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Edouard

Quebec 2018

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Hi!

2 big elections are coming in Canada this year

First, Ontario in June, the Liberals who are in government are risking to finish 3rd.

Second, Quebec the 1st October

Problem

Which is known with a lot of Canadians @Patine won't disagree I think, is that the Canadians QUICKLY change their votes during election campain

Canada 2015...Quebec 2014...Alberta 1935...Quebec 2007...even Ontario 2014...Alberta 2014...

And currently the race is still hot in Quebec, with 3 major parties

The CAQ which had 15% 2 years ago is now at 35% and would form the next government if I take the last polls.

The PLQ is at 30% (the current government)

And the PQ has lost 10% in 8-10 months and is at 20%.

Soooo, regarding that the Quebecers can quickly cange their mind, I am asking myself when could I start the mod :)

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17 minutes ago, Sami said:

Hi!

2 big elections are coming in Canada this year

First, Ontario in June, the Liberals who are in government are risking to finish 3rd.

Second, Quebec the 1st October

Problem

Which is known with a lot of Canadians @Patine won't disagree I think, is that the Canadians change QUICKLY their votes during election campain

Canada 2015...Quebec 2014...Alberta 1935...Quebec 2007...even Ontario 2014...Alberta 2014...

And currently the race is still hot in Quebec, with 3 major parties

The CAQ which had 15% 2 years ago is now at 35% and would form the next government if I take the last polls.

The PLQ is at 30% (the current government)

And the PQ has lost 10% in 8-10 months and is at 20%.

Soooo, regarding that the Quebecers can quickly cange their mind, I am asking myself when could I start the mod :)

The last Alberta election was 2015. :P

Also, Canada 1921, 1930, 1935, 1957, 1984, and 1993, Saskatchewan 1944 and 1982, Ontario 1990 (even surprised the winning NDP's in that one), British Columbia 1952, Quebec 1936 and 1976, Alberta 1921 and 1971, Nova Scotia 2009, and Newfoundland 1971 are all good examples of sudden (and sometimes unexpected) changes in Canadian elections as well.

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38 minutes ago, Patine said:

The last Alberta election was 2015. :P

Also, Canada 1921, 1930, 1935, 1957, 1984, and 1993, Saskatchewan 1944 and 1982, Ontario 1990 (even surprised the winning NDP's in that one), British Columbia 1952, Quebec 1936 and 1976, Alberta 1921 and 1971, Nova Scotia 2009, and Newfoundland 1971 are all good examples of sudden (and sometimes unexpected) changes in Canadian elections as well.

Yes :D

I was so shocked after the 2014 Quebec election that after it I was sure that Mulcair would completely crush at a moment of the Canadian campain

And between September 2015 and the 19th October he loosed almost 15 to 17% nationally.

And for Quebec the PQ has already been at 19% in October 2011 and 32% in July-August 2012...at the same period that the CAQ was at 39% then 27%!

Even if in Quebec and Ontario people seem willing another government right now.

Sooo....I will maybe wait August 2018 ^^

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Is there any consensus on what underlies the seeming volatility in Canada? Do voters just pay more attention to the campaigns? Or are they more attuned to strategic voting with the focus more on defeating a certain party than on who replaces them? It sounded to me like the Liberals won in 2015 partly because they'd won the preliminary "which one of us can actually beat Harper" contest with the NDP and then centre-left votes started flocking to their camp. 

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1 hour ago, RI Democrat said:

Is there any consensus on what underlies the seeming volatility in Canada? Do voters just pay more attention to the campaigns? Or are they more attuned to strategic voting with the focus more on defeating a certain party than on who replaces them? It sounded to me like the Liberals won in 2015 partly because they'd won the preliminary "which one of us can actually beat Harper" contest with the NDP and then centre-left votes started flocking to their camp. 

Your second point is correct!

