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vcczar

Ranking the Potential Democratic Candidates

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I've use our list from the previous poll to help rank the potential Democratic candidates. Here's the top 10. 

A. Frontrunner 

none

B. Initial Competitors 

1. VP Joe Biden (DE) - Has name recognition and personality to appeal to voters. His issues are his age, his ties to the establishment, and the fear that some sort of MeToo scandal could erupt at some point, considering how touchy-feely Biden is. Nevertheless, he has the personality to combat Trump, and he's the person to save Obama's legacy. ***Most likely going to run***

2. Sen. Bernie Sanders (VT) - Easily the most exciting candidate for the Democratic Party. He routinely scores as the most popular sitting politician in polls. He's made Democratic Socialistic Progressivism popular again for the first time since the 1960s. He could bring the Liberal voters out in large numbers. The downside is that he's nearing 80 years old. Despite his popularity, he probably has a ceiling of support. He could send moderates looking for a 3rd party. The African-American vote might not come out for him. ***Most likely going to run, unless the Democrats prevent it, or unless he is happy with another progressive candidate***

3. Sen. Booker (NJ) - The most president ready Democrat under the age of 60. While he hasn't the eloquence of Obama, he is has charismatic moments, and he's energetic. He's moved swiftly further left in an effort to energize the base in the primaries. He used to live in public housing as mayor of Newark, and so he can make an appeal to being a politician of the people much better than Trump can. He will bring out the African-American vote. On the downside, he's never been married, which may matter for some people and spark rumors about his sexuality. He comes from a state that is known to have a high level of corruption, so dirt might be easy to find on Booker. ***Most likely going to run***

4. Sen. Warren (MA) - The most vocal anti-Trump politician with name recognition. She's the default leader of the Progressive Wing of the Democratic Party, and she will excite the base and bring out the vote in a way that Clinton could not. However, she admits to a social anxiety that is unlikely to be helpful on campaign and on debates. It is noticeable as her voice sometimes shakes when she speaks. She's will be 71 in 2020. She has been the primary target of Trump, who probably sees her as the most likely nominee. It is to be seen whether or not his "Pocahontas" tactic has any real effect on Warren's appeal. Some argue that Warren isn't interested in the presidency, so she may just be tricking Trump into directing his attacks on her, rather than only other candidates. ***Most likely not going to run***

C. Potential Competitors if the top 4 collapse

5. Sen. Harris (CA) - For those wishing for a minority candidate, she checks off several boxes. She's a very aggressive debater, and she may be able to press attacks on Trump in a way that doesn't look scripted. She's relatively a fresh face, but she's also less experienced than a candidate facing Trump should be. She's having a hard time convincing progressives that she's one of them.  ***Seems likely that she will run***

6. Gov. Hickenlooper (CO) - If any moderate has a chance, it's going to be Hickenlooper. He's got a strong record in Colorado, a state that is sometimes considered a battleground state, even though it routinely goes Blue. He could help keep Nevada, and earn wins among White Voters in the Midwest and in Arizona. In short, he's a strong General Election candidate.  The downside for him is that he's not a strong primary candidate and he may not bring out the vote among the progressive base or among African-American voters. In the primaries, he will have to show both a genuine sense of humor and a combative style that shows he can take on Trump. ***May or may not run***

D. Potential Competitors with some flaws. 

7. Sen. Merkley (OR) - Merkley has the benefit of seeming like a fresh face, since no one knows who he is. This is also a flaw. No one knows who he is. He will appeal to those most excited about Warren and Sanders, but he lacks their combative nature. He wins if a large portion of Trump voters are tired of Trump, otherwise Merkley might get shoved aside in the General Election by a more aggressive opponent. Merkley will have to adjust his body language to appear like he really wants to fight Trump and save the country. He's always appeared too nice to me. ***May or may not run***

