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Trump Predictions from 538.com Chat


FiveThirtyEight.Com asks its panel what the likelihood of the following happening in Trump's administration:  

23 members have voted

  1. 1. Which of the following 14 possibilities is more likely than not to happen during Trump's presidency?

    • Trump keeps on Trumpin’ and the country remains evenly divided. [Basically, he doesn't change, and his approval rating stays about the same, too.]
    • Trump gradually (or not-so-gradually) enters a death spiral. [Competent advisers flee the administration, supporters leave Trump, approval rating drops]
    • Trump keeps rewriting the political rules and gradually becomes more popular. [Trump's default approach to politics turns out to be a winning one in the long-run]
    • Trump mellows out, slightly. [He learns through trial and error to pick his battles]
    • Trump cedes authority. [Overwhelmed or bored with the presidency, Trump cedes day-to-day control to Pence and the cabinet.]
    • Trump successfully pivots to the populist center (but with plenty of authoritarianism too). [Maintains trade and immigration populist policies, but adds social welfare and infrastructure spending]
    • Trump flails around aimlessly after an unsuccessful attempt to pivot. [Despite firing many advisers, and constantly changing course, he never gets anywhere]
    • Trump is consumed by scandal. [This would involve a scandal that actually causes him to lose support among those that supported him through his previous scandals.]
    • Trump is undermined by a failure to deliver jobs. [This assumes Trump's trade policies create an economic downturn]
    • Trump’s law-and-order agenda is bolstered by an international incident or terrorist attack. [A 9/11-like terrorist attack leads to popular support of Trump nationalism, curtail of civil liberties, Islamaphobia, etc.]
    • Trump plunges America into outright authoritarianism. [Using Bannon's advice to bring government crashing down while Republicans and Democrats are disorganized, and rebuild the system for himself]
    • Resistance to Trump from elsewhere in the government undermines his authority but prompts a constitutional crisis. [The military and federal bureaucracy start refusing to carry out Trump's orders]
    • Trump becomes Governor Schwarzenegger [Trump drops his bully mentality as it gets closer to the 2020 election, veers to the center and recreates himself by dropping his hardline stances]
    • Trump’s button-mashing works because the system really is broken. [Trump's deviation from the status quo ultimately proves good, even if his policies aren't brilliant, since our system isn't working well]
  2. 2. Impeachment question: Who would you rather have as president if Trump commits impeachable offenses?

  3. 3. If my vote was the deciding vote on whether or not Donald Trump was reelected in 2020, I would vote for _________ over Donald Trump to ensure his defeat.

    • Donald Trump -- I would vote for the president's reelection over any of the listed candidates; thus, making him a two-term president and extend his legacy.
    • I'd vote 3rd party or not vote out of principle, even though it means Trump will be reelected. [For the sake of argument, we will say Trump is elected if his opponent doesn't get your vote]
    • Bernie Sanders
    • Hillary Clinton
    • Tim Kaine
    • Cory Booker
    • Elizabeth Warren
    • Al Franken
    • Mark Zuckerberg
    • Sherrod Brown
    • Andrew Cuomo
    • Kamala Harris
    • Kirsten Gillibrand
    • Jerry Brown
    • Joe Biden
    • Chris Murphy
    • Colin Kaepernick
    • Barack Obama (if he could run for a 3rd term)
    • Bill Clinton (if he could run for a 3rd term)
    • Jimmy Carter (running for a second term, four decades after his first term ended, at age 96!)


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I chose Trump for question 2, but ideally Pence would also be involved in whatever impeachable offense is committed, and we'd end up with President Ryan (not that I like him, but I'd prefer him to both Pence and Trump).

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21 minutes ago, jnewt said:

I chose Trump for question 2, but ideally Pence would also be involved in whatever impeachable offense is committed, and we'd end up with President Ryan (not that I like him, but I'd prefer him to both Pence and Trump).

I want this situation to happen as well; however, I don't want it to occur until the last few months of Trump's presidency, so as to limit any danger by Pence or Ryan

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If Trump were to cede power to his cabinet, I believe it would be under a guise of allowing the men to work in background while he takes credit, and claim he did it all himself(much like how he claimed he killed Obamacare due to his recent actions regarding the subsidy funding). Though, I doubt that would happen with the constant back and forth clashes between him and cabinet members like Tillerson. There we see Tillerson trying to pursue a diplomatic approach to North Korea, and Trump is trying to kill those talks. 

