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vcczar

Bannon's prediction: 30% chance Trump doesn't finish term

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Interestingly, Steve Bannon predicted that Trump has a 30% chance of not finishing his term, believing the 25th amendment, which removes unfit presidents, might be invoked at some point. Bannon also mentioned that Trump, who clearly hasn't read the Constitution--the document he's supposed to preserve and defend, had never heard of the 25th Amendment. 

The clause in which Bannon refers to, states that the Vice President and the majority of the executive officers must declare the president unfit. It seems required that the VP must be one of the votes for this declaration. 

First question

My question first is, if Mike Pence did declare Trump unfit, which "executive branch officers" are likely to follow Pence in removing Trump as president?

My own list is as follows: Tillerson, Sessions, Mattis,  Mnuchin, Perry, Ross, Chao, Acosta, Shulkin, Nielsen. This would be a majority. 

Trump would be able to declare himself fit, but the same people that declared him unfit would have to reconfirm that he is unfit. 

Second question

What would happen if Trump removed cabinet member as soon as they moved to declare him unfit? Making it impossible for them to gain a majority?

 

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3 hours ago, vcczar said:

Interestingly, Steve Bannon predicted that Trump has a 30% chance of not finishing his term, believing the 25th amendment, which removes unfit presidents, might be invoked at some point. Bannon also mentioned that Trump, who clearly hasn't read the Constitution--the document he's supposed to preserve and defend, had never heard of the 25th Amendment. 

The clause in which Bannon refers to, states that the Vice President and the majority of the executive officers must declare the president unfit. It seems required that the VP must be one of the votes for this declaration. 

First question

My question first is, if Mike Pence did declare Trump unfit, which "executive branch officers" are likely to follow Pence in removing Trump as president?

My own list is as follows: Tillerson, Sessions, Mattis,  Mnuchin, Perry, Ross, Chao, Acosta, Shulkin, Nielsen. This would be a majority. 

Trump would be able to declare himself fit, but the same people that declared him unfit would have to reconfirm that he is unfit. 

Second question

What would happen if Trump removed cabinet member as soon as they moved to declare him unfit? Making it impossible for them to gain a majority?

 

Actually, on your second question, they had a similar Constitutional crisis in Russia in 1998. According to the 1993 Russian Constitution (passed by Boris Yeltsin), the State Duma could initiate articles of impeachment only if instigated by the Prime Minister. However, the Prime Minister is appointed and dismissed from the members of the State Duma by the President, and doesn't actually require the single-party or coalition confidence of the State Duma like they do in the UK, France, Germany, Austria, Australia, Canada, etc. When Russian Prosecutor General Yuri Skuratov revealed the existence of FIMACO, a New Jersey-based front company that had been established by a former KGB operative to siphon and launder large amounts of Russian public money to give padded retirements to former CPSU officials, a scandal which traced to Yeltsin as one of the parties involved, there was a move to impeach Yeltsin. He evaded this by dismissing and appointing, in turn, several short-serving PM's before articles of impeachment could reach fruition, until, eventually, the premiership fell to the then largely-unknown Independent Duma member and former KGB colonel Vladimir Putin. At this point, to avoid further issue and problem, Tricky Dick-style, Yeltsin resigned as President, and, as per the Russian Constitution, since the office of VP had been abolished 1995, the PM became President, and the rest, as they say, is history...

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If a majority of Trump's hand-picked executive officers, and the Vice-President, voted for this, it would then require a 2/3rds vote in both chambers of Congress.

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1 hour ago, admin_270 said:

If a majority of Trump's hand-picked executive officers, and the Vice-President, voted for this, it would then require a 2/3rds vote in both chambers of Congress.

But such a Congressional super-majority could impeach him anyways without the executive.

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@Patine

Exactly. The scenario of a palace-coup can't happen through the 25th Amendment. It would require approx. half of Republican representatives supporting the removal of their own party's President, and all of those reps except those retiring would be facing re-election within at most 2 years. In other words, the removal would have to be for reasons that were convincing enough to the public to support something like impeachment.

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1 hour ago, admin_270 said:

@Patine

Exactly. The scenario of a palace-coup can't happen through the 25th Amendment. It would require approx. half of Republican representatives supporting the removal of their own party's President, and all of those reps except those retiring would be facing re-election within at most 2 years. In other words, the removal would have to be for reasons that were convincing enough to the public to support something like impeachment.

and @Patine

I wouldn't expect Pence, etc. to move to remove Trump unless it seemed likely that the House would follow. This means Dems would have to take back a lot of seats in 2018, and enough moderate Republicans and extreme Conservatives would have to vote with the Democrats in removing them. 

One could argue that Pence and etc. might do it, hoping that the House doesn't go through with it, as a lesson for Trump; however, Trump is so reactionary that it will only embolden him to be more independent. I seem them doing that only if the party wants to detach themselves from Trump, and run Pence or someone else as an anti-Trump alternative to Kasich or the Democrats. It would be insanely risky. 

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53 minutes ago, vcczar said:

and @Patine

I wouldn't expect Pence, etc. to move to remove Trump unless it seemed likely that the House would follow. This means Dems would have to take back a lot of seats in 2018, and enough moderate Republicans and extreme Conservatives would have to vote with the Democrats in removing them. 

One could argue that Pence and etc. might do it, hoping that the House doesn't go through with it, as a lesson for Trump; however, Trump is so reactionary that it will only embolden him to be more independent. I seem them doing that only if the party wants to detach themselves from Trump, and run Pence or someone else as an anti-Trump alternative to Kasich or the Democrats. It would be insanely risky. 

Such a situation over the 2020 GOP nomination could lead to another 1912-type situation for the Republicans.

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3 hours ago, Patine said:

Such a situation over the 2020 GOP nomination could lead to another 1912-type situation for the Republicans.

In this scenario, I picture Trump veering to the center, to become a sort of centrist populist, if that makes any sense, especially if a Pence or other conservative runs against him. If Kasich runs against him, I see him staying about the same, but potentially taking on some Sanders-like positions just to get votes, especially if the Democrats nominate another moderate like Clinton. 

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