Jump to content
270soft Forum
NYrepublican

Catalonia Independence Referendum

Recommended Posts

13 hours ago, Sami said:

I can just say that the situation is hardest than ever before :D

750 000 people have been gathered to claim freedom for the political prisonners

The Independentists have raised in the polls to 47,6% while the unionists are at 50,1%.

The last polls show that the independentists are for the moment likely to be re elected.

They putted a lot of strategies.

1st, Puigdemont change his political platform from PDeCat (Center Right, his party) to Together for Catalonia! (Including independents among his list to gain more votes).

2nd: The independentists have made A MAJOR MOVE, they renounce to the unilateral declaration and state they are ready to find a better deal, but maybe this is a strategy to win a large majority in December.

It can work, but it can also be a political suicide.

3rd: Madrid showed its first signs of weakeness

Now the Rajoy's cabinet talks about modifying the Constitution to give more things to Catalonia, Rajoy came to the state to ask the enterprises to not leave Catalonia.

4th: The unionists in Catalonia are divided:

The Right Union: PP (Right) and Ciudadanos (Center Right) are for the suppression of the autonomy as long as needed and against a referendum.

The Left Union: PSOE (Socialists) and PODEMOS (Stong left) are against the suppression of the regional autonomy and PODEMOS pledges that them can reach a referendum.

On a national stage, Ciudadanos who has a dangerous speech of Spanish Nationalism has gained a momentum out of Catalonia.

They are now at 17,5% and equal to PODEMOS, even upon them sometimes.

The PP is still first nationally and PSOE second.

So if the things continue like they are:

The Unionists from the Right are taking strenght out of Catalonia.

The Independentists are gaining momentum in Catalonia.

To see the next polls.

Last thing, police has launched an accusation of insult against the humorists who mock them.

Mind you, the Catalonian Separatists aren't the worst off in the world as separatists go. Remember, in the '90's, when Boris Yeltsin was firing cruise missiles and landing Spetnatz paratroopers and maneuvering tanks into Chechnya, and devastating whole villages, before his successor, Putin, realized it'd be far easier to govern the area through a strong-armed but native-born loyal tyrant, the Ramzons (the father and son), a lesson learned by historical precedent ranging from the Romans installing Herod as the puppet ruler of Judea on their behalf all the way up until many Axis puppet states during WW2 and puppet states under both the East and West Bloc during the Cold War.

Another separatist movement who've been clamped down on but good are the Tibetans in China since 1959 (not that pre-1959 Tibet was REALY the land of happiness, joy, peace, prosperity, and respect for human rights that's often portrayed, moreso by omission and not volunteering details - it was in fact a far different situation that most Westerners realize - but the annexation by China was an unprovoked violation of Tibet's sovereignty nonetheless).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 minutes ago, Patine said:

Mind you, the Catalonian Separatists aren't the worst off in the world as separatists go. Remember, in the '90's, when Boris Yeltsin was firing cruise missiles and landing Spetnatz paratroopers and maneuvering tanks into Chechnya, and devastating whole villages, before his successor, Putin, realized it'd be far easier to govern the area through a strong-armed but native-born loyal tyrant, the Ramzons (the father and son), a lesson learned by historical precedent ranging from the Romans installing Herod as the puppet ruler of Judea on their behalf all the way up until many Axis puppet states during WW2 and puppet states under both the East and West Bloc during the Cold War.

Another separatist movement who've been clamped down on but good are the Tibetans in China since 1959 (not that pre-1959 Tibet was REALY the land of happiness, joy, peace, prosperity, and respect for human rights that's often portrayed, moreso by omission and not volunteering details - it was in fact a far different situation that most Westerners realize - but the annexation by China was an unprovoked violation of Tibet's sovereignty nonetheless).

Personnaly I am supporting the Catalans independentists

But I am neutral when I do my report and I try to put the good news for them but also for Madrid :P

I personnaly lived with a Quebecer slight federalist but I know what is an independentist movement, and often they are not racists, they are even majoritary in the Left than in the Right in many countries.

