Jump to content
270soft Forum
Sunnymentoaddict

Primaries Discussion thread

Recommended Posts

We are halfway through the primary season and yet there is no thread dedicated to this special political process! I think we should share who we are voting for(if you want to) or our own predictions for the upcoming primaries. 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

DfdJ7LaWAAIgOIp.jpg

I found this on a Cortez's twitter for NY-14

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

For my SC predictions, I will focus on the Governor race, and the SC-1st Congressional district race(my district).

 

GoP: (Counties to watch for: Anderson, Greenville, Spartanburg counties in the upstate. Lexington in the midlands. Horry County- a county that went heavily for Trump in the primary- where plenty of older retired Republican voters live. And also Colleton County: a county that  Obama narrowly won twice before flipping to Trump. It has a near 50/50 mix of white working class voters, and the staple of the Democratic party-the black community.)
 

  • Henry McMaster- The current incumbent governor. Somehow didn't inherit the popularity of his predecessor, Nikki Haley, despite having the backing of Donald Trump. While I am not a huge supporter of him, a lot of the criticism towards him feels like the Van Burren effect. Where Martin van Burren shouldered all of the results from Jackson's poor policy decisions. In this state it is the failed nuclear power plant project that began years before he was even Lt Governor. But attack ads be damned if were force to conform to logic. Henry is currently leading in the polls, but not enough to avoid a runoff. 
  • Yancy McGill- A former Lt Governor. That sounds like the kind of experience that can fix the corruption in the state! Problem is Yancy was a Democrat when he served as Lt Governor, and only received that post not through a popular vote, but by chain of succession. I highly doubt he will make it to the run off.
  • Catherine Templeton- She's received much attention in the state media for her comments such as saying she was "proud of the Confederacy", or releasing terrible ads like this one. That aside, having served as the head of South Carolina Labor, Licensing and Regulations during the Haley administration has guaranteed her access to Nikki Haley's close supporters. I am highly curious how the suburban counties such as Dorchester, and Lexington will vote, especially among women. And I see her possibly making it to the runoff.
  • Lt Gov Kevin Bryant- It says a lot about McMaster that even his Lt Governor is trying to primary him. That aside, Kevin will probably get 4-8% of the vote. 
  • John Warren- Using 90's alt rock as a metaphor: Templeton is Soundgarden, and Warren is Nirvana. Templeton came first and paved the way for an outsider to campaign in a state that has a tradition of electing men connected to the state government. Well Warren took her playbook, and is running  a self funded campaign. A wealthy businessman challenging the political establishment by running a selffunded campaign? And Warren wants to be SC's Trump. I would not be surprised if he makes it to the runoff. Hell I wouldn't be surprised if the runoff was between Templeton and Warren.

Dems: (Counties to watch for: Richland-where Columbia is, Charleston, and Orangeburg.)

  • James Smith- State House Representative. Army veteran. Pretty moderate and plain spoken. Has the backing of nearly the entire state Democratic Party, and Joe Biden. I see him making it to the runoff unless something weird happens. 
  • Phil Noble- He is running to the left of Smith, and has attacked Smith for his rating from the NRA.. And these attacks are working. Despite the support from the state party, Noble is energizing progressives by running a solid progressive platform. Oddly enough this man is like the mirror image of Warren. Both are wealthy individuals that are on the far ends of the political spectrum running self funded campaigns that have a chance making it to their parties runoff.
  •  Marguerite Willis-  She is somewhere in between Smith and Noble,  However she has a stronger emphasis on gender equality. Polling wise, she is a bit further down than the two previous men- a side effect of also not being in the state government/received the party backing. Though that aside, I will not be surprised if she makes it to the runoff.