They vote against

But the problem is that they can flop really late:

Opinion Polling during the 2015 Canadian Federal Election.svg

 

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1 hour ago, RI Democrat said:

Is there any consensus on what underlies the seeming volatility in Canada? Do voters just pay more attention to the campaigns? Or are they more attuned to strategic voting with the focus more on defeating a certain party than on who replaces them? It sounded to me like the Liberals won in 2015 partly because they'd won the preliminary "which one of us can actually beat Harper" contest with the NDP and then centre-left votes started flocking to their camp. 

 

34 minutes ago, Sami said:

Your second point is correct!

They vote against

But the problem is that they can flop really late:

Opinion Polling during the 2015 Canadian Federal Election.svg

 

I believe Canadian voters also have a greater likelihood of being less forgiving of a governing party that disappoints us, even one we'd normally support ideologically or been supporting for years, and want to have a much greater chance of punishing it in the polls, then say, Americans or Britons tend to be...

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1 hour ago, Patine said:

 

I believe Canadian voters also have a greater likelihood of being less forgiving of a governing party that disappoints us, even one we'd normally support ideologically or been supporting for years, and want to have a much greater chance of punishing it in the polls, then say, Americans or Britons tend to be...

The PCs in 1993 and the B.C. NDP in 2001 being Exhibits A and B?

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6 minutes ago, RI Democrat said:

The PCs in 1993 and the B.C. NDP in 2001 being Exhibits A and B?

And definitely the PC's in Alberta in 2015. Prentice single-handedly led to the sinking of a ship that had sailed strong for decades straight - since 1971...

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On 5/4/2018 at 5:07 PM, Patine said:

And definitely the PC's in Alberta in 2015. Prentice single-handedly led to the sinking of a ship that had sailed strong for decades straight - since 1971...

Good point. Do you think the UCP will become another four-decades-long Alberta dynasty now?

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3 hours ago, RI Democrat said:

Good point. Do you think the UCP will become another four-decades-long Alberta dynasty now?

It's quite possible, unless they get an atrocious economy they get blamed for, a huge party-wide scandal, or a real bungler of a leader going into one of their elections...

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Mhmmm the race could be interesting

The PQ takes back points, 22%

The LPQ is falling at 26%, people hate the Premier Phillipe Couillard

The CAQ is still leading at 35%

QS 10%.

For those who know the Canadian policy

The Parti Québécois has presented a candidate in Maskinongé: Muguette Paillé!

 

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1 hour ago, Sami said:

Mhmmm the race could be interesting

The PQ takes back points, 22%

The LPQ is falling at 26%, people hate the Premier Phillipe Couillard

The CAQ is still leading at 35%

QS 10%.

For those who know the Canadian policy

The Parti Québécois has presented a candidate in Maskinongé: Muguette Paillé!

 

Is anyone making a scenario for the 2018 Québec election?

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12 minutes ago, lolandrewlmao said:

Is anyone making a scenario for the 2018 Québec election?

I do as soon as all candidates are in ballot and that we know when Couillard goes in election

The Quebecers can quickly change their mind untill now, even more about the CAQ

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4 hours ago, Sami said:

Mhmmm the race could be interesting

The PQ takes back points, 22%

The LPQ is falling at 26%, people hate the Premier Phillipe Couillard

The CAQ is still leading at 35%

QS 10%.

For those who know the Canadian policy

The Parti Québécois has presented a candidate in Maskinongé: Muguette Paillé!

 

Does the PQ EVER actually leave a constituency uncontested in a Quebec general election?

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15 minutes ago, Patine said:

Does the PQ EVER actually leave a constituency uncontested in a Quebec general election?

In 2014 they did but I cheat

You know there was the famous Charta controversy and the PQ is really laic while the LPQ is quite "close of communities" and so against too much laicity.

And 1 of the Liberals MPs, Fatima Houda Peppin of La Pinière challenged Couillard because she supported the project of huge laicisation of the Parti Québécois.

This project was quite popular and the PQ launched the election on this topic but changed when Pierre Karl Peladeau came, and it created the historic defeat.

So Couillard fired Fatima and the PQ withdrew their candidate to support her as independent.

Finally the Liberal candidate won, Gaëtan Barette!