8. Sen. Gillibrand (NY) -- She states that she isn't interested, but no Senator has a more anti-Trump voting record--not Warren or Sanders. This makes it seem as if she's gearing up for a run. However, as she was the Senator that took over Hillary Clinton's seat, she could be tagged as "Hillary 2.0" Trump could keep referring her as that, and it may do enough to drive voters away. Voters also tend to not like politicians labeled as flip-floppers. Gillibrand used to be a moderate. Voters may tire of another NY politician as the nominee (Clinton and Trump are from NY). ***Seems like she's running***

9. Gov. Cuomo (NY) - No one has more executive government experience than Cuomo. He could likely take Trump on in a debate. However, like NJ and IL, NY is a state that is often labeled as having a high corruption level. It might be easy to find some dirt on him. Additionally, his brother works for CNN, which may cause Trump to call Cuomo "the Fake News Candidate." For some dumb reason, Trump's school-yard-bully nicknames work on voters. ***May choose to continue leading NY***

10. Gov. Bullock (MT) - He's the moderate option if Hickenlooper doesn't run. Bullock has the George W. Bush good ol' boy factor, but he also looks intelligent as well. Bullock may not be able to win his own state, and he almost didn't win reelection. However, his appeal is likely to help him in many battleground states. He is an outsider of both the Washington establishment. The great fear is that Progressive will look elsewhere or not vote at all if he run. He's unlikely to build an exciting platform. ***May not run***

Missed the top 10: Sen. Klobuchar, Gov. McAuliffe, CEO Steyer, Gov. Patrick, Gov. O'Malley, CEO Schultz, CEO Bloomberg, Rep. Delaney. 

 

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Very interesting summaries of some of the main contenders at this point. The good thing about an open and vibrant primaries process, if it happens (unlike what happened last time around), is you can attract lots of candidates and then see what stuff they're made of during the primaries.

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The billionaires (Steyer, Schultz, Bloomberg) all seem to lack charisma. Do you think it's likely any of them will run?

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31 minutes ago, vcczar said:

I've use our list from the previous poll to help rank the potential Democratic candidates. Here's the top 10. 

A. Frontrunner 

none

B. Initial Competitors 

1. VP Joe Biden (DE) - Has name recognition and personality to appeal to voters. His issues are his age, his ties to the establishment, and the fear that some sort of MeToo scandal could erupt at some point, considering how touchy-feely Biden is. Nevertheless, he has the personality to combat Trump, and he's the person to save Obama's legacy. ***Most likely going to run***

2. Sen. Bernie Sanders (VT) - Easily the most exciting candidate for the Democratic Party. He routinely scores as the most popular sitting politician in polls. He's made Democratic Socialistic Progressivism popular again for the first time since the 1960s. He could bring the Liberal voters out in large numbers. The downside is that he's nearing 80 years old. Despite his popularity, he probably has a ceiling of support. He could send moderates looking for a 3rd party. The African-American vote might not come out for him. ***Most likely going to run, unless the Democrats prevent it, or unless he is happy with another progressive candidate***

3. Sen. Booker (NJ) - The most president ready Democrat under the age of 60. While he hasn't the eloquence of Obama, he is has charismatic moments, and he's energetic. He's moved swiftly further left in an effort to energize the base in the primaries. He used to live in public housing as mayor of Newark, and so he can make an appeal to being a politician of the people much better than Trump can. He will bring out the African-American vote. On the downside, he's never been married, which may matter for some people and spark rumors about his sexuality. He comes from a state that is known to have a high level of corruption, so dirt might be easy to find on Booker. ***Most likely going to run***

4. Sen. Warren (MA) - The most vocal anti-Trump politician with name recognition. She's the default leader of the Progressive Wing of the Democratic Party, and she will excite the base and bring out the vote in a way that Clinton could not. However, she admits to a social anxiety that is unlikely to be helpful on campaign and on debates. It is noticeable as her voice sometimes shakes when she speaks. She's will be 71 in 2020. She has been the primary target of Trump, who probably sees her as the most likely nominee. It is to be seen whether or not his "Pocahontas" tactic has any real effect on Warren's appeal. Some argue that Warren isn't interested in the presidency, so she may just be tricking Trump into directing his attacks on her, rather than only other candidates. ***Most likely not going to run***

