Jump to content
270soft Forum
Sign in to follow this  
vcczar

Keys to the Presidency Poll

Lichtman's Predicting the Next President  

13 members have voted

  1. 1. Lichtman has 13 Keys for Predicting the President. If a president or incumbent-party get 5 or more negatives, then they don't win. Which of these will be Correct for Trump in 2020?

    • Republicans will hold a majority in the US House during the 2020 election campaign
    • There is no serious inter-party challenge against Trump during the primaries
    • The incumbent party's candidate will be the sitting president
    • There will be no significant 3rd party or independent campaign
    • The economy is not in a recession during the election campaign
    • Economic growth during Trump's term will have exceeded growth in the previous two terms (8 years)
    • The president will have successfully enacted major changes in national policy
    • There is no sustained social unrest during the 2020 election campaign
    • The administration is untainted by major scandal
    • The administration has suffered no major failure in foreign affairs or military affairs
    • The administration has achieved a major success in foreign affairs or military affairs
    • The president is charismatic or a national hero
    • The challenger--Democratic Nominee--is NOT charismatic or a national hero
  2. 2. Does Trump get 5 or more negatives (didn't check off) on the 13 statements above?

  3. 3. Do you think Lichtman system for predicting the elections is better than other systems? The key system has worked for all election from 1860-2016

    • Yes
    • Possibly, but one election defying his system could cause him to have to recreate his whole system
    • No


Recommended Posts

I just read a book called Predicting the Next President by Allan Lichtman, who has what he thinks is basically a fool-proof method for predicting the president. The keys are in the poll. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

-No serious primary contender

-Trump will be nominee

-No significant indenpendent

-No recession

-No unrest

-Republican Majority

Trump has 7 negatives.#GoodByein2020

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Edited the last 13th Key to say, "NOT"

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I got 5 negatives for Trump, which means the economy needs to get worse or the Democrats need to find a charismatic or national hero

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
28 minutes ago, ThePotatoWalrus said:

Trump has exactly 5 negatives for me

That means he could win the PV or EV but not both, I think. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, vcczar said:

That means he could win the PV or EV but not both, I think. 

@ThePotatoWalrus

Correction. 5 means it is more likely than not that he'll lose, but if he wins, he will win the PV or EV, but not both. This is he had predicted for incumbent Democrats in 2016. 5 negatives. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, vcczar said:

@ThePotatoWalrus

Correction. 5 means it is more likely than not that he'll lose, but if he wins, he will win the PV or EV, but not both. This is he had predicted for incumbent Democrats in 2016. 5 negatives. 

Wouldn't it be possible for both parties to have 5?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, ThePotatoWalrus said:

Wouldn't it be possible for both parties to have 5?

I guess that would mean that one would win the Electoral College, and the other the popular vote. Sound like deja vu?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, ThePotatoWalrus said:

Wouldn't it be possible for both parties to have 5?

No. The keys are directed only to the incumbent party's chances for reelection.  In fact, a 6 negative to 13 negative doesn't mean you will lose by a wider margin. It's more of binary thing: If negatives less than 5 = incumbent wins. If not, challenger wins. But he allows a 5 as allowing a for the incumbent potentially winning either PV or EV

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, vcczar said:

No. The keys are directed only to the incumbent party's chances for reelection.  In fact, a 6 negative to 13 negative doesn't mean you will lose by a wider margin. It's more of binary thing: If negatives less than 5 = incumbent wins. If not, challenger wins. But he allows a 5 as allowing a for the incumbent potentially winning either PV or EV

But in politics, all over the world, such formulas do have surprising failures to predict outcomes, except maybe in retrospect, but, in that case, they recalibrated and fine-tuned to take surprise results into account.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Patine said:

But in politics, all over the world, such formulas do have surprising failures to predict outcomes, except maybe in retrospect, but, in that case, they recalibrated and fine-tuned to take surprise results into account.

He predicted 1984-2016 before the occurred. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Allan_Lichtman

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, Patine said:

But I wonder if he could have predicted such surprises as 1948, had be been around back then, or at least not an infant...

All he's doing is applying the same 13 keys he used for 1984 through 2016 to the past. 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I got 5 negatives for Trump

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
20 minutes ago, Reagan04 said:

I got 5 negatives for Trump

That would mean that he's most likely going to lose, but if he wins, he will win only the EV or PV. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  

×