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vcczar

2020 Election update

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I've decided to update the endorsers in my 2020 election, since I hadn't done so since November or December 2016, which has allowed for some Governors and Senators that are unlikely to serve in those positions, since rumors have changed. 

I'd say I changed about 15 of the endorsers. This will be included in the update, whenever I post it. 

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You'll see when I update them. Basically, I removed people that are no longer considering running for office or rumored to run for office. For instance, Jason Carter for Georgia, who I had as a Democratic governor. However, since Republicans are much more likely to keep that office, I have placed a Republican governor. I also didn't have Roy Moore or Kay Ivey. Joseph P. Kennedy III is no longer governor of Massachusetts because Charlie Baker is so popular, and likely to win reelection. I had a Republican governor of Illinois, but now I've replaced him with a Democratic governor (Chris Kennedy). I had an Independent governor of Maine, but I now have a Democrat (I think). I forgot who else I changed. 

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On 10/8/2017 at 2:57 PM, vcczar said:

I've decided to update the endorsers in my 2020 election, since I hadn't done so since November or December 2016, which has allowed for some Governors and Senators that are unlikely to serve in those positions, since rumors have changed. 

I'd say I changed about 15 of the endorsers. This will be included in the update, whenever I post it. 

Two questions:

(1) Would you consider adding Kasich (default off) as a candidate for the Dem primary? He hasn't outright stated the possibility, but he has really attacked the direction of the GOP, and questioned whether he or people like him has a place in the party anymore.

(2) Considering how Bannon is pumping up the rhetoric of primarying establishment republicans in midterms, do you think it would be worth it to add a populist challenger to primary Trump? Maybe even Bannon himself (though I imagine he'd probably put his support behind Cruz or Cotton instead, with Tulsi, who he's been a fan of as well, being a long shot), since he's been doing more speaking roles campaigning (for Moore, and particularly at major GOP grassroots events recently)?

(Thanks for all you do on these scenarios BTW. For many of the elections your commission has covered so far, I might not have the requisite knowledge but I've enjoyed playing them/reading up.)

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On 10/16/2017 at 8:53 PM, thr33 said:

Two questions:

(1) Would you consider adding Kasich (default off) as a candidate for the Dem primary? He hasn't outright stated the possibility, but he has really attacked the direction of the GOP, and questioned whether he or people like him has a place in the party anymore.

(2) Considering how Bannon is pumping up the rhetoric of primarying establishment republicans in midterms, do you think it would be worth it to add a populist challenger to primary Trump? Maybe even Bannon himself (though I imagine he'd probably put his support behind Cruz or Cotton instead, with Tulsi, who he's been a fan of as well, being a long shot), since he's been doing more speaking roles campaigning (for Moore, and particularly at major GOP grassroots events recently)?

(Thanks for all you do on these scenarios BTW. For many of the elections your commission has covered so far, I might not have the requisite knowledge but I've enjoyed playing them/reading up.)

Those are both good suggestions, but I'd have to see some more rumors. Kasich has no chance of winning the Democratic primary. I have created him as an independent option. I might add more populist challengers that are Bannon-pawns, but I'd have to identify who these are, and who might run. 

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18 hours ago, CalebsParadox said:

Do you have any ETA on this coming out? 

It will be part of my historical elections updates. I'll released 1976 and 1980 this weekend. 1984 and 1988 (hopefully the latter, if the author has a draft for me to help improve) the following week. Then 1992 and 1996. Then 2000 and 2004. Then 2008 and 2012. Then 2016 and 2020. So about 5 weeks.  

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3 hours ago, vcczar said:

It will be part of my historical elections updates. I'll released 1976 and 1980 this weekend. 1984 and 1988 (hopefully the latter, if the author has a draft for me to help improve) the following week. Then 1992 and 1996. Then 2000 and 2004. Then 2008 and 2012. Then 2016 and 2020. So about 5 weeks.  

@vcczar you're more than welcome to use my 1988 scenario and edit it how you'd like :)

It's just a few things that you'll have to edit compared to just starting from scratch.

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I might add Bob Corker as a candidate for 2020. 

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On 10/19/2017 at 3:41 PM, vcczar said:

Those are both good suggestions, but I'd have to see some more rumors. Kasich has no chance of winning the Democratic primary. I have created him as an independent option. I might add more populist challengers that are Bannon-pawns, but I'd have to identify who these are, and who might run. 

Kind of rumor-y, but mostly speculation:

http://thehill.com/opinion/white-house/356849-bannon-may-run-for-president

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@vcczar

Just was playing the campaign, so for Financial Regulations issue, these are the positions (far-left to far-right):

Quote

• The Federal Reserve must stay, but it should be audited and heavily regulated.
• Increase regulations on the Financial Sector.
• Reinstitute Glass-Steagall
• The Financial Sector is fine as it is; bail outs might be necessary at times.
• We should decrease regulations, but hold the industry accountable.
• Greatly decrease regulations.
• The Federal Reserve should be abolished. Wall Street should be audited.