C. Potential Competitors if the top 4 collapse

5. Sen. Harris (CA) - For those wishing for a minority candidate, she checks off several boxes. She's a very aggressive debater, and she may be able to press attacks on Trump in a way that doesn't look scripted. She's relatively a fresh face, but she's also less experienced than a candidate facing Trump should be. She's having a hard time convincing progressives that she's one of them.  ***Seems likely that she will run***

6. Gov. Hickenlooper (CO) - If any moderate has a chance, it's going to be Hickenlooper. He's got a strong record in Colorado, a state that is sometimes considered a battleground state, even though it routinely goes Blue. He could help keep Nevada, and earn wins among White Voters in the Midwest and in Arizona. In short, he's a strong General Election candidate.  The downside for him is that he's not a strong primary candidate and he may not bring out the vote among the progressive base or among African-American voters. In the primaries, he will have to show both a genuine sense of humor and a combative style that shows he can take on Trump. ***May or may not run***

D. Potential Competitors with some flaws. 

7. Sen. Merkley (OR) - Merkley has the benefit of seeming like a fresh face, since no one knows who he is. This is also a flaw. No one knows who he is. He will appeal to those most excited about Warren and Sanders, but he lacks their combative nature. He wins if a large portion of Trump voters are tired of Trump, otherwise Merkley might get shoved aside in the General Election by a more aggressive opponent. Merkley will have to adjust his body language to appear like he really wants to fight Trump and save the country. He's always appeared too nice to me. ***May or may not run***

8. Sen. Gillibrand (NY) -- She states that she isn't interested, but no Senator has a more anti-Trump voting record--not Warren or Sanders. This makes it seem as if she's gearing up for a run. However, as she was the Senator that took over Hillary Clinton's seat, she could be tagged as "Hillary 2.0" Trump could keep referring her as that, and it may do enough to drive voters away. Voters also tend to not like politicians labeled as flip-floppers. Gillibrand used to be a moderate. Voters may tire of another NY politician as the nominee (Clinton and Trump are from NY). ***Seems like she's running***

9. Gov. Cuomo (NY) - No one has more executive government experience than Cuomo. He could likely take Trump on in a debate. However, like NJ and IL, NY is a state that is often labeled as having a high corruption level. It might be easy to find some dirt on him. Additionally, his brother works for CNN, which may cause Trump to call Cuomo "the Fake News Candidate." For some dumb reason, Trump's school-yard-bully nicknames work on voters. ***May choose to continue leading NY***

10. Gov. Bullock (MT) - He's the moderate option if Hickenlooper doesn't run. Bullock has the George W. Bush good ol' boy factor, but he also looks intelligent as well. Bullock may not be able to win his own state, and he almost didn't win reelection. However, his appeal is likely to help him in many battleground states. He is an outsider of both the Washington establishment. The great fear is that Progressive will look elsewhere or not vote at all if he run. He's unlikely to build an exciting platform. ***May not run***

Missed the top 10: Sen. Klobuchar, Gov. McAuliffe, CEO Steyer, Gov. Patrick, Gov. O'Malley, CEO Schultz, CEO Bloomberg, Rep. Delaney. 

 

About Warren and Gillibrand outside of their bases they're popularity is limited.

Totally agree on Trump's name-calling.

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Biden is nearly as old as Sanders.  Warren will be in her 70's in 2020.  The Dems need to get as far away from Boomers (and older) as they can.

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41 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

The billionaires (Steyer, Schultz, Bloomberg) all seem to lack charisma. Do you think it's likely any of them will run?

I think of any of them could. I think Steyer is too much like a loose cannon like Trump, and would be just as bad of a president and party leader, even if, like Trump, he is able to accomplish some things that a standard politician cannot. Bloomberg would probably be competent, but uninspiring. I think Schultz has the best potential for an exciting platform, but I don't really want any billionaire as president. I agree, they lack charisma. I think one of them could run--probably Steyer. I hope he doesn't get the nomination.  