 

SC 1st Congressional district:

GoP

  • Mark Sanford- the incumbent and long time fixture of SC politics, with his first federal job being Congressman representing Charleston back in the 1990's. Since then he became governor, and then a Congressman a few years later(once the stench of his sex scandal wore off). Sanford despite being voted back to the House in 2013, isn't that popular. In 2016, Sanford faced a strong primary challenger and won by a margin of roughly 10%. This year now, he is being challenged by....
  • Katie Arrington- Attorney and current member of the SC state house. She is challenging Sanford not from the right per se, but on his stance of being a "never trumper". And it's working. A poll out has her in a statistical tie with Sanford: 39.9 Sanford, 39 Arrington. I will not be surprised if she wins, or is forced to the runoff.
  • Dimitri Cherny- I love this man. He is the epitome of the perennial candidate. He ran as a write-in in 2014. A Democrat in 2016. And now a Republican 2018.  What does he stand for? Well is for attacking democracy, and releasing whatever this is. I can see a situation where Cherny gets 1-4% of the vote and forces a runoff between Arrington and Sanford.

Dems

  • Joe Cunningham- For once the local Democratic party did not screw this up. A handsome young man that has the open endorsement of the popular former mayor, Joe Riley. I am curious to see how the results are by the county, if Cunningham can energize students and suburban voters in Charleston County to offset Sanford's(assuming he wins the nomination)stronghold in Beaufort County.
  • Toby Smith- To be honest as nice of a woman she might be, there is no way she will win this nomination. She has spent little money on the race, and the Charleston County Democratic Party has thrown their entire weight behind Joe.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
29 minutes ago, NYrepublican said:

DfdJ7LaWAAIgOIp.jpg

I found this on a Cortez's twitter for NY-14

Politics aside, I love the artwork for them. Also glad people still make campaign buttons. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Virginia's 10th congressional district, my own, is having an interesting election this year. The incumbent, establishment Republican, Barbara Comstock, is being challenged from the right by Shak Hill, who criticizes her not-conservative-enough voting record. The Democratic field is large, with State Senator Jennifer Wexton leading the pack, with strong fundraising from a lot of lesser-known candidates that could result in surprising results. (shameless link to my PI campaign about it)

Also I accidentally dragged the "insert other media" button into here. I can't remove it for some reason, so enjoy.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
51 minutes ago, SirLagsalott said:

Virginia's 10th congressional district, my own, is having an interesting election this year. The incumbent, establishment Republican, Barbara Comstock, is being challenged from the right by Shak Hill, who criticizes her not-conservative-enough voting record. The Democratic field is large, with State Senator Jennifer Wexton leading the pack, with strong fundraising from a lot of lesser-known candidates that could result in surprising results. (shameless link to my PI campaign about it)

 Also I accidentally dragged the "insert other media" button into here. I can't remove it for some reason, so enjoy.

hit the x at the bottom of the posting thing.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm most interested in Virginia Senate.

I am hoping for a Nick Freitas win in the Republican primary, but Corey Stewart could pull it off.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, SirLagsalott said:

Virginia's 10th congressional district, my own, is having an interesting election this year. The incumbent, establishment Republican, Barbara Comstock, is being challenged from the right by Shak Hill, who criticizes her not-conservative-enough voting record. The Democratic field is large, with State Senator Jennifer Wexton leading the pack, with strong fundraising from a lot of lesser-known candidates that could result in surprising results. (shameless link to my PI campaign about it)

Also I accidentally dragged the "insert other media" button into here. I can't remove it for some reason, so enjoy.

It says a lot about the GoP that Comstock isn't seen as a "true conservative ". 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well... Tim Kaine has just won re-election tonight

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

@Sunnymentoaddict Thanks for this in depth analysis of South Carolinian politics. Very much appreciated.

@jvikings1 no big fan of Corey Stewart or do you just think that voters will reject him?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 hours ago, jvikings1 said:

Well... Tim Kaine has just won re-election tonight

It's kinda hard to lose while running unopposed lol.
Thoughts on Stewart winning the nomination? 

