Jump to content
270soft Forum
Sign in to follow this  
Sami

Quebec 2018

Recommended Posts

Hi!

2 big elections are coming in Canada this year

First, Ontario in June, the Liberals who are in government are risking to finish 3rd.

Second, Quebec the 1st October

Problem

Which is known with a lot of Canadians @Patine won't disagree I think, is that the Canadians QUICKLY change their votes during election campain

Canada 2015...Quebec 2014...Alberta 1935...Quebec 2007...even Ontario 2014...Alberta 2014...

And currently the race is still hot in Quebec, with 3 major parties

The CAQ which had 15% 2 years ago is now at 35% and would form the next government if I take the last polls.

The PLQ is at 30% (the current government)

And the PQ has lost 10% in 8-10 months and is at 20%.

Soooo, regarding that the Quebecers can quickly cange their mind, I am asking myself when could I start the mod :)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, Sami said:

Hi!

2 big elections are coming in Canada this year

First, Ontario in June, the Liberals who are in government are risking to finish 3rd.

Second, Quebec the 1st October

Problem

Which is known with a lot of Canadians @Patine won't disagree I think, is that the Canadians change QUICKLY their votes during election campain

Canada 2015...Quebec 2014...Alberta 1935...Quebec 2007...even Ontario 2014...Alberta 2014...

And currently the race is still hot in Quebec, with 3 major parties

The CAQ which had 15% 2 years ago is now at 35% and would form the next government if I take the last polls.

The PLQ is at 30% (the current government)

And the PQ has lost 10% in 8-10 months and is at 20%.

Soooo, regarding that the Quebecers can quickly cange their mind, I am asking myself when could I start the mod :)

The last Alberta election was 2015. :P

Also, Canada 1921, 1930, 1935, 1957, 1984, and 1993, Saskatchewan 1944 and 1982, Ontario 1990 (even surprised the winning NDP's in that one), British Columbia 1952, Quebec 1936 and 1976, Alberta 1921 and 1971, Nova Scotia 2009, and Newfoundland 1971 are all good examples of sudden (and sometimes unexpected) changes in Canadian elections as well.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
38 minutes ago, Patine said:

The last Alberta election was 2015. :P

Also, Canada 1921, 1930, 1935, 1957, 1984, and 1993, Saskatchewan 1944 and 1982, Ontario 1990 (even surprised the winning NDP's in that one), British Columbia 1952, Quebec 1936 and 1976, Alberta 1921 and 1971, Nova Scotia 2009, and Newfoundland 1971 are all good examples of sudden (and sometimes unexpected) changes in Canadian elections as well.

Yes :D

I was so shocked after the 2014 Quebec election that after it I was sure that Mulcair would completely crush at a moment of the Canadian campain

And between September 2015 and the 19th October he loosed almost 15 to 17% nationally.

And for Quebec the PQ has already been at 19% in October 2011 and 32% in July-August 2012...at the same period that the CAQ was at 39% then 27%!

Even if in Quebec and Ontario people seem willing another government right now.

Sooo....I will maybe wait August 2018 ^^

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Is there any consensus on what underlies the seeming volatility in Canada? Do voters just pay more attention to the campaigns? Or are they more attuned to strategic voting with the focus more on defeating a certain party than on who replaces them? It sounded to me like the Liberals won in 2015 partly because they'd won the preliminary "which one of us can actually beat Harper" contest with the NDP and then centre-left votes started flocking to their camp. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, RI Democrat said:

Is there any consensus on what underlies the seeming volatility in Canada? Do voters just pay more attention to the campaigns? Or are they more attuned to strategic voting with the focus more on defeating a certain party than on who replaces them? It sounded to me like the Liberals won in 2015 partly because they'd won the preliminary "which one of us can actually beat Harper" contest with the NDP and then centre-left votes started flocking to their camp. 

Your second point is correct!

They vote against

But the problem is that they can flop really late:

Opinion Polling during the 2015 Canadian Federal Election.svg

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, RI Democrat said:

Is there any consensus on what underlies the seeming volatility in Canada? Do voters just pay more attention to the campaigns? Or are they more attuned to strategic voting with the focus more on defeating a certain party than on who replaces them? It sounded to me like the Liberals won in 2015 partly because they'd won the preliminary "which one of us can actually beat Harper" contest with the NDP and then centre-left votes started flocking to their camp. 

 

34 minutes ago, Sami said:

Your second point is correct!

They vote against

But the problem is that they can flop really late:

Opinion Polling during the 2015 Canadian Federal Election.svg

 

I believe Canadian voters also have a greater likelihood of being less forgiving of a governing party that disappoints us, even one we'd normally support ideologically or been supporting for years, and want to have a much greater chance of punishing it in the polls, then say, Americans or Britons tend to be...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Patine said:

 

I believe Canadian voters also have a greater likelihood of being less forgiving of a governing party that disappoints us, even one we'd normally support ideologically or been supporting for years, and want to have a much greater chance of punishing it in the polls, then say, Americans or Britons tend to be...

