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vcczar

2020 Candidate Outlook

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Definitely Running:

Pres. Trump (Rep)

Rep. Delaney (Dem)

Seems like they're running:

Gov. Kasich (Rep)

Fmr VP Biden (Dem)

Seems likely, but probably won't run:

Sen. Sanders - He will be 78, and Sanders progressives haven't been performing well. 

Sen. Warren - She admits to having social anxiety. I don't think she wants to run. 

Sen. Flake - He won't want to divide Kasich's vote if Kasich can gather any momentum. More likely he campaigns for Kasich. 

CEO Steyer 

CEO Schultz

Gov. Bullock - too moderate

Sen. Edwards - too moderate

On the fence:

Sen. Booker

Sen. Harris

Gov. Hickenlooper

Sen. Merkley

Gov. McAuliffe

Fmr Gov. Patrick

Won't run, because support and/or recognition will be lacking:

Fmr Sec. Castro

Fmr Gov. O'Malley

Mayor Buttigieg

Mayor Garcetti

Fmr Att Gen. Holder

Jason Kander

Fmr Sec Kerry

Rep. Gabbard

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2 minutes ago, vcczar said:

Definitely Running:

Pres. Trump (Rep)

Rep. Delaney (Dem)

Seems like they're running:

Gov. Kasich (Rep)

Fmr VP Biden (Dem)

Seems likely, but probably won't run:

Sen. Sanders - He will be 78, and Sanders progressives haven't been performing well. 

Sen. Warren - She admits to having social anxiety. I don't think she wants to run. 

Sen. Flake - He won't want to divide Kasich's vote if Kasich can gather any momentum. More likely he campaigns for Kasich. 

CEO Steyer 

CEO Schultz

Gov. Bullock - too moderate

Sen. Edwards - too moderate

On the fence:

Sen. Booker

Sen. Harris

Gov. Hickenlooper

Sen. Merkley

Gov. McAuliffe

Fmr Gov. Patrick

Won't run, because support and/or recognition will be lacking:

Fmr Sec. Castro

Fmr Gov. O'Malley

Mayor Buttigieg

Mayor Garcetti

Fmr Att Gen. Holder

Jason Kander

Fmr Sec Kerry

Rep. Gabbard

This is looking to be a very uninspiring and disappointing election.

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6 minutes ago, Patine said:

This is looking to be a very uninspiring and disappointing election.

It is. Robby Mook (my cousin) in a recent interview pretty much said that the next candidate needs to be someone that is the opposite of Hillary Clinton. He didn't actually say it, but he said for the next candidate: 1) The resume will not matter  2) It will be someone that is new and fresh  3) Someone different, like Trump, but hopefully better. 

However,  I don't see this candidate anywhere. I think Jason Kander comes the closest. Had Al Franken not disgraced himself, he would have been great. 

I think Biden could beat Trump, which is good, but he isn't terribly exciting. I'd obviously vote for him. Merkley would likely have an exciting platform, but he isn't personally exciting. 

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7 minutes ago, vcczar said:

It is. Robby Mook (my cousin) in a recent interview pretty much said that the next candidate needs to be someone that is the opposite of Hillary Clinton. He didn't actually say it, but he said for the next candidate: 1) The resume will not matter  2) It will be someone that is new and fresh  3) Someone different, like Trump, but hopefully better. 

However,  I don't see this candidate anywhere. I think Jason Kander comes the closest. Had Al Franken not disgraced himself, he would have been great. 

I think Biden could beat Trump, which is good, but he isn't terribly exciting. I'd obviously vote for him. Merkley would likely have an exciting platform, but he isn't personally exciting. 

What really gets me, and why I think the political culture of the U.S. is becoming broken and is close to tanking, is that, in a nation of over 300 million people, why have so few stand-out candidates (there have been a few definitely, but only really a few, relatively) for the nation's highest executive - an office highly glorified and promoted in American fiction, media, and culture - come forth as actually viable contenders in my lifetime (since 1976)?

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5 minutes ago, Patine said:

What really gets me, and why I think the political culture of the U.S. is becoming broken and is close to tanking, is that, in a nation of over 300 million people, why have so few stand-out candidates (there have been a few definitely, but only really a few, relatively) for the nation's highest executive - an office highly glorified and promoted in American fiction, media, and culture - come forth as actually viable contenders in my lifetime (since 1976)?

We need major election reform

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Joe Kennedy? And also I will livestream myself drinking an entire bottle of Tabasco if Kasich runs. Guaranteed. Screenshot this for later if you want.