This is the current case of Catalonia, but also Quebec, and also Corsica where I came many times.

The Kurds are also victims of the Middle East for me.

People mix easily the will to build something great, a new place of life to protect his/her language or his her culture with racism and xenophobia.

While in fact, it's not different from the Brexit.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, Sami said:

Personnaly I am supporting the Catalans independentists

But I am neutral when I do my report and I try to put the good news for them but also for Madrid :P

I am in cupple with a Quebecer slight federalist but I know what is an independentist movement, and often they are not racists, they are even majoritary in the Left than in the Right in many countries.

This is the current case of Catalonia, but also Quebec, and also Corsica where I came many times.

The Kurds are also victims of the Middle East for me.

People mix easily the will to build something great, a new place of life to protect his/her language or his her culture with racism and xenophobia.

While in fact, it's not different from the Brexit.

Although I definitely see your point, I must point out, in my long-standing tradition of debunking myths commonly held in the modern about the political spectrum, that, contrary to popular belief, racism can (and has) occurred institutionally in left-wing government and ideologies. Political viewpoints are far more complex than the modern simplifier pundits who want to pigeon-hole everything as "right-wing" or "left-wing" artificially, and then expect the whole ideological framework in question to conform to that or be called "inexplicable" or "ingenuine." I'm not calling out  a specific "racist left-wing" group (though a few come to mind), but just clarifying my traditional viewpoint against simplifying and stereotypes political viewpoints overly that seems a powerful part of the zeitgeist (a clarification I've made several times toward stereotypes and oversimplifications made by much more sharply right-leaning posters previously).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, Patine said:

Although I definitely see your point, I must point out, in my long-standing tradition of debunking myths commonly held in the modern about the political spectrum, that, contrary to popular belief, racism can (and has) occurred institutionally in left-wing government and ideologies. Political viewpoints are far more complex than the modern simplifier pundits who want to pigeon-hole everything as "right-wing" or "left-wing" artificially, and then expect the whole ideological framework in question to conform to that or be called "inexplicable" or "ingenuine." I'm not calling out  a specific "racist left-wing" group (though a few come to mind), but just clarifying my traditional viewpoint against simplifying and stereotypes political viewpoints overly that seems a powerful part of the zeitgeist (a clarification I've made several times toward stereotypes and oversimplifications made by much more sharply right-leaning posters previously).

I do not contradict you :P

But it is about soft left rather than hard left who are not really better than the far right

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The polls are showing that the Independentists are getting back the control of the Parliament at 2 weeks of the vote.

Puigdemont has got a revival in the polls, his last passed from 8 to 16-19%.

The 2015 election risks to be anew declared

Spain withdraws its international mandate against Puigdemont, admitting that it was political without saying it

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

(I take some mins of my day to inform there :P)

Puigdemont is continuing his rise, an incredible rise

If the momentum continues he could pass from the 5th position to the 1st:

Last polls:

Independentists column 48-49% (majority predicted in 2 polls on 3)

JunxtsPerCat (Puigdemont): 19-21,5% 30-32 seats

ERC-Catsi (Oriol Junqueras VP of Puigdemont): 20-22% 30-32 seats.

CUP (Hard Socialists and conf and supp of both): 7-9% 7-11 seats.

 

Unionist column: 49-50%

Ciudadanos (Center-Right most anti-Catalonia ind): 22-23% 27-30 seats.

Socialists (Moderate unionists) 12-15%: around 17 to 21 seats.

CatComu (Podemos, pro Referendum) 8% around 7 to 9 seats

PP (Party of Rajoy) 5 to 7% (total flop) around 5 to 7 seats.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Presidentinsertname said:

Calling it now jeb bush 100% landside

Stop beating the dead horse with this hackneyed joke (at least I assume it was once "funny" to someone at some point) please.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 hours ago, Patine said:

Stop beating the dead horse with this hackneyed joke (at least I assume it was once "funny" to someone at some point) please.