The PCs in 1993 and the B.C. NDP in 2001 being Exhibits A and B?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, RI Democrat said:

The PCs in 1993 and the B.C. NDP in 2001 being Exhibits A and B?

And definitely the PC's in Alberta in 2015. Prentice single-handedly led to the sinking of a ship that had sailed strong for decades straight - since 1971...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 5/4/2018 at 5:07 PM, Patine said:

And definitely the PC's in Alberta in 2015. Prentice single-handedly led to the sinking of a ship that had sailed strong for decades straight - since 1971...

Good point. Do you think the UCP will become another four-decades-long Alberta dynasty now?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, RI Democrat said:

Good point. Do you think the UCP will become another four-decades-long Alberta dynasty now?

It's quite possible, unless they get an atrocious economy they get blamed for, a huge party-wide scandal, or a real bungler of a leader going into one of their elections...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Mhmmm the race could be interesting

The PQ takes back points, 22%

The LPQ is falling at 26%, people hate the Premier Phillipe Couillard

The CAQ is still leading at 35%

QS 10%.

For those who know the Canadian policy

The Parti Québécois has presented a candidate in Maskinongé: Muguette Paillé!

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Sami said:

Mhmmm the race could be interesting

The PQ takes back points, 22%

The LPQ is falling at 26%, people hate the Premier Phillipe Couillard

The CAQ is still leading at 35%

QS 10%.

For those who know the Canadian policy

The Parti Québécois has presented a candidate in Maskinongé: Muguette Paillé!

 

Is anyone making a scenario for the 2018 Québec election?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, lolandrewlmao said:

Is anyone making a scenario for the 2018 Québec election?

I do as soon as all candidates are in ballot and that we know when Couillard goes in election

The Quebecers can quickly change their mind untill now, even more about the CAQ

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, Sami said:

Mhmmm the race could be interesting

The PQ takes back points, 22%

The LPQ is falling at 26%, people hate the Premier Phillipe Couillard

The CAQ is still leading at 35%

QS 10%.

For those who know the Canadian policy

The Parti Québécois has presented a candidate in Maskinongé: Muguette Paillé!

 

Does the PQ EVER actually leave a constituency uncontested in a Quebec general election?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, Patine said:

Does the PQ EVER actually leave a constituency uncontested in a Quebec general election?

In 2014 they did but I cheat

You know there was the famous Charta controversy and the PQ is really laic while the LPQ is quite "close of communities" and so against too much laicity.

And 1 of the Liberals MPs, Fatima Houda Peppin of La Pinière challenged Couillard because she supported the project of huge laicisation of the Parti Québécois.

This project was quite popular and the PQ launched the election on this topic but changed when Pierre Karl Peladeau came, and it created the historic defeat.

So Couillard fired Fatima and the PQ withdrew their candidate to support her as independent.

Finally the Liberal candidate won, Gaëtan Barette!

But sometimes it happens that parties don't challenge leaders in by-election

In 1996 the Liberals did not put someone against Lucien Bouchard when he replaced Jacques Parizeau as Premier of Quebec

Same for Pauline Marois when she returned in her constituency of Charlevoix-Cote de Beaupré in 2007 ahead of the next general election (once she became Leader of the Parti Québécois).

And for Philippe Couillard it's the same, when he returned to become chief of the Liberal Party of Quebec the Parti Québécois did not present any candidate in a by election in 2013 in Outremont.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, Sami said:

In 2014 they did but I cheat

You know there was the famous Charta controversy and the PQ is really laic while the LPQ is quite "close of communities" and so against too much laicity.

And 1 of the Liberals MPs, Fatima Houda Peppin of La Pinière challenged Couillard because she supported the project of huge laicisation of the Parti Québécois.

This project was quite popular and the PQ launched the election on this topic but changed when Pierre Karl Peladeau came, and it created the historic defeat.

So Couillard fired Fatima and the PQ withdrew their candidate to support her as independent.

Finally the Liberal candidate won, Gaëtan Barette!

But sometimes it happens that parties don't challenge leaders in by-election

In 1996 the Liberals did not put someone against Lucien Bouchard when he replaced Jacques Parizeau as Premier of Quebec

Same for Pauline Marois when she returned in her constituency of Charlevoix-Cote de Beaupré in 2007 ahead of the next general election (once she became Leader of the Parti Québécois).

And for Philippe Couillard it's the same, when he returned to become chief of the Liberal Party of Quebec the Parti Québécois did not present any candidate in a by election in 2013 in Outremont.

 

I apologize. It's probably a mistranslation, but what does "laicisation" mean?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
46 minutes ago, Patine said:

I apologize. It's probably a mistranslation, but what does "laicisation" mean?

laicization sorry! I'm too accustomed to have same words in both languages (the worst for us is that develop is developpe and language is langage, often I can do mistakes in french due to it ^^)

Secularization if you prefer :)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  

×