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LegolasRedbard

Canada 2004 (without Alliance/PC meger)

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In a shocking election result, Prime Minister Paul Martin led the Liberals to their worst electoral defeat since 1984. More shocking however, was the rise of the Conservatives from the political dead. From their result in 2000, the Conservatives gained 67 seats, winning 79 seats (compared to their result of 12 in 2000). Despite winning the popular vote, they ended up 9 seats behind the Canadian Alliance. With none of the three parties having a majority, the Liberals considered building a three party coalition with the NDP and Bloc Quebecois, which would leave them fourteen seats short of an overall majority. However, Stephen Harper quickly reached out to the Conservatives. Conservative leader Peter MacKay said in a statement yesterday:

 

"There will be no formal coalition between our party and the Alliance. However, we will support the new government."

 

Stephen Harper will presumably be the leader of this new government, but how long the minority government, short by 67 seats of a majority, will last is yet to become certain

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Something worth noting about these results is how FPTP affects the results. Despite beating the Canadian Alliance by 5.3%, or just under a million votes, the PC's failed to come ahead in terms of vote share. If the election was held under the D'Hont method, the result would be as follows:

 

  • PC (27.93%): 89

  • Liberals (23.29%): 75

  • Alliance (22.56%): 72

  • NDP (13.76%): 44

  • Bloc Quebecois (8.73%): 28

  • Green (3.72%): Not enough votes

  • Others (0.02%): Not enough votes

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19 minutes ago, LegolasRedbard said:

Capture.PNG.b709ce60fe15423e463e52d4077ed5ec.PNG

In a shocking election result, Prime Minister Paul Martin led the Liberals to their worst electoral defeat since 1984. More shocking however, was the rise of the Conservatives from the political dead. From their result in 2000, the Conservatives gained 67 seats, winning 79 seats (compared to their result of 12 in 2000). Despite winning the popular vote, they ended up 9 seats behind the Canadian Alliance. With none of the three parties having a majority, the Liberals considered building a three party coalition with the NDP and Bloc Quebecois, which would leave them fourteen seats short of an overall majority. However, Stephen Harper quickly reached out to the Conservatives. Conservative leader Peter MacKay said in a statement yesterday:

 

"There will be no formal coalition between our party and the Alliance. However, we will support the new government."

 

Stephen Harper will presumably be the leader of this new government, but how long the minority government, short by 67 seats of a majority, will last is yet to become certain

I can't help but to wonder, living in Canada and having been following events at the time, if Harper would have been leader of the CA in 2004 in such an alternate timeline. I recall a large number of late round shift votes in the first CPC leadership convention from PC members went to Harper after Flaherty and McKay (the major candidates from the original PC's) dropped out and backed Harper, and he handily beat Day, Prentice, someone I'm forgetting, and a few minor candidates. But both this scenario, and a much older take on this idea for PM4E by a user named @matvail2002 seemed to assume Harper would just became leader by default anyways. Just a thought there.

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