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lok1999

Victoria, Australia - 2018

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Being a Victorian myself, and the feeling that there is a lack of Australian scenarios  (Thanks lack of Preferential voting...Please hurry up with that), I thought that I'd make up a scenario for the upcoming State election, being held on November 24th.

So far, all I've got done is the map and the usability of the regions on the map. I am currently working on the population and voter data of the districts themselves, and the images for each of the parties, their leaders, and independent candidates. This will be a work in progress over the entirety of the year, as we are so far out, we know very little of who is running, except in my own district, which currently already has 3 candidates (incumbent Independent, the Liberal party, and the National Party).

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7 hours ago, lok1999 said:

Being a Victorian myself, and the feeling that there is a lack of Australian scenarios  (Thanks lack of Preferential voting...Please hurry up with that), I thought that I'd make up a scenario for the upcoming State election, being held on November 24th.

So far, all I've got done is the map and the usability of the regions on the map. I am currently working on the population and voter data of the districts themselves, and the images for each of the parties, their leaders, and independent candidates. This will be a work in progress over the entirety of the year, as we are so far out, we know very little of who is running, except in my own district, which currently already has 3 candidates (incumbent Independent, the Liberal party, and the National Party).

This looks like a neat idea, though it's unlikely 2018 will be very interesting election in Victoria. In fact, there aren't very many such elections, though there were an inordinately large amount of votes in 1992 and 1996 for the Natural Law Party (though no seats) - probably as a protest vote, like they were in many other nations and polities they ran (including here in Canada and even specifically Alberta), but a protest vote probably compounded by the existence of mandatory voting. I must admit that Preferential voting is an electoral institutional I dislike greatly, personally, as it has the opposite effect of the secondary vote in MPP - in that Australian Preferential voting all the more solidifies and reinforces the power of a two-party (or coalition and party) grip on power over all other parties, thus serving, in my mind, a detestable function. Though I may gleefully do Victoria elections of 1902 to 1950 to avoid the Preferential system, as I tend to live historical elections anyways, many posters on these forums seem to insist on doing or playing the most recent or upcoming for a given polity. Nonetheless, tying up this rant, I do wish you well with this regardless, and I don't personally blame you for my beefs with the Australian electoral system.

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Good to see some other Australians on here, I'd love to play a Victoria 2018 scenario. The Green insurgency seems to be the most interesting factor there, and whether they can snatch up enough Labor seats around Melbourne to force a balance of power on an otherwise mildly successful first-term government. 

I expect Daniel Andrews to win a second term, but the Liberals have a massive spending warchest and are deploying sophisticated new voter-tracking software which has been helping Liberals win in Australia lately. Not sure exactly how to implement that into a scenario, I suppose it would be a significant boost in the Liberal leader's "Ground", "Research" and "Fundraising" ratings, and exceptionally high starting funds.

We've also seen some interesting results which could inform your vote settings for that Green-leaning cluster of inner-city seats (Melbourne, Northcote, Richmond, Prahran, Brunswick). The 2017 Northcote by-election swung heavily Green, with the party picking up a third lower house seat for the first time. Then we have the 2018 Batman by-election (Just happened this weekend) which ended in a bit of an anticlimactic "standoff", Greens making gains in working class and migrant areas north of the Bell St divide while Labor reclaimed a greater number of voters in Green strongholds at the south end of the seat, resulting in an upset Labor retain.

Those five seats, particularly Richmond and Brunswick will be hotly contested and could determine how viable it is for Labor to continue to govern without securing a longer-term alliance with the Greens. Or, to look at it another way, how viable the Greens are as an electoral force in Australia's Houses of Government.

I look forward to seeing how you go, and I hope we get preferential voting in the game soon as I'd love to put together a scenario for the 2018 SA election (Just finished),  and longer term the 2010, 2014 and 2018 elections in Tasmania, where I live.

Best of luck.

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On ‎2018‎-‎03‎-‎07 at 1:21 AM, lok1999 said:

Being a Victorian myself, and the feeling that there is a lack of Australian scenarios  (Thanks lack of Preferential voting...Please hurry up with that), I thought that I'd make up a scenario for the upcoming State election, being held on November 24th.

So far, all I've got done is the map and the usability of the regions on the map. I am currently working on the population and voter data of the districts themselves, and the images for each of the parties, their leaders, and independent candidates. This will be a work in progress over the entirety of the year, as we are so far out, we know very little of who is running, except in my own district, which currently already has 3 candidates (incumbent Independent, the Liberal party, and the National Party).

How many of the 12 political parties outside the main four (Liberal, Labour, National, and Green) and Independents, at least judging by the number of said parties who ran in 2014, as I can't seem to find a final and definite list of such parties registered and intending to run this year, will you be including in this scenario?

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We won't know the full party list until early November, when nominations close, but I will be including all major parties and probably a few of the bigger minors, as well as the major independent candidates as separate.

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On 5/13/2018 at 4:28 AM, Gov.George Wallace said:

Victorian Socialists vs the Greens in inner Melbourne will be interesting. 

They didn't have any candidates in Inner Melbourne in 2014, and I don't expect that to change this year.

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