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MysteryKnight

2020 Election playthrough

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I'm playing the newly updated 2020 scenario from @vcczar and I'll post results as I go along here

 

I'm playing as Jeff Merkley and only using candidates who I believe would run. Here's the polling as of January 1, 2020 (in parenthesis is where they started October 1st):

Republicans:

Trump: 41.5% (42.8%)

Kasich: 17.2% (11.7%)

Flake: 8% (1.2%)

Johnson: 7.2% (4.2%)

 

Democrats

Steyer: 16.2% (8%)

Booker: 14.1% (17.6%)

McAuliffe: 11.8% (6.8%)

Gillibrand: 11.5% (5.8%)

Kennedy III: 11.3% (3.1%)

Kerry: 10.4% (8%)

Merkley: 8% (4.2%)

O'Malley: 5.7% (2.9%)

Castro: 5.2% (2.8%)

Delaney: 2.6% (0.4%)

 

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3 hours ago, MysteryKnight said:

I'm playing the newly updated 2020 scenario from @vcczar and I'll post results as I go along here

 

I'm playing as Jeff Merkley and only using candidates who I believe would run. Here's the polling as of January 1, 2020 (in parenthesis is where they started October 1st):

Republicans:

Trump: 41.5% (42.8%)

Kasich: 17.2% (11.7%)

Flake: 8% (1.2%)

Johnson: 7.2% (4.2%)

 

Democrats

Steyer: 16.2% (8%)

Booker: 14.1% (17.6%)

McAuliffe: 11.8% (6.8%)

Gillibrand: 11.5% (5.8%)

Kennedy III: 11.3% (3.1%)

Kerry: 10.4% (8%)

Merkley: 8% (4.2%)

O'Malley: 5.7% (2.9%)

Castro: 5.2% (2.8%)

Delaney: 2.6% (0.4%)

 

Thanks! I look forward to more results!

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Iowa Caucus 

D: Kennedy III wins with 25.2% of the vote

R: Jeff Flake wins with 50% of the vote

New Hampshire

D: John Kerry wins with 22.5% of the vote

R: Jeff Flake wins with 70.7% of the vote

Nevada

D: Delaney and Kennedy III both get 15 delegates (18.3% and 18.1% respectively)

R:  Trump wins with 64.7% of the vote

South Carolina

D: Kennedy III wins with 31.7%

R: John Kasich wins with 38.6%

 

National polling for March 1, 2020

Republicans:

Trump: 47.3%

Kasich: 23.4%

Flake: 7.6%

Johnson: 5.7%

 

Democrats

Booker: 14.4%

Steyer: 13.4%

Kennedy III: 12.3% 

Kerry: 11%

McAuliffe: 10.9%

Gillibrand: 10.7%

Merkley: 8.5%

O'Malley: 6.4%

Castro: 4.7%

Delaney: 4.2%

 

Delegate count:

Kennedy III: 79

Delaney: 61

Kerry: 45

 

Kasich: 67

Flake: 36

Trump: 22

Johnson: 8

 

There also seems to be a strange glitch where for one week the polling numbers are wild numbers, but then adjusts back to normal the next week. It has only happened with the Democrats. as you can see, Merkley was actually polling in the negatives. It does not effect the state polls though

glitch.png

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14 minutes ago, MysteryKnight said:

Iowa Caucus 

D: Kennedy III wins with 25.2% of the vote

R: Jeff Flake wins with 50% of the vote

New Hampshire

D: John Kerry wins with 22.5% of the vote

R: Jeff Flake wins with 70.7% of the vote

Nevada

D: Delaney and Kennedy III both get 15 delegates (18.3% and 18.1% respectively)

R:  Trump wins with 64.7% of the vote

South Carolina

D: Kennedy III wins with 31.7%

R: John Kasich wins with 38.6%

 

National polling for March 1, 2020

Republicans:

Trump: 47.3%

Kasich: 23.4%

Flake: 7.6%

Johnson: 5.7%

 

Democrats

Booker: 14.4%

Steyer: 13.4%

Kennedy III: 12.3% 

Kerry: 11%

McAuliffe: 10.9%

Gillibrand: 10.7%

Merkley: 8.5%

O'Malley: 6.4%

Castro: 4.7%

Delaney: 4.2%

 

Delegate count:

Kennedy III: 79

Delaney: 61

Kerry: 45

 

Kasich: 67

Flake: 36

Trump: 22

Johnson: 8

 

There also seems to be a strange glitch where for one week the polling numbers are wild numbers, but then adjusts back to normal the next week. It has only happened with the Democrats. as you can see, Merkley was actually polling in the negatives. It does not effect the state polls though

glitch.png

The glitch is odd. I don't know what accounts for that. 

I wish candidates dropped out before and just after Iowa. It seems like everyone stays in for way too long. 