But sometimes it happens that parties don't challenge leaders in by-election

In 1996 the Liberals did not put someone against Lucien Bouchard when he replaced Jacques Parizeau as Premier of Quebec

Same for Pauline Marois when she returned in her constituency of Charlevoix-Cote de Beaupré in 2007 ahead of the next general election (once she became Leader of the Parti Québécois).

And for Philippe Couillard it's the same, when he returned to become chief of the Liberal Party of Quebec the Parti Québécois did not present any candidate in a by election in 2013 in Outremont.

 

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8 minutes ago, Sami said:

In 2014 they did but I cheat

You know there was the famous Charta controversy and the PQ is really laic while the LPQ is quite "close of communities" and so against too much laicity.

And 1 of the Liberals MPs, Fatima Houda Peppin of La Pinière challenged Couillard because she supported the project of huge laicisation of the Parti Québécois.

This project was quite popular and the PQ launched the election on this topic but changed when Pierre Karl Peladeau came, and it created the historic defeat.

So Couillard fired Fatima and the PQ withdrew their candidate to support her as independent.

Finally the Liberal candidate won, Gaëtan Barette!

But sometimes it happens that parties don't challenge leaders in by-election

In 1996 the Liberals did not put someone against Lucien Bouchard when he replaced Jacques Parizeau as Premier of Quebec

Same for Pauline Marois when she returned in her constituency of Charlevoix-Cote de Beaupré in 2007 ahead of the next general election (once she became Leader of the Parti Québécois).

And for Philippe Couillard it's the same, when he returned to become chief of the Liberal Party of Quebec the Parti Québécois did not present any candidate in a by election in 2013 in Outremont.

 

I apologize. It's probably a mistranslation, but what does "laicisation" mean?

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46 minutes ago, Patine said:

I apologize. It's probably a mistranslation, but what does "laicisation" mean?

laicization sorry! I'm too accustomed to have same words in both languages (the worst for us is that develop is developpe and language is langage, often I can do mistakes in french due to it ^^)

Secularization if you prefer :)

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I will begin to work on!

Problem is : The Parti Québécois (current official opposition, sovereignist party) seems too low for me.

And it could change as soon as the election will begin after the holidays...

Currently a poll is circulating and ask if Pierre Karl Peladeau would not be better than Jean François Lisée as head of the Official opposition.

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Elections have been called in Quebec

23rd August 1st October.

But parties stay low to put their candidacies.

PLQ: 100 ridings on 125 have candidates

CAQ: 100 ridings on 125

PQ: 80 ridings on 125

QS: 117 ridings on 125.

PCQ (Conservatives of Quebec): almost 80 they plan to reach 125.

NPDQ (first appearance of the NPD in Quebec provincial election) some dozens.

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I officially announce that I will start the Quebec 2018 mod as soon as the next poll is published.

Leger Marketing is doing a poll.

I keep you informed!

A lot of things changed since the last 4 years.

Here is the last Quebec 125 according to last polls

This election could end bipartism and create a lot of 3 to 4 multiplayers races in many seats.

2018-08-15-vote.png

image.thumb.png.472bf76d2436b595d22d894c58cb38e1.png

Currently the Parti Québécois which is the official opposition would only keep Gaspesia and North Coast, the whole clear blue you see is Coalition Avenir Quebec which currently is the 3rd party in the National Assembly.

Just look at the seat of Jean François Lisée the ruler of the opposition...

image.thumb.png.da5f2d84937de5c23cae257aa62aaa04.png

Couillard the Premier of Quebec is also in difficulty

image.thumb.png.3b6b231b600e1451c5507102f2f5e8e0.png

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Okay I have a problem.

CAQ 36%
PLQ 30%

PQ 18%

QS 10%

UNDECIDED VOTERS 45%!!!!

CERTAIN TO THEIR CHOICE 49%!

How can I code an election with so many undecided :(?

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Available leaders for each parties:

PLQ: Philippe Couillard

PQ: Jean François Lisée and Véronique Hivon

CAQ: François Legault

QS: Manon Massé and Gabriel Nadeau Dubois

PCQ: Adrien Poulliot

Ind: Ind.

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