I think it would make sense to swap "Reinstitute Glass-Steagall" (currently center-left, should be left IMO; the scenario also has a typo, 'Steagle' instead of 'Steagall') with "Increase regulations on the Financial Sector" (currently left, should be center-left IMO).

(This was actually an issue from the 2016 election, so if you are making a new version of the scenario, might be worth adding it. One other missing 2016 issue I can think of was the minimum wage, but only three candidates - Clinton, Sanders, Trump - spoke on it, and I'm not sure if there was any expectation that legislation would be passed. For 2020 I imagine it will be an issue In the Dem primary. Then again, shortly after primaries ended, talk of the issue stopped, so maybe it's not as important.)

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1 hour ago, thr33 said:

@vcczar

Just was playing the campaign, so for Financial Regulations issue, these are the positions (far-left to far-right):

I think it would make sense to swap "Reinstitute Glass-Steagall" (currently center-left, should be left IMO; the scenario also has a typo, 'Steagle' instead of 'Steagall') with "Increase regulations on the Financial Sector" (currently left, should be center-left IMO).

(This was actually an issue from the 2016 election, so if you are making a new version of the scenario, might be worth adding it. One other missing 2016 issue I can think of was the minimum wage, but only three candidates - Clinton, Sanders, Trump - spoke on it, and I'm not sure if there was any expectation that legislation would be passed. For 2020 I imagine it will be an issue In the Dem primary. Then again, shortly after primaries ended, talk of the issue stopped, so maybe it's not as important.)

Thanks. I will definitely alter the 2020 issues greatly. They have not been modified since Dec 2016. 

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Have been busy lately so haven't been on, but another piece about a potential Bannon 2020 run:

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2017/12/bannon-for-president-trump-kushner-ivanka

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6 hours ago, thr33 said:

Have been busy lately so haven't been on, but another piece about a potential Bannon 2020 run:

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2017/12/bannon-for-president-trump-kushner-ivanka

Bannon should just go crawl in a cave somewhere. He's a HUGE part of the problem in the U.S., along with the mentality that he and his "news" site foster, and he is a highly destructive, venomous, virulent, and degenerative element in American the socio-political sphere, and his "solutions" to the nation's would only make things horribly worse if fully embraced.

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This condorcet poll may be of some interest to anyone considering 2020 scenarios. I found this poll posted on alternatehistory.com, so while I can't say who all has voted, but the forum itself is only slightly left-of-center on average. Lots of interesting ranking/versus information. I thought it could be helpful.

civs.cs.cornell.edu

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12 hours ago, Lyly said:

This condorcet poll may be of some interest to anyone considering 2020 scenarios. I found this poll posted on alternatehistory.com, so while I can't say who all has voted, but the forum itself is only slightly left-of-center on average. Lots of interesting ranking/versus information. I thought it could be helpful.

civs.cs.cornell.edu

It's interesting. I don't completely agree with the global ranking. It sounds like a lot of people to read enough of the news, rumors, shifts in voting behavior, and shifts in rhetoric, etc. 

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@vcczar I think you might want to scratch Bannon. After Wolf's book, not only has Breitbart "News" ejected him, and his surfaced quotes have probably made him more enemies than he can now deal with, apparently his sponsors have, or are seriously considering, cutting off funding him and his political projects. I think he's finished politically.

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1 hour ago, Patine said:

@vcczar I think you might want to scratch Bannon. After Wolf's book, not only has Breitbart "News" ejected him, and his surfaced quotes have probably made him more enemies than he can now deal with, apparently his sponsors have, or are seriously considering, cutting off funding him and his political projects. I think he's finished politically.

I think he might start something new, and somehow rise up, rather annoyingly. 

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Just now, vcczar said:

I think he might start something new, and somehow rise up, rather annoyingly. 

Wouldn't shock me.

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On 10/16/2017 at 8:53 PM, thr33 said:

Two questions:

(1) Would you consider adding Kasich (default off) as a candidate for the Dem primary? He hasn't outright stated the possibility, but he has really attacked the direction of the GOP, and questioned whether he or people like him has a place in the party anymore.

(2) Considering how Bannon is pumping up the rhetoric of primarying establishment republicans in midterms, do you think it would be worth it to add a populist challenger to primary Trump? Maybe even Bannon himself (though I imagine he'd probably put his support behind Cruz or Cotton instead, with Tulsi, who he's been a fan of as well, being a long shot), since he's been doing more speaking roles campaigning (for Moore, and particularly at major GOP grassroots events recently)?

(Thanks for all you do on these scenarios BTW. For many of the elections your commission has covered so far, I might not have the requisite knowledge but I've enjoyed playing them/reading up.)

Banning primary challenges are over I guess.

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On 10/01/2018 at 1:32 AM, Patine said:

@vcczar I think you might want to scratch Bannon. After Wolf's book, not only has Breitbart "News" ejected him, and his surfaced quotes have probably made him more enemies than he can now deal with, apparently his sponsors have, or are seriously considering, cutting off funding him and his political projects. I think he's finished politically.

About time!

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