Probably only to him.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well, the separatists won a renewed majority in the Catalan parliament.  I was kind of expecting this to be the outcome.  But, I was surprised at Carles Puigdemont's performance.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, jvikings1 said:

Well, the separatists won a renewed majority in the Catalan parliament.  I was kind of expecting this to be the outcome.  But, I was surprised at Carles Puigdemont's performance.

Let's see how Spain reacts to this.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Presidentinsertname said:

JEB! landslide. again how do he keep doing it.

true.gif.39f1e7fd622981ba66d9a352037e7349.gif

There comes a point where a joke isn't funny anymore

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, Presidentinsertname said:

JEB! landslide. again how do he keep doing it.

368abfbf-1650-44f7-925b-8e9e61773b6b.thumb.jpg.264209dd7e30f875f273c2ee6db0e2fb.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, Presidentinsertname said:

you think they would have banned the pro leave parties.

Once you start outlawing political parties just because they're ideology doesn't match a pre-determined or arbitrarily-decided sense of being "politically compatible," "patriotic," or "nationalistically loyal," the tool is suddenly in place to cut more such parties, ideologies, popular movements, and, eventually, any dissent at all, and tyranny quickly and rapidly follows - it can't help but to. This is, in fact, a danger of would have easily happened if the precedent of the (blatantly Unconstitutional) laws around the Red Scare in the U.S. had remained in place and been pushed further, and are indeed something that could still be built, in a different way, on the foundations of the (also blatantly Unconstitutional, and still legally active) so-called "Patriot" Act.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Spain did not accept to have been beaten

Puigdemont offered to Rajoy to discuss at Bruxelle as he will be re elected President de la Generalitat but Rajoy said he will only cooperate with the winner of the parliament vote independently of the winner.

8 MP among the independentist majority could be putted in jail.

I see a lost of disgusting spanish nationalists who claim the victory of Ciutadans (the unionist party) who got 25% of the vote and 37 seats thanks to the total loose from the party of Rajoy (which passed from 11% to 4% and finished last of the regionals and national parties). And who ignore the fact that both independentists parties were behind with 21,7 and 21,4% + the CUP with 4,5%.

The independentist bloc managed 47,5% of the vote but with a huge participation of 82%.

In some words, the results of 2015 are maintained.

47,5% of Catalonia are openly pro independentist

7,5% are moderate and want a referendum (Podem)

45% of Catalonia are openly against the independence (even if some want a reform of the Statute among them, 14%).

For me the only way to beaten the independentists is that Rajoy resigns

If tomorrow there would be an election, the Independentists would have been re-elected too

The economy sucks, the economic threats are huge, but the middle of the Catalans are too angry to take care of it, and you can't convince someone who is hurted and convinced

It was the same European error for Brexit

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, Sami said:

Spain did not accept to have been beaten

Puigdemont offered to Rajoy to discuss at Bruxelle as he will be re elected President de la Generalitat but Rajoy said he will only cooperate with the winner of the parliament vote independently of the winner.

8 MP among the independentist majority could be putted in jail.

I see a lost of disgusting spanish nationalists who claim the victory of Ciutadans (the unionist party) who got 25% of the vote and 37 seats thanks to the total loose from the party of Rajoy (which passed from 11% to 4% and finished last of the regionals and national parties). And who ignore the fact that both independentists parties were behind with 21,7 and 21,4% + the CUP with 4,5%.

The independentist bloc managed 47,5% of the vote but with a huge participation of 82%.

In some words, the results of 2015 are maintained.

47,5% of Catalonia are openly pro independentist

7,5% are moderate and want a referendum (Podem)

45% of Catalonia are openly against the independence (even if some want a reform of the Statute among them, 14%).