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To what extent have you played with the 'Ideologue' setting? Is it just not coded to favor dropping out around Iowa? That might be a nice feature to implement.

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5 hours ago, vcczar said:

The glitch is odd. I don't know what accounts for that. 

I wish candidates dropped out before and just after Iowa. It seems like everyone stays in for way too long. 

It certainly doesn't help that the lowest polling candidates always end up campaigning nonstop in the early states and actually end up doing well

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Super Tuesday

Republicans:

Trump wins: Alabama, Wyoming, California, Alaska,

Kasich wins: Tennessee, Texas, Georgia, Massachusetts 

Johnson wins: Minnesota

Flake: Oklahoma, Vermont, Virginia


Democrats:

McAuliffe wins: Alabama, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Virginia

Steyer: California, Tennessee

Booker: Colorado, Vermont,

Gillibrand: Georgia

Kennedy III: Massachusetts, Minnesota

Kerry: Texas

 

Steyer currently leads by 266 delegates for democrats with Kennedy III in 2nd. For republicans, Trump has a lead of 110 delegates over Kasich

 

One day after Super Tuesday, Johnson has dropped out of the race, winning just 54 delegates and 7.6% of the votes

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11 hours ago, MysteryKnight said:

Super Tuesday

Republicans:

Trump wins: Alabama, Wyoming, California, Alaska,

Kasich wins: Tennessee, Texas, Georgia, Massachusetts 

Johnson wins: Minnesota

Flake: Oklahoma, Vermont, Virginia


Democrats:

McAuliffe wins: Alabama, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Virginia

Steyer: California, Tennessee

Booker: Colorado, Vermont,

Gillibrand: Georgia

Kennedy III: Massachusetts, Minnesota

Kerry: Texas

 

Steyer currently leads by 266 delegates for democrats with Kennedy III in 2nd. For republicans, Trump has a lead of 110 delegates over Kasich

 

One day after Super Tuesday, Johnson has dropped out of the race, winning just 54 delegates and 7.6% of the votes

Steyer is as impulsive as Trump. I hope he wouldn't become the Democratic nominee. I'd still be forced to vote for him, considering the alternative. 

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R:

Trump wins Kansas, Louisiana, Maine

Flake wins Kentucky

D:

Booker wins Kansas, Louisiana, Nebraska, 

--------------------------

Jeff Flake withdraws from race

---------------------------

R:

Trump wins Guam, Hawaii, Idaho, Michigan, Mississippi, Puerto Rico, U.S Virgin Islands, Washington DC,

D:

Booker wins American Samoa, Michigan, Mississippi, 

McAuliffe wins Democrats Abroad, Maine, 

Kennedy III wins Northern Mariana Islands

 

Steyer still has a lead of 100+ delegates over Booker, Trump has lead of over 300 delegates with Kasich being the only challenger left

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Delaney and Castro withdraw from the race one day before the OH, FL, IL, MO, NC primaries. 

--------------------------

March 17:

Republican results:

Trump wins FL, IL, NC, MO, Northern Mariana Islands, OH

Democrat Results:

Steyer wins FL

Booker wins IL, MO, NC

Merkley wins OH

 

Trump closing in on clinching nomination, Steyer continues to hold decent lead in delegates. However, only holds a 0.2% lead ahead of Booker in national polling

March 20

Gillibrand drops out of race

 

March 21

O'Malley drops out of race and endorses Steyer

 

March 24

Trump wins Arizona and Utah

Booker wins 

Steyer wins Idaho

McAuliffe wins Utah

 

March  28/29

Steyer wins Hawaii

Merkley wins Washington

Kerry wins Alaska

 

Steyer's lead has grown to over 200 delegates. Trump is expected to clinch the nomination in a few weeks.

 

 

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1 hour ago, MysteryKnight said:

Delaney and Castro withdraw from the race one day before the OH, FL, IL, MO, NC primaries. 

--------------------------

March 17:

Republican results:

Trump wins FL, IL, NC, MO, Northern Mariana Islands, OH

Democrat Results:

Steyer wins FL

Booker wins IL, MO, NC

Merkley wins OH

 

Trump closing in on clinching nomination, Steyer continues to hold decent lead in delegates. However, only holds a 0.2% lead ahead of Booker in national polling

March 20

Gillibrand drops out of race

 

March 21

O'Malley drops out of race and endorses Steyer

 

March 24

Trump wins Arizona and Utah

Booker wins 

Steyer wins Idaho

McAuliffe wins Utah

 

March  28/29

Steyer wins Hawaii

Merkley wins Washington

Kerry wins Alaska

 

Steyer's lead has grown to over 200 delegates. Trump is expected to clinch the nomination in a few weeks.

 

 

I hope it isn't Steyer, but I'll take him over Trump. 