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16 minutes ago, pilight said:

Biden is nearly as old as Sanders.  Warren will be in her 70's in 2020.  The Dems need to get as far away from Boomers (and older) as they can.

Yeah, that leaves Booker, Harris, Gillibrand, and Bullock. Democrats have a lot of interesting politicians in their 30s and 40s, but they aren't ready yet. 

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1 hour ago, NYrepublican said:

Totally agree on Trump's name-calling.

Ah, yes. Endless name-calling. The tell-tale tactic of bickering schoolyard children is now more and more becoming a mainstay of prominent heads-of-state. What is this world coming to?

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42 minutes ago, Patine said:

Ah, yes. Endless name-calling. The tell-tale tactic of bickering schoolyard children is now more and more becoming a mainstay of prominent heads-of-state. What is this world coming to?

Name-calling has been around for as long as ancient politics have been around. Are you really that surprised? 

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6 minutes ago, ThePotatoWalrus said:

Name-calling has been around for as long as ancient politics have been around. Are you really that surprised? 

No, just disappointed that, after 7000 years or so of recorded history, many of the most powerful, influential, and wealthy people in the world still can't grow up and act their age and with some dignity...

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2 minutes ago, Patine said:

No, just disappointed that, after 7000 years or so of recorded history, many of the most powerful, influential, and wealthy people in the world still can't grow up and act their age and with some dignity...

I can agree with that. 

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Here is the full list of potential Democratic candidates as I see them. 

Former VPs:

Joe Biden (DE)

Governors:

John Hickenlooper (CO), will be former governor

Terry McAuliffe (VA), former

Deval Patrick (MA), former

Steve Bullock (MT)

Lincoln Chafee (RI) former

John Bel Edwards (LA)

Martin O'Malley (MD), former

Jerry Brown (CA), will be former gov

Andrew Cuomo (NY)

Jay Inslee (WA)

Gavin Newsom (CA), likely next governor of California

US Sen: 

Cory Booker (NJ)

Kamala Harris (CA)

Jeff Merkley (OR)

Bernie Sanders (VT)

Richard Blumenthal (CT)

Tammy Duckworth (IL)

Amy Klobuchar (MN)

Sherrod Brown (OH)

Kirsten Gillibrand (NY)

Tim Kaine (VA)

Chris Murphy (CT)

Elizabeth Warren (MA)

US Reps:

John Delaney (MD) **Declared**

Tulsi Gabbard (HI)

Tim Ryan (OH)

Adam Schiff (CA)

Luis Gutierrez (IL), will be former

Joe P. Kennedy III (MA)

Seth Mouton (MA)

Maxine Waters (CA)

Sec:

Julian Castro (TX), former HUD Sec

Eric Holder (DC), former Att Gen

John Kerry (MA), former Sec of State

Hillary Clinton (NY), former Sec of State

Mayor:

Pete Buttigieg (IN), South Bend

Eric Garcetti (CA), Los Angeles

Michael Bloomberg (NY), former NYC mayor

Bill de Blasio (NY), mayor of NYC

Jason Kander (MO), likely new mayor of Kansas City

Mitch Landrieu (LA), mayor of New Orleans

State Politicians 

Nna Turner (OH), former state senator 

Non-politicians:

Michael Avenatti (CA), Stormy Daniel's attorney

Alec Baldwin (NY), actor

Howard Schultz (NY), former Starbucks CEO

Tom Steyer (CA), CEO

Mark Cuban (TX), sportsteam owner

Dwayne Johnson (FL), actor and wrestler

Oprah Winfrey (CA) talk show host

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30 minutes ago, vcczar said:

Here is the full list of potential Democratic candidates as I see them. 

