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Keys to the Presidency Poll

Lichtman's Predicting the Next President  

3 members have voted

  1. 1. Lichtman has 13 Keys for Predicting the President. If a president or incumbent-party get 5 or more negatives, then they don't win. Which of these will be Correct for Trump in 2020?

    • Republicans will hold a majority in the US House during the 2020 election campaign
    • There is no serious inter-party challenge against Trump during the primaries
    • The incumbent party's candidate will be the sitting president
    • There will be no significant 3rd party or independent campaign
    • The economy is not in a recession during the election campaign
    • Economic growth during Trump's term will have exceeded growth in the previous two terms (8 years)
    • The president will have successfully enacted major changes in national policy
    • There is no sustained social unrest during the 2020 election campaign
    • The administration is untainted by major scandal
    • The administration has suffered no major failure in foreign affairs or military affairs
    • The administration has achieved a major success in foreign affairs or military affairs
    • The president is charismatic or a national hero
    • The challenger--Democratic Nominee--is charismatic or a national hero
  2. 2. Does Trump get 5 or more negatives (didn't check off) on the 13 statements above?

  3. 3. Do you think Lichtman system for predicting the elections is better than other systems? The key system has worked for all election from 1860-2016

    • Yes
    • Possibly, but one election defying his system could cause him to have to recreate his whole system
    • No

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I just read a book called Predicting the Next President by Allan Lichtman, who has what he thinks is basically a fool-proof method for predicting the president. The keys are in the poll. 

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