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@MysteryKnight Who was Johnson?

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April 4

Trump wins North Dakota

April 8

Trump wins Wisconsin

Merkley wins Wisconsin

April 11

Kasich withdraws from race

McAuliffe wins Wyoming

April 22

Steyer wins New York

Trump wins New York

------------------------

Trump has officially clinched the nomination.

------------------------

April 24

Kennedy III withdraws from nomination

--------------------

April 28

McAuliffe takes Connecticut and Rhode Island

Booker takes Delaware

Kerry takes Maryland and Pennsylvania

 

Kerry appears to have gotten a boost in these states from Kennedy III dropping out

 

National Polling as of April 29

Steyer: 18.3%

Booker: 16.4%

Kerry: 14.3%

McAuliffe: 13.4%

Merkley: 11.4%

 

Steyer now has a lead of over 300 delegates. Kerry is now 2nd in delegates ahead of Booker

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May 12

McAuliffe wins West Virginia

May 19

Merkley wins Oregon

Steyer wins Kentucky

---------------------------

Cory Booker (who was 2nd in polls and 4th in delegates) has dropped out of the race. Booker was leading in polls for upcoming states of NJ, ND, and NM.

--------------------------

May 30

Adam Kokesh is the Libertarian Party nominee and chooses Gray has his VP. 

June 6

McAuliffe wins Puerto Rico

 

National Polling for June 8 (one day before final primaries

Steyer: 19%

Kerry: 14.9%

McAuliffe: 14%

Merkley: 12.9%

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1 hour ago, MysteryKnight said:

May 12

McAuliffe wins West Virginia

May 19

Merkley wins Oregon

Steyer wins Kentucky

---------------------------

Cory Booker (who was 2nd in polls and 4th in delegates) has dropped out of the race. Booker was leading in polls for upcoming states of NJ, ND, and NM.

--------------------------

May 30

Adam Kokesh is the Libertarian Party nominee and chooses Gray has his VP. 

June 6

McAuliffe wins Puerto Rico

 

National Polling for June 8 (one day before final primaries

Steyer: 19%

Kerry: 14.9%

McAuliffe: 14%

Merkley: 12.9%

I guess I'd have to root for Kerry, since it looks like Merkley can't win. Steyer is my last choice. 

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June 10

Kerry wins Montana, North Dakota, 

Steyer wins New Jersey, New Mexico, South Dakota

 

With DC being the only primary left, it appears everyone unleashed every single ad known to man, because the ad power for Kerry and McAuliffe is well over 100 in DC, thus giving them a momentum of +20 (Steyer is at +30)

June 17

Kerry wins DC

 

Primaries are over. Trump will be the republican nominee but things are still well undecided for the democrats. Here are the results (note that Delaney had 77 delegates and Gillibrand had 53)

 

 

 

dprimery.png

rprime.png

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I bet Steyer loses the nomination at the Convention

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General Election Polling July 1 2020

Democrats: 46.7%

Trump: 41.7%

Kokesh: 0.6%

Stein: 0.4%

 

July 25th

Trump wins Republican Convention and announces that Dwayne Johnson will be his running mate!

 

General Election Polling July 27 2020

Democrats: 45.4%

Trump: 43.1%

Kokesh: 0.6%

Stein: 0.4%

 

July 31st

Democratic Convention

Round 1:

Gillibrand is removed from the running, her 53 delegates go to Jeff Merkley

Round 2:

Delaney is removed from the running, his 77 delegates go to Martin O'Malley

Round 3:

Castro is removed from the running, his 119 delegates go to Joe Kennedy III

Round 4:

O'Malley is removed from the running, his 174 delegates go to Tom Steyer

Round 5:

Kennedy III is removed from the running, his 549 delegates go to John Kerry

 

Here's where that leaves us:

Kerry: 1406

Steyer: 1303

McAuliffe: 805

Booker: 662

Merkley: 589

 

Round 6:

Merkley is removed from the running, his 549 delegates go to John Kerry

Round 7:

Booker is removed from the running, his 662 delegates go to Terry McAuliffe

Round 8:

Steyer is removed from the running, his 1303 delegates go to Terry McAuliffe

 

Terry McAuliffe has been named the democratic nominee and chooses former attorney general Eric Holder as his running mate!

 

Personally, while I wasn't a big fan of any of the leaders, I would have preferred Steyer or Booker than McAuliffe. If this were actually to happen in 2020, it would appear the democrats didn't learn much that people don't want an establishment candidate

 

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August 9th 2020

If the election were held today, Trump would be elected to his second term according to the state polls. National polls have McAuliffe on top. 

2020sofar.png

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A little over two weeks left until the election and it looks like it will be a close one. McAuliffe has a decent lead in the national polling, but many states are very close and could go either way

2weeks.png

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