, you can be pedantic with ideological labels, this isn't currently a discussion on the ethic of political ideology and how it should be categorized. I think you have the capacity to make good and insightful points but you ruin it with their frequency and omnipresent nature.

But you are correct. I have come with this out of nowhere. And, since everything I do to try to help you see things outside of a narrow, pinprick worldview designed for you by manipulative, evil people who have raised as you as another drone sheep supporter and built their empire on constantly using the Lord's name in vane to justify so many things anathema to Christ's ministry as though they were righteous is purely voluntary philanthropy on my part - it's not my job - I am quickly realizing that I cannot guide you from the mire you so willingly wallow in. So forget I said anything here.

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4 minutes ago, Reagan04 said:

You must have heard of the Sinema tapes at least.

Is this about her being anti-war? If so, I have. This stance hasn’t really affected her polling since then. I think Trump’s increased approval has more to do with Dem polling numbers down in some states. 

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6 minutes ago, Reagan04 said:

You must have heard of the Sinema tapes at least.

Yet she maintains a lead. I don't think it's as big as people think - her actions in Congress speak for itself. 

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3 minutes ago, Hestia11 said:

Yet she maintains a lead. I don't think it's as big as people think - her actions in Congress speak for itself. 

I wouldn't say she maintains a lead.

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1 minute ago, vcczar said:

Is this about her being anti-war? If so, I have. This stance hasn’t really affected her polling since then. I think Trump’s increased approval has more to do with Dem polling numbers down in some states. 

I think the term "anti-war' has come to just be used in the U.S  political parlance for "anti-military adventurism to enrich resource and contracting corporations and settle political scores that common Americans have no vested interest or stake in." I doubt any American lawmaker would oppose a truly defensive war if U.S. territory were threatened with actual invasion. And, indeed, if that's the case, then anyone who supports "pro-war" candidates and excoriates "anti-war" ones should be viewed warily and dubiously as to their true priorities.

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Per FiveThirtyEight Kirsten Sinema maintains a 2.1% lead in polling as well as a 2% lead overall. By all accounts, that is a lead. Although polling has been sporadic in results, most either give McSally a very slight lead or Sinema a low to midsize lead, which accounts for her overall lead in polling. For example, the last four polls have McSally plus 1.6, Sinema plus 6.4, McSally plus 1, and Sinema plus 5.2. Beyond that, her lead is even more consistent.

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51 minutes ago, vcczar said:

Is this about her being anti-war? If so, I have. This stance hasn’t really affected her polling since then. I think Trump’s increased approval has more to do with Dem polling numbers down in some states. 

I wouldn't call being ok with Americans joining the Taliban and then also calling Arizona the Crazy state repeated times as well as the "Meth Lab of Democracy" about her being merely "anti-war".

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13 minutes ago, Reagan04 said:

I wouldn't call being ok with Americans joining the Taliban and then also calling Arizona the Crazy state repeated times as well as the "Meth Lab of Democracy" about her being merely "anti-war".

Well, given Trump, Cruz, Santorum, Huckabee, and Gingrich have said equally ridiculous, incendiary, off-the-wall, and bizarre statements (just different specific subject matter), and you're not excoriating them or viewing them in the same light, given your last words on those particular candidates, it must all be a matter of perspective from whom your intelligence and sensibilities being insulted is completely inappropriate, for whom it's acceptable, and for whom it's even laudable.

(BTW, this post is ON TOPIC).

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