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RI Democrat

Vote fluctuations in newest Canada version

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Anyway, about the fluctuations - I realize that maybe I tend to harp on this and perhaps nobody else cares, but I did actually track the results in one riding from the Ontario 2018 scenario,  Mississauga-Malton, from 9:00 p.m. onward and here's what I found. The first table shows the total number of votes for each party at the 10-minute intervals when the totals update, and the second table shows the number of votes added at each 10-minute interval (calculated by subtracting the previous totals from the new totals):

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I am by no means an expert on the political geography of this or any other riding, but this seems unlikely in the extreme to me. As we can see, it was a fairly competitive three-way race overall. But for these counts to happen IRL, the polling stations reporting during the 9:20-9:30 and 9:40-9:50 intervals would be from areas where literally no one at all voted for the PCs out of two or three thousand votes total.  Some of the other intervals also showed surprisingly minuscule totals for the Liberals (9:20) and NDP (9:40) as well. I don't know how the game generates these numbers, but I think if we could arrive at a happy medium between this and the much smaller fluctuations from the President Forever 2008 / PM Forever 2011 era, I think it would be a much better and more legitimately interesting and suspenseful portrayal of an election night. As things stand, it doesn't really seem worth paying much attention until the counting is actually finished.

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@RI Democrat,

Thanks for this. The campaigns do not contain sub-riding information on voting patterns. These are random fluctuations in the number of votes, but I agree the algorithm could be tweaked to avoid the sorts of shifts you point out here.

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