4 hours ago, vcczar said:

We need major election reform

Why? And what would be reformed?

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8 minutes ago, ThePotatoWalrus said:

Joe Kennedy?

He's already denied any intention of running in 2020, representatives hardly ever run, and he's not even going to be 40 years old in 2020. He'll wait until he's a Senator to run for President. If he did run, he'd be close to as bad a candidate as Clinton.

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5 hours ago, vcczar said:

 

I think Biden could beat Trump, which is good, but he isn't terribly exciting. I'd obviously vote for him. Merkley would likely have an exciting platform, but he isn't personally exciting. 

I honestly feel that A) He will be too old to run.  B ) Too similar to Trump in demeanor that it will turn off many voters to go for him. 

Think how W- a Christian conservative- ran after Clinton. Obama- a man whom embraced a liberal multicultural vision of the US- came after W. And it is obvious that Trump is the opposite of Obama. Pushing Biden because he is like Trump, reminds me of the DNC trying to make John Kerry  a front runner during the W era, or the RNC doing the same with Rubio during Obama. There's nothing wrong with Biden, I wouldn't mind voting for him, but I feel others would have reservations towards him. That said, his popularity in the black community in the American south is something that cannot be ignored. And could possibly say, "Sunny, you're wrong...we will make him the next nominee".

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11 minutes ago, Sunnymentoaddict said:

I honestly feel that A) He will be too old to run.  B ) Too similar to Trump in demeanor that it will turn off many voters to go for him. 

Think how W- a Christian conservative- ran after Clinton. Obama- a man whom embraced a liberal multicultural vision of the US- came after W. And it is obvious that Trump is the opposite of Obama. Pushing Biden because he is like Trump, reminds me of the DNC trying to make John Kerry  a front runner during the W era, or the RNC doing the same with Rubio during Obama. There's nothing wrong with Biden, I wouldn't mind voting for him, but I feel others would have reservations towards him. That said, his popularity in the black community in the American south is something that cannot be ignored. And could possibly say, "Sunny, you're wrong...we will make him the next nominee".

That's actually a really good point (the opposite of the current president stuff). Never analyzed it that way 

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1 hour ago, ThePotatoWalrus said:

That's actually a really good point (the opposite of the current president stuff). Never analyzed it that way 

America has a long tradition of overcorrection at the Presidential level. Dana Carvey called it "The Feather in America's Cap" that we do such a thing.

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I think Sanders will run, and honestly, with the crop of candidates available right now? He's probably the best chance the Democrats have. Even then, I feel like the election will be a very close one.

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6 hours ago, Reagan04 said:

America has a long tradition of overcorrection at the Presidential level. Dana Carvey called it "The Feather in America's Cap" that we do such a thing.

The constant need for overcorrection in a system is NOT a "feather in a cap" - it is a clear sign of a broken system, and self-congratulation of such is a clear sign of a state of delusional self-denial that reform and changes NEED to happen.

 

8 hours ago, Sunnymentoaddict said:

I honestly feel that A) He will be too old to run.  B ) Too similar to Trump in demeanor that it will turn off many voters to go for him. 

Think how W- a Christian conservative- ran after Clinton. Obama- a man whom embraced a liberal multicultural vision of the US- came after W. And it is obvious that Trump is the opposite of Obama. Pushing Biden because he is like Trump, reminds me of the DNC trying to make John Kerry  a front runner during the W era, or the RNC doing the same with Rubio during Obama. There's nothing wrong with Biden, I wouldn't mind voting for him, but I feel others would have reservations towards him. That said, his popularity in the black community in the American south is something that cannot be ignored. And could possibly say, "Sunny, you're wrong...we will make him the next nominee".

George W. Bush may have been a conservative, but please, don't call him a "Christian." He promoted all Seven Deadly Sins as great virtues and nationalistic rallying point that he tried to impart are what actually defined "American exceptionalism" and "the American Dream."

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15 hours ago, vcczar said:

Sen. Edwards - too moderate

Do we talk about Kerry's VP from 2004 (A political comeback from a southern Democrat would be very interesting) or did you mean Gov. Edwards of Louisiana?

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2 hours ago, Patine said:

The constant need for overcorrection in a system is NOT a "feather in a cap" - it is a clear sign of a broken system, and self-congratulation of such is a clear sign of a state of delusional self-denial that reform and changes NEED to happen.

 

George W. Bush may have been a conservative, but please, don't call him a "Christian." He promoted all Seven Deadly Sins as great virtues and nationalistic rallying point that he tried to impart are what actually defined "American exceptionalism" and "the American Dream."