Former VPs:

Joe Biden (DE)

Governors:

John Hickenlooper (CO), will be former governor

Terry McAuliffe (VA), former

Deval Patrick (MA), former

Steve Bullock (MT)

Lincoln Chafee (RI) former

John Bel Edwards (LA)

Martin O'Malley (MD), former

Jerry Brown (CA), will be former gov

Andrew Cuomo (NY)

Jay Inslee (WA)

Gavin Newsom (CA), likely next governor of California

US Sen: 

Cory Booker (NJ)

Kamala Harris (CA)

Jeff Merkley (OR)

Bernie Sanders (VT)

Richard Blumenthal (CT)

Tammy Duckworth (IL)

Amy Klobuchar (MN)

Sherrod Brown (OH)

Kirsten Gillibrand (NY)

Tim Kaine (VA)

Chris Murphy (CT)

Elizabeth Warren (MA)

US Reps:

John Delaney (MD) **Declared**

Tulsi Gabbard (HI)

Tim Ryan (OH)

Adam Schiff (CA)

Luis Gutierrez (IL), will be former

Joe P. Kennedy III (MA)

Seth Mouton (MA)

Maxine Waters (CA)

Sec:

Julian Castro (TX), former HUD Sec

Eric Holder (DC), former Att Gen

John Kerry (MA), former Sec of State

Hillary Clinton (NY), former Sec of State

Mayor:

Pete Buttigieg (IN), South Bend

Eric Garcetti (CA), Los Angeles

Michael Bloomberg (NY), former NYC mayor

Bill de Blasio (NY), mayor of NYC

Jason Kander (MO), likely new mayor of Kansas City

Mitch Landrieu (LA), mayor of New Orleans

State Politicians 

Nna Turner (OH), former state senator 

Non-politicians:

Michael Avenatti (CA), Stormy Daniel's attorney

Alec Baldwin (NY), actor

Howard Schultz (NY), former Starbucks CEO

Tom Steyer (CA), CEO

Mark Cuban (TX), sportsteam owner

Dwayne Johnson (FL), actor and wrestler

Oprah Winfrey (CA) talk show host

A question on Gabbard. Has someone who registered their residence in Hawaii at the time of the election cycle (as opposed to State of birth, but not residence, like Obama) for a major Duopoly Party (so not including Roseanne Barr's run in 2008 for the Freedom and Justice Party), and not including an obvious "favourite son" candidate to secure a major candidate's control of the State's primaries delegates, like Hiram Fong, in 1968, ever run before in a U.S. election, out of curiosity?

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4 minutes ago, Patine said:

A question on Gabbard. Has someone who registered their residence in Hawaii at the time of the election cycle (as opposed to State of birth, but not residence, like Obama) for a major Duopoly Party (so not including Roseanne Barr's run in 2008 for the Freedom and Justice Party), and not including an obvious "favourite son" candidate to secure a major candidate's control of the State's primaries delegates, like Hiram Fong, in 1968, ever run before in a U.S. election, out of curiosity?

Your sentence has so many clauses that it obscured what you are saying, but I'll try to understand it (typically, one should aim for readability). After rereading, the answer is "no."

I would have written this as: A question on Gabbard. Excluding favorite sons, has a registered resident of Hawaii ever run before in a US presidential election as a Democrat or a Republican? My question excludes examples like Barack Obama, who was only born in Hawaii, or Hiram Fong, who was only a "favorite son" candidate.

I'm sure someone could even improve my paraphrase of your question, since I don't claim to be the best writer. I'm usually not picky about writing, but I think too many clauses is one of my pet peeves, since I often have to reread the sentence. It's like zigzagging down a road instead of just driving straight through. 

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Question re Gabbard: has Hawai'ian ever run for president as Dem or Rep? (excludes favorite sons, or Obama who was born in Kenya and just vacations there).

;)

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3 hours ago, admin_270 said:

Obama who was born in Kenya and just vacations there).

Thank-you for that. Do you also secretly believe in shape-shifting reptilian aliens replacing and controlling high-ranking government officials?