For me the only way to beaten the independentists is that Rajoy resigns

If tomorrow there would be an election, the Independentists would have been re-elected too

The economy sucks, the economic threats are huge, but the middle of the Catalans are too angry to take care of it, and you can't convince someone who is hurted and convinced

It was the same European error for Brexit

What percentage of the permanent resident population of the Catalan Autonomous Community are more or less ethnic and linguistic Catalans, and what percentage are from other parts of Spain, or elsewhere entirely, either by birth or persistent cultural or linguistic generational lineage, roughly?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

50% of the Catalans are speaking Catalan at home

Those who are outside..mhmm more difficult

But it has been prooved that the massive immigration of Spanish people into Catalonia did not work

Franco did that to stop the number of independentists, but many of them have become independentists with generations

The independentist coalition is really national

Puigdemont is a Center Right Liberal guy

his VP Oriol Junqueras is a Left guy with Left policies

And the CUP is a marxist revolutionnary party

All are together on one thing, independence

So I do believe that it's a question of identify but intern and not between the people, the Catalans want to protect their region by making it independent but not by racism as some spanish commentators could say

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, Sami said:

50% of the Catalans are speaking Catalan at home

Those who are outside..mhmm more difficult

But it has been prooved that the massive immigration of Spanish people into Catalonia did not work

Franco did that to stop the number of independentists, but many of them have become independentists with generations

The independentist coalition is really national

Puigdemont is a Center Right Liberal guy

his VP Oriol Junqueras is a Left guy with Left policies

And the CUP is a marxist revolutionnary party

All are together on one thing, independence

So I do believe that it's a question of identify but intern and not between the people, the Catalans want to protect their region by making it independent but not by racism as some spanish commentators could say

now i wanted catalon to leave to see how this turn out. but again I could really care less about catalan,

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Presidentinsertname said:

now i wanted catalon to leave to see how this turn out. but again I could really care less about catalan,

Well, that's not surprising anymore, given what your fickle, uninformed, stereotyping, two-bit worldview has shown itself to be...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Final result of the map:

1250px-Resultats_Eleccions_al_Parlament_

JxCat (pink): Carles Puigdemont

ERC (yellow in the South and the North) Puigdemont (VP of Puigdemont and independentist)

C's (Ciudadanos, unionist, center right).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Sami said:

Final result of the map:

1250px-Resultats_Eleccions_al_Parlament_

JxCat (pink): Carles Puigdemont

ERC (yellow in the South and the North) Puigdemont (VP of Puigdemont and independentist)

C's (Ciudadanos, unionist, center right).

So, we've got these new elections. Has Rajoy firmly committed to any binding response to them by the Spanish government in Madrid, or has he just made oblique and nebulous typical "politician" statements rife with omission and non-commitment?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
31 minutes ago, Patine said:

So, we've got these new elections. Has Rajoy firmly committed to any binding response to them by the Spanish government in Madrid, or has he just made oblique and nebulous typical "politician" statements rife with omission and non-commitment?

Second option!

Puigdemont asked to talk with Rajoy out of Catalonia for non being arrested and present his candidacy for the Presidency of the Generalitat.

Rajoy answered "I will be there to talk with the next President of the Region but only in Spain and this should be the candidate of Ciudadanos (C's).

In fact the blocs are important

The President of the region is elected by the Parliament, but the stances of the 3 independentists parties have changed a bit

Independentist bloc 70 MPs

JXCat: Carles Puigdemont 34 seats => We can discuss of a new referendum and withdraw the unilateral declaration

ERC-Catsi Oriol junqueras 32 seats => The same

CUP 4 seats => (Marxists which considers that Catalonia is already a republic) => Unilateral declaration is enough and we have to become a Country now

Total: Moderates 66 MPs Hard Independentist 4 => 70 (absolute majority 68).

BUT

There two voted in the parliament of Cat, and if the Pres does not receive 68 votes, he can be elected at the simple majority

Or, there are 65 unionists in the new paliament in total and 66 moderate independentist MPs, so basically, Puigdemont can govern a coalition without the hard independentists (the CUP) by 1 seat if Spain accepts to let him come back.

The change is major

In the previous parliament, Puigdemont and Oriol had 62 MPs, and the CUP 10, so without the CUP, the unionists coud make fall the Puigdemont government because there were 63 unionist MPs in front of them vs 62 moderate independentists.

That's why there has been the declaration of independence.

Now, Puigdemont and Oriol lead 66 moderate independentists MPs versus 65 clear unionists (and reach the absolute majority with the 4 hard independentist Mps from the CUP).

Basically, a new independentist