@Conservative Elector 2. Thanks! In all honesty, I am not surprised Sanford lost last night- or McMaster facing a runoff. However I am surprised by the vote percentage James Smith received, roughly >60%.

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The Virginia Senate primary field wasn't that interesting. A Confederate-lover who will lose, an evangelical who will lose, or a tea partier who will lose by a slightly smaller amount.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 hours ago, Sunnymentoaddict said:

It says a lot about the GoP that Comstock isn't seen as a "true conservative ". 

I think "true conservative" is just a tagline and slander/attack point used without much thought or real justification by out-of-touch, uninformed, even deluded, far-right-wing extremists who should NOT have power in a modern, civilized nation to attack their political opponents. I believe many people in the United States (and some other parts of the world) don't even understand the meanings of the political terms "conservative" or "liberal" anymore.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

NY 14 is really a proxy primary between the establishment and the Bernie wing. Crowley has all the establishment endorsements while Cortez is largely endorsed by the Bernie wing. Im not sure who will win (though Crowley has a massive financial advantage.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
39 minutes ago, NYrepublican said:

NY 14 is really a proxy primary between the establishment and the Bernie wing. Crowley has all the establishment endorsements while Cortez is largely endorsed by the Bernie wing. Im not sure who will win (though Crowley has a massive financial advantage.

Tried finding polling for that race, and could not find any. But from how you're describing the race, I will not be surprised to see Cortez hit 40% of the vote.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Sunnymentoaddict said:

Tried finding polling for that race, and could not find any. But from how you're describing the race, I will not be surprised to see Cortez hit 40% of the vote.

there's been no official polling.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On ‎6‎/‎13‎/‎2018 at 2:40 AM, Conservative Elector 2 said:

@Sunnymentoaddict Thanks for this in depth analysis of South Carolinian politics. Very much appreciated.

@jvikings1 no big fan of Corey Stewart or do you just think that voters will reject him?

Both

On ‎6‎/‎13‎/‎2018 at 8:13 AM, Sunnymentoaddict said:

It's kinda hard to lose while running unopposed lol.
Thoughts on Stewart winning the nomination? 

@Conservative Elector 2. Thanks! In all honesty, I am not surprised Sanford lost last night- or McMaster facing a runoff. However I am surprised by the vote percentage James Smith received, roughly >60%.

 

 

I was referring to what I think is a fact that Corey Stewart has no chance to win.  He's a fake conservative that refuses to condemn white supremacy and anti-Semitism.  Nick Freitas could have given Time Kaine a challenge in the general (It still would have been difficult), but I think there will be a large number of Republicans voting somewhere else (or not at all).  It'll be interesting to see how Matt Waters (The Libertarian) does in this race.

I would have been very interested in this race if Freitas won the nomination, however I'm not at all interested.  I won't support either major party candidate.  If I was voting I'd probably go with Waters.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, jvikings1 said:

Both

I was referring to what I think is a fact that Corey Stewart has no chance to win.  He's a fake conservative that refuses to condemn white supremacy and anti-Semitism.  Nick Freitas could have given Time Kaine a challenge in the general (It still would have been difficult), but I think there will be a large number of Republicans voting somewhere else (or not at all).  It'll be interesting to see how Matt Waters (The Libertarian) does in this race.

I would have been very interested in this race if Freitas won the nomination, however I'm not at all interested.  I won't support either major party candidate.  If I was voting I'd probably go with Waters.

Well, in Iowa its a battle between Gov. Reynolds and Fred Hubble that seems to be the closest race we have out here. Of course there are closer races such as in IA-1 with Abby Finkenauer, as well as in IA-3 over in East Iowa. However, I'm in IA-4. Steve King's district. J.D. Scholten is the Dem. nominee and could surprise some people, I think. He put up strong numbers for a Democrat over here, and if he can win the 25% of the Republican primary that voted against King, he could stand a chance to be a dark horse. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

×