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9 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

Most politicians obviously are shape-shifting reptilians ... no clandestine replacement required. ;)

Ah, I see you too are a man of culture and 'woke' as well.

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1 minute ago, ThePotatoWalrus said:

Ah, I see you too are a man of culture and 'woke' as well.

"Woke?" Is that the term they use now? Sounds like a cannabis culture/New Age/airy fairy term to me...

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Just now, Patine said:

 "Woke?" Is that the term they use now? Sounds like a cannabis culture/New Age/airy fairy term to me...

Found the guy who isn't 'woke'

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On 7/6/2018 at 7:07 PM, pilight said:

Biden is nearly as old as Sanders.  Warren will be in her 70's in 2020.  The Dems need to get as far away from Boomers (and older) as they can.

I disagree. Very few people vote on the basis of the candidates' age, and arguably more are willing to vote against someone on the basis of being young and untested than of being old and seasoned, hence Reagan's quip to Mondale in one of the 1984 debates. 

Nancy Pelosi needs to be replaced, however. Not because of her age, but because she is a proven failure at winning House majorities, just as William Jennings Bryan (whose career peaked at a relatively young age) was a proven failure at winning presidential elections. 

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On ‎7‎/‎6‎/‎2018 at 12:07 PM, pilight said:

Biden is nearly as old as Sanders.  Warren will be in her 70's in 2020.  The Dems need to get as far away from Boomers (and older) as they can.

 

2 hours ago, RFK/JFKfan said:

I disagree. Very few people vote on the basis of the candidates' age, and arguably more are willing to vote against someone on the basis of being young and untested than of being old and seasoned, hence Reagan's quip to Mondale in one of the 1984 debates. 

Nancy Pelosi needs to be replaced, however. Not because of her age, but because she is a proven failure at winning House majorities, just as William Jennings Bryan (whose career peaked at a relatively young age) was a proven failure at winning presidential elections. 

Case and point - Donald Trump was the oldest man first elected U.S. President, and the second oldest first elected to a First World position of national leadership (after West German Chancellor Konrad Adenauer at 73), ever. Age doesn't seem to be THAT big of a factor there, depending on how the rest stacks up.

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3 hours ago, RFK/JFKfan said:

I disagree. Very few people vote on the basis of the candidates' age, and arguably more are willing to vote against someone on the basis of being young and untested than of being old and seasoned, hence Reagan's quip to Mondale in one of the 1984 debates. 

Nancy Pelosi needs to be replaced, however. Not because of her age, but because she is a proven failure at winning House majorities, just as William Jennings Bryan (whose career peaked at a relatively young age) was a proven failure at winning presidential elections. 

 

I know he can get the job, but can he do the job?

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4 hours ago, RFK/JFKfan said:

Nancy Pelosi needs to be replaced, however. Not because of her age, but because she is a proven failure at winning House majorities, just as William Jennings Bryan (whose career peaked at a relatively young age) was a proven failure at winning presidential elections. 

Personally, I believe that State Legislative control of Congressional Districts within their borders and the effective legality of gerrymandering, which I believe are corruption, abuses of power, and malfeasance of public duty that NEED to be remedied in a just and equivocal manner, are perhaps MORE responsible for Pelosi's "inability" to win House Majorities.

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On 7/12/2018 at 10:36 PM, pilight said:

 

I know he can get the job, but can he do the job?

Being a 70-something today is roughly equivalent to being a 40-/50-something in the time of Abraham Lincoln (who was 56 when he first took office). Putting aside age, however, many of the greatest presidents suffered from numerous health issues during their presidencies - FDR, Lincoln, JFK, Reagan, Eisenhower, to name the more obvious examples, and they encompass a fairly wide range of ages. Unless someone wishes to correct me, the likes of Buchanan, Pierce, W. Bush (also a fairly wide range of ages) etc had relatively smooth states of health during their times in office. 

As I said in another thread, political nous is the most important factor in a successful candidate, and probably also in a successful politician. Experience/location/age/ideology/health/position/ pale in comparison. 

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