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TheMiddlePolitical

2018 PA Gubernatorial Eleciton

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Just now, Patine said:

National Organization for Recreational Marijuana Legalization. It's a lobby group.

Oh! Okay got it I'll add it

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I have decided to only do area bonuses I found the add all 1,2,3 -1,2,3 was useless. Therfore I will do local area bonuses and takeaways (Laureal,suburban,urban) which will be more significant.

So far i have all endorsers (except the US reps) done,need to do some polling tweaks,attributes,pics,names,surrogates,veeps are basic right now,i will release a beta soon ,debates are in,interviewers i didn't change,and views arent done at all,however county views are,all county views are right,except Erie,Phili,and Allegheny (I need to do suburbs) and candidates views 

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2 hours ago, TheMiddlePolitical said:

I have decided to only do area bonuses I found the add all 1,2,3 -1,2,3 was useless. Therfore I will do local area bonuses and takeaways (Laureal,suburban,urban) which will be more significant.

So far i have all endorsers (except the US reps) done,need to do some polling tweaks,attributes,pics,names,surrogates,veeps are basic right now,i will release a beta soon ,debates are in,interviewers i didn't change,and views arent done at all,however county views are,all county views are right,except Erie,Phili,and Allegheny (I need to do suburbs) and candidates views 

Do you have the whole outgoing Pennsylvania State Legislature as endorsers?

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14 hours ago, Patine said:

Do you have the whole outgoing Pennsylvania State Legislature as endorsers?

No...If someone wants to help add them sure,but other wise just the Congressmen and Congresswomen.

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Overall I say I am about 80% completely finished with this.

 

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@admin_270 I think my full version will be deserving of being an official campaign,also I will be doing a Senate campaign for PA that I think will be.

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I'm testing adding all current canididates as veeps,I think it'd make the process more interesting

EXCEPT ones who would make no sense or would be impossible (Tom Ridge,Bob Casey,Tom Wolf,Pat Toomey,Ed Rendell)

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how will primaries be counted? delegates will all be the divided option(PR) and it will be 10 delegates per 1000 people.

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Did all candidates issues,redid some polling. 

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I do plan on doing the LG's will do tn

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4 hours ago, TheMiddlePolitical said:

No...If someone wants to help add them sure,but other wise just the Congressmen and Congresswomen.

But wouldn't every member of the State Legislature logically have a stake in weighing in on whom they wanted to see as the next Governor?

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7 minutes ago, Patine said:

But wouldn't every member of the State Legislature logically have a stake in weighing in on whom they wanted to see as the next Governor?

Yes but adding over 250 state senators and reps is a bit tedious. 

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14 minutes ago, TheMiddlePolitical said:

Yes but adding over 250 state senators and reps is a bit tedious. 

I've found, in my day, making ANY good quality scenario gets a bit tedious at point. Have you seen, in his final going over for his historical Presidential scenarios, vcczar spends several week just announcing he's working on endorsers for each?

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20 hours ago, Patine said:

I've found, in my day, making ANY good quality scenario gets a bit tedious at point. Have you seen, in his final going over for his historical Presidential scenarios, vcczar spends several week just announcing he's working on endorsers for each?

If I want to expand this making of this scenario for 2 or so more weeks,sure I'll add them

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The "Bonus" idea:All candidates will be given certain + or - bonuses. These will be in 3 ways either urban,suburban,or rural. these will be either +5,-5,+3,or -3

The county "blocs"

Urban: 

-Philadelphia

-Alegheney

-Delaware

-Montgomery

Suburban

-Dauhpin

-Centre

-Erie

-Lackawanna

-Monroe

-Lehigh

-Northampton

-Bucks

-Luzerne

-Chester

Rural:

-all others

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@vcczar @Patine I was wondering how either of you think I should do the primaries...Since theres for some reason no primary popular vote option...It seems to be very hard to do this election without it going to a "contested convention"...

 

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I was thinking of having only 1 single primary contest,and whoever wins that wins the primary,I think It'd better reflect PV

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primary delegates:

1 delegate per 1,000 people

over 250 delegates=PR

249 and under=FPP

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On 6/7/2018 at 7:43 PM, TheMiddlePolitical said:

Quick test run GE only I think its a good realistic result :) 

 

Capture.PNG

That result at the county level around Philly is very funky. No way is "the Earth is getting warmer because it's moving toward the Sun" Wagner winning Chester, Montgomery, or Bucks counties. Of course PI can be weird with this stuff but those county results are still very strange. Otherwise looks like a solid scenario with the only changes needing to be made regarding turnout numbers since they are too high. Good job!

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11 hours ago, Somberg said:

That result at the county level around Philly is very funky. No way is "the Earth is getting warmer because it's moving toward the Sun" Wagner winning Chester, Montgomery, or Bucks counties. Of course PI can be weird with this stuff but those county results are still very strange. Otherwise looks like a solid scenario with the only changes needing to be made regarding turnout numbers since they are too high. Good job!

fixed both those the county level result realism,and turnout numbers,thank you!

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Wagner was actually the most centrist out of the 3 republican canidates (and is pretty much overall) except is far right enviormental wacky views. This is probably a worse case scenarios result,but this shows the updated turnout and map.

 

Capture.PNG

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(Chester county went to Toomey by 2 points)

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59 minutes ago, TheMiddlePolitical said:

Wagner was actually the most centrist out of the 3 republican canidates (and is pretty much overall) except is far right enviormental wacky views. This is probably a worse case scenarios result,but this shows the updated turnout and map.

 

Capture.PNG

I'm under the impression that Wagner is as centrist as Trump appeared during the 2016 election, which is to say he only appears centrist because he's populist and not a more standard conservative like Pat Toomey. Toomey also did well there because of his support from gun control groups and figures (Gabby Giffords and Michael Bloomberg both supported him) and the potential for people to have voted for Toomey because of the expectation that Hillary was going to win and that she needed a check on her power. Considering the fact that Chester appears to be shifting toward the Dems long-term and Wagner is aligning himself with Trump I don't imagine he'd do well there. Once again PI can throw up funky results sometimes so if this is one of those cases it's fine but I don't see him doing to well in any of the Philly suburban counties that Hillary won in 2016.

Appreciate the work you are doing on this, though! And yeah this is likely the worst case scenario for Wagner but not out of the realm of possibility.

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19 minutes ago, Somberg said:

I'm under the impression that Wagner is as centrist as Trump appeared during the 2016 election, which is to say he only appears centrist because he's populist and not a more standard conservative like Pat Toomey. Toomey also did well there because of his support from gun control groups and figures (Gabby Giffords and Michael Bloomberg both supported him) and the potential for people to have voted for Toomey because of the expectation that Hillary was going to win and that she needed a check on her power. Considering the fact that Chester appears to be shifting toward the Dems long-term and Wagner is aligning himself with Trump I don't imagine he'd do well there. Once again PI can throw up funky results sometimes so if this is one of those cases it's fine but I don't see him doing to well in any of the Philly suburban counties that Hillary won in 2016.

Appreciate the work you are doing on this, though! And yeah this is likely the worst case scenario for Wagner but not out of the realm of possibility.

Switched chester from republican 52-48 to dem 53-47

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