Now, I feel that Trump will continue to stay on this path of being plagued with scandals related to the Mueller investigation, and offering his opinion on cultural issues( lightest way of putting it). 

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17 minutes ago, Sunnymentoaddict said:

If Trump were to cede power to his cabinet, I believe it would be under a guise of allowing the men to work in background while he takes credit, and claim he did it all himself(much like how he claimed he killed Obamacare due to his recent actions regarding the subsidy funding). Though, I doubt that would happen with the constant back and forth clashes between him and cabinet members like Tillerson. There we see Tillerson trying to pursue a diplomatic approach to North Korea, and Trump is trying to kill those talks. 

Now, I feel that Trump will continue to stay on this path of being plagued with scandals related to the Mueller investigation, and offering his opinion on cultural issues( lightest way of putting it). 

Like he claims credit for writing all of his business advice books but NOT for going bankrupt four times and leaving the Atlantic City Boardwalk a grim stretch of shuttered casino/hotels?

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I can't respond to this because the last 2 questions are unanswerable, it's so slanted negative. THere is NO impeachable offense. Even if the Dems take the House in 2018, to have enough votes in the Senate would require Dems to win ALL 33 Senate races AND convince 11 Republicans to vote guilty.  I notice that every scenario is either negative or at best neutral.  How about "Trump is able to get his policies through, drain the swamp, build the wall, boost the economy lower the taxes and shrink the government." Ok probably all of that won't happen, but to be fair, why can we have no positive scenarios?  This poll is clearly slanted anti-Trump which is fine, I get it.  But in my opinion I'd like to see questions to be more balanced.  I think it's safe to say that if Trump walked on water,  @vcczar and others would complain that he couldn't swim. There is, at least from the more vocal members in this forum, a severe anti-Trump bias. But Questions #2 and #3 are moot and because they're required I cannot submit the poll.  I can give my answers for #1

-----------

Trump keeps on Trumpin’ and the country remains evenly divided. [Basically, he doesn't change, and his approval rating stays about the same, too.]
Yeah, but remember Trump is not the one doing the dividing.

Trump successfully pivots to the populist center (but with plenty of authoritarianism too). [Maintains trade and immigration populist policies, but adds social welfare and infrastructure spending]
I said yes but I hope this DOESN'T happen.

Trump is consumed by scandal. [This would involve a scandal that actually causes him to lose support among those that supported him through his previous scandals.]
Does that mean all scandals including the fake ones? If so I'd say yes. But Democrats are in NO position to be talking about scandals right now. Physician heal thyself!!

I recently joined (and soon left) a Facebook group called "Fans of President Trump." I left it because it was just a group on blind idol worship where every other question was a version of rate Trump on a scale of A+++++ to A+++++++.  That's the opposite end of the spectrum which is also dangerous, so I left. Let me be clear: I do have some serious concerns about Trump's administration, but it's not nearly the disaster scenario being pictured here. This is why I'm participating in this forum less because I estimate 2/3 of the most active forum members are blindly anti-Trump and the few conservatives on this group aren't as active. If I seem very vocal in my posts, it's because I often feel that there needs to be more balance.  No offense to @NYrepublican @ThePotatoWalrus and @Conservative Elector 2.  I think we have a duty to participate more because Libertarian/Conservative views are severely outnumbered here and in my opinion I think we need more balance. I know I may catch some heat from both "sides" here but I have to speak my mind and I fully accept that. By all means voice your opinions and concerns about Trump and the Republicans. I have them too.  I just ask that we have a little bit of balance here. 

 

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Totally agree with @servo75 (don't forget @Reagan04) this forum is so biased it is unbelievable. (Really? The same people who said Trump had no experience are voting for dumbass Kaepernick, and the people saying a billionaire is out of touch are voting for Cuckerberg) hypocrisy at its finest. Attach the name Trump to anything and these snowflakes will hate it with a fiery passion, praise the President slightly and these guys will cherry-pick an argument against you so hard it's not even funny. At least I can admit when I'm wrong and shift positions ( see, Patriot Act, Gay Marriage, marijuana, military involvement, taxes) but if you expose these people to a different view you get attacked. I'm not even conservative or considerably right-wing, if anything I'm center or center-left, but these people are so unfamiliar with switching sides of an argument that I am attacked as if I was still Far-Right, which is pushing me back to that position.