Regardless of how he governed, in 2000 W campaigned as a 'compassionate conservative', and also in 2004. A not so subtle dig at Clinton, if I add. But that Christian conservatism is why, for awhile there was a parody map called "Jesusland". 

That aside...

 

1 hour ago, Conservative Elector 2 said:

Do we talk about Kerry's VP from 2004 (A political comeback from a southern Democrat would be very interesting) or did you mean Gov. Edwards of Louisiana?

I think it has to be Gov Edwards, since the Senator has been disgraced and essentially ran out of the party. 

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@Conservative Elector 2 @ThePotatoWalrus

A moderate Democrat is not likely to be a nominee any time soon. The primaries, especially with California moving its date up, is going to make it impossible for them to win the nomination. In most cases, the Democratic nominee is probably going to be less moderate than the Republican nominee (excluding what occurred in 2016). The reason for this is primarily because history is generally progressive--we progress forward. Progressives aim to speed the process up and Conservatives aim to slow it down (Ultra-conservatives try to regress the process). As it is a ball that is always moving, it is natural that there are more Republicans that accept the inevitability than there are Democrats in favor of moderately slowing something down. This is why you get nominees like McCain and Romney, generally for Republicans. Clinton, a somewhat moderate Democrat, had to move left to ensure that she beat Sanders. As for me, I don't see the point of much of a slow down, except to be cautious. I wish the two parties were the Humanitarian Party and the Science Party, and that fiscal policy was debated only so far as it allowed these parties to carry out their ultimate purpose for the sake of the nation and humanity. 

As far as reform. We need to make it possible that it is possible that a non-billionaire, non-politician has a shot at the presidency. This would probably mean an Equal Air Time law; Cap on Funding law (or equal funding law); a different debate platform. I think all primaries should be on the same day. Obviously, none of this would happen. I'd like to see a rule that allows only 10 politicians or former politicians for each party. Only 5 non-politicians with a networth of over 1 million. Only 5 non-politicians of a networth of less than 1 million. Each one for the primaries gets equal air time. The top 5 political parties get equal air time for the primaries. Ideally, endorsements wouldn't be allowed until after the primaries. All Conventions get equal time. All Conventions are held on the same day. The General Election rules can be more or less like the current rules, but all 5 largest parties are allowed in the debate. Candidates must release their tax history, criminal record, detailed platform & budget, and proposed cabinet list a week prior of election day. Voting will be two rounds and by popular vote. If no one gets 50.1% of the vote, then the two most popular parties go on to round 2, forming coalitions with the other parties, adjusting their platforms, etc. in an effort to gain support. The second vote would occur a month later. Each president must offer the losing candidate a position on the cabinet--Department of the Opposition--or something. His or her job would be to add the leading opposing viewpoints to policy discussion. A good president would be able to use this person so as to make their own policies more attractive to other members of Congress. The person can also act as a sort of watchdog to make sure that the president isn't being too partisan, especially unethically so. This also gives the opposition leader White House experience as a regular member of cabinet meetings, etc. 

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Both McCain and Romney moved to the right in order to get the nomination, although in the case of Romney he was perhaps slightly more moderate in his 2012 run than in his 2008 run.

 

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23 minutes ago, RFK/JFKfan said:

Both McCain and Romney moved to the right in order to get the nomination, although in the case of Romney he was perhaps slightly more moderate in his 2012 run than in his 2008 run.

 

Romney campaigning in 2012 to abolish Federally a health care insurance funding planning he, himself, introduced in Massachusetts before Obama gained the Presidency in the first place, was priceless. :P

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I will literally double down and say that if Kasich, Biden, or Sanders run I will down an entire bottle of Tabasco sauce and post it in a thread. I will also do it if Cory Booker or Gillibrand DO NOT run. I am confident those two will run 100%.

In fact, if Trump has any Republican challenger (who is a major name in the GOP, at least a notable Representative or any Senator or Governor) I will do it.

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11 hours ago, ThePotatoWalrus said:

I will literally double down and say that if Kasich, Biden, or Sanders run I will down an entire bottle of Tabasco sauce and post it in a thread. I will also do it if Cory Booker or Gillibrand DO NOT run. I am confident those two will run 100%.

In fact, if Trump has any Republican challenger (who is a major name in the GOP, at least a notable Representative or any Senator or Governor) I will do it.

I'm holding you to this. I think you dug yourself into a hole that you won't get out of. 

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6 hours ago, vcczar said:

I'm holding you to this. I think you dug yourself into a hole that you won't get out of. 

I'm a man of my word. Primaries aren't that far away.

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