Just a little rant. My activity on the forum will probably remain at the same level as it has recently been.

Pic somewhat related

8a4.jpg

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Hmm, calling other people snowflakes, Pepe with American flag in the avatar, liking Trump, calling someone a cuck, if it walks like a duck...then again there doesn't seem to be any kind of coherent ideological spectrum nowadays. 

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14 minutes ago, ThePotatoWalrus said:

Totally agree with @servo75 (don't forget @Reagan04) this forum is so biased it is unbelievable. (Really? The same people who said Trump had no experience are voting for dumbass Kaepernick, and the people saying a billionaire is out of touch are voting for Cuckerberg) hypocrisy at its finest. Attach the name Trump to anything and these snowflakes will hate it with a fiery passion, praise the President slightly and these guys will cherry-pick an argument against you so hard it's not even funny. At least I can admit when I'm wrong and shift positions ( see, Patriot Act, Gay Marriage, marijuana, military involvement, taxes) but if you expose these people to a different view you get attacked. I'm not even conservative or considerably right-wing, if anything I'm center or center-left, but these people are so unfamiliar with switching sides of an argument that I am attacked as if I was still Far-Right, which is pushing me back to that position.

Just a little rant. My activity on the forum will probably remain at the same level as it has recently been.

Pic somewhat related

8a4.jpg

I'm not even sure who Kaepernick or Cuckerberg are, off hand, so I can't possibly be one of THOSE hypocrites. Also, I'm willing to debate or acknowledge points of view I don't personally agree with seriously if they're presented in a rational and coherent manner, and not pre-packaged-off-the-propaganda-pundit-press format (and without annoying pop-culture icons, hashtags, slogans, or cartoon mascots - like that obnoxious frog, above). @jvikings1 and @wolves are good examples of right-leaning posters I can engage in serious debate with, as well as @Reagan04 in issues outside his firmly-entrenched socially religious conservative views. @NYrepublican is close, but he spams annoying videos and makes EXTENSIVE use of corner cases and isolated anecdotes to back his case.

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I think @servo75's bias is blinding him somewhat, as he seems to think that about all of us who dislike Trump, left-leaning or right-leaning forum users, have a knee-jerk dislike of anything associated with him. That is incorrect, and can be proven in the Trump polls that ask us to check the things that he's done that we agree with or disagree with, as well as in statements we've made. 

I'll list several things Trump has done that I think he has done well:

  • He handled the hurricane aftermath very well in Texas, Florida, and other nearby states from those two hurricanes. 
  • I think firing Bannon was a difficult decision for him to make, but he made the sage decision. 
  • I think his appointments of Mattis, Nikki Haley, Kelly, McMaster, and a few others were great decisions.
  • I think selecting Jon Huntsman as Amb to Russia was one of the best ambassadorial decision of any president, since Huntsman is arguably one of the best ambassadors and fair-minded politicians we have. 
  • I, unlike many, approve of his retaliating against Syria when Assad used chemical weapons. (I believed in using the military for humanitarian reasons)
  • I think moving Kelly from his old position to Chief of Staff was very wise, and I think Kelly is the right Chief of Staff for Trump. 
  • While I disagree with almost all of Trump's views on Obamacare, I do think his desire to allow people to buy insurance across state lines is a good idea. 
  • While I don't agree with his tone, I'm thinking his precedence of using Twitter as a major means of communicating with voters is something later presidents should use, similar to how earlier presidents took on photography, the radio, TV, etc., to reach voters. 

So my reaction, and I think many of the anti-Trump forum member here, actually take each issue and make the decision based, not only on our ideologies, but on what we find as generally "right," or "wrong," "wise," or "unwise," "proper," or "improper." I can safely say, for me, that about 85% of what Trump does falls somewhere between, "I'd rather wish he hadn't done that," or, "My God! That's awful!" But I am able to still keep an open mind allow for things that I see that are good decisions or good precedents. If it makes Servo feel any better, I don't think Trump will be as dangerous as Bush, because I think Trump is a weaker president (weak as in has less support, control, expertise to get what he wants done) than Bush, and likely to serve only one term. Also, a knee-jerk anti-Trump would immediately declare that Trump is the worst president of all time, when he hasn't been president long enough to really warrant that. He bests at least five presidents, possibly more. I'd argue it takes a much stronger bias/knee-jerk to conceive of Trump as a good president, than it takes to conceive of him as a bad president, considering Trump hasn't once polled favorably since he's been in office. 

Can Trump become a good president. Yes, theoretically there is time, and if he does improve, I will adjust my opinion accordingly. However, I don't expect such a transformation to occur, and the longer he continues his buffoonery, and decisiveness (don't worry, I blame the media, too), the less likely I am inclined to give him any sort of positive reviews. 

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25 minutes ago, SiorafasNaCillini said:

Hmm, calling other people snowflakes, Pepe with American flag in the avatar, liking Trump, calling someone a cuck, if it walks like a duck...then again there doesn't seem to be any kind of coherent ideological spectrum nowadays. 

image.jpeg.6f5485a94342679774685510b84f97d9.jpeg

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1 minute ago, NYrepublican said:

I'd like to have some more details.

I'm making a personal, subjective opinion and criticism on your debating style, not launching a lawsuit against you. The examples would be very numerous to accumulate, but ubiquitous enough that even you should be able to see them.

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2 minutes ago, servo75 said:

image.jpeg.6f5485a94342679774685510b84f97d9.jpeg

Ah, yes, this is exactly the type of pop culture trash constantly being linked on the Internet and called contributions to political debates I was referring to in response to @ThePotatoWalrus. Unless, of course, this is sardonic humour, which would be the only form it would be productive in, which it may very well be. In fact, I'm hoping it's a joke...

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5 minutes ago, Patine said:

I'm making a personal, subjective opinion and criticism on your debating style, not launching a lawsuit against you. The examples would be very numerous to accumulate, but ubiquitous enough that even you should be able to see them.

I don't know about the latter charge but I have NOT engaged in the first one for sure.

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Well if it's reductionist then it's spot on but what's described as centrism in the wheel is actually relativism (unless it means that both of them are right about some things and wrong about other things).

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Just now, NYrepublican said:

I don't know about the latter charge but I have NOT engaged in the first one for sure.

That's because you don't see the videos you constantly link and the frequency you do so as annoying, like I do.

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16 minutes ago, vcczar said:

I think @servo75's bias is blinding him somewhat, as he seems to think that about all of us who dislike Trump, left-leaning or right-leaning forum users, have a knee-jerk dislike of anything associated with him. That is incorrect, and can be proven in the Trump polls that ask us to check the things that he's done that we agree with or disagree with, as well as in statements we've made. 

I'll list several things Trump has done that I think he has done well:

  • He handled the hurricane aftermath very well in Texas, Florida, and other nearby states from those two hurricanes. 
  • I think firing Bannon was a difficult decision for him to make, but he made the sage decision. 
  • I think his appointments of Mattis, Nikki Haley, Kelly, McMaster, and a few others were great decisions.
  • I think selecting Jon Huntsman as Amb to Russia was one of the best ambassadorial decision of any president, since Huntsman is arguably one of the best ambassadors and fair-minded politicians we have. 
  • I, unlike many, approve of his retaliating against Syria when Assad used chemical weapons. (I believed in using the military for humanitarian reasons)
  • I think moving Kelly from his old position to Chief of Staff was very wise, and I think Kelly is the right Chief of Staff for Trump. 
  • While I disagree with almost all of Trump's views on Obamacare, I do think his desire to allow people to buy insurance across state lines is a good idea. 
  • While I don't agree with his tone, I'm thinking his precedence of using Twitter as a major means of communicating with voters is something later presidents should use, similar to how earlier presidents took on photography, the radio, TV, etc., to reach voters. 

So my reaction, and I think many of the anti-Trump forum member here, actually take each issue and make the decision based, not only on our ideologies, but on what we find as generally "right," or "wrong," "wise," or "unwise," "proper," or "improper." I can safely say, for me, that about 85% of what Trump does falls somewhere between, "I'd rather wish he hadn't done that," or, "My God! That's awful!" But I am able to still keep an open mind allow for things that I see that are good decisions or good precedents. If it makes Servo feel any better, I don't think Trump will be as dangerous as Bush, because I think Trump is a weaker president (weak as in has less support, control, expertise to get what he wants done) than Bush, and likely to serve only one term. Also, a knee-jerk anti-Trump would immediately declare that Trump is the worst president of all time, when he hasn't been president long enough to really warrant that. He bests at least five presidents, possibly more. I'd argue it takes a much stronger bias/knee-jerk to conceive of Trump as a good president, than it takes to conceive of him as a bad president, considering Trump hasn't once polled favorably since he's been in office. 

Can Trump become a good president. Yes, theoretically there is time, and if he does improve, I will adjust my opinion accordingly. However, I don't expect such a transformation to occur, and the longer he continues his buffoonery, and decisiveness (don't worry, I blame the media, too), the less likely I am inclined to give him any sort of positive reviews. 

Well I do appreciate you listing your things Trump has done well. I was basing my post mainly on your poll where even the non-negative things I sensed some cynicism with.

To be fair, I will list some things I think Trump has NOT done well..

1. Has not really addressed the deficit, other than the improved economy. That's not enough, we need growth combined with lower spending.

2. I'm absolutely against any infrastructure package. Roads, bridges, airports, those are state concerns. At a time when we are funding our national budget one month at a time because we can't agree on debt ceilings or cut spending, the last thing we need is another $1 trillion for something that should be state/local/privately controlled.

3. Though I agree with the outcome of buying insurance across state lines, I didn't like it when Obama ruled by executive order, and I have to be fair here too.

4. He's made a few questionable personnel decisions in the Executive Branch.  Gary Cohn, Javanka, McMaster, Tillerson... they don't seem to be on the same page. Trump is getting some very bad advice from left-wingers in his own inner circle.  I'm also very disappointed in Jeff Sessions. I like what he's done with sanctuary cities and MS-13, but he's been alarmingly absent on anything to do with Clinton corruption, his recusal was inexcusable, he refuses to take charge of the Mueller investigation in light of the revelation that members of that very investigation were on the inside of the Uranium One deal.  He seems more interested in the "war on drugs" and asset forfeiture than he is on the Obama administration selling 20% of our uranium to Russia.  Before he left Congress, Jason Chaffetz was told point blank by Sessions that he has no intent of prosecuting the email server. Trump has got to clean house and whip Sessions into shape or replace him.

5. The swamp is getting deeper.

6. I like the Tweeting but he has to pick his battles better. The media has been very unfair to him and he's right to call them out, something that GW Bush and Romney should have done, but going out of his way to pick fights with CNN is distracting from his positive message.

In terms of his "bully pulpit" mentality, I think it's important to realize that I and I suspect many others, voted for Trump specifically BECAUSE, not in spite of it.

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36 minutes ago, Patine said:

I'm not even sure who Kaepernick or Cuckerberg are, off hand, so I can't possibly be one of THOSE hypocrites. Also, I'm willing to debate or acknowledge points of view I don't personally agree with seriously if they're presented in a rational and coherent manner, and not pre-packaged-off-the-propaganda-pundit-press format (and without annoying pop-culture icons, hashtags, slogans, or cartoon mascots - like that obnoxious frog, above). @jvikings1 and @wolves are good examples of right-leaning posters I can engage in serious debate with, as well as @Reagan04 in issues outside his firmly-entrenched socially religious conservative views. @NYrepublican is close, but he spams annoying videos and makes EXTENSIVE use of corner cases and isolated anecdotes to back his case.

Yes I forgot about @Reagan04. With so few of us, you'd think I could remember us all :). What is good about this group is that at least people are informed and while I may disagree with the tone at times, we don't have "leftists" here; we keep things civil.

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4 minutes ago, EndOfCapitalism said:

@servo75 @Patine @Reagan04 @NYrepublican @vcczar @jvikings1 @ThePotatoWalrus YOU'RE ALL THE EVIL DEFENDERS OF A GREEDY SYSTEM.

Lmaooo

Commies are red

This forum is blue

You are a Marxist 

So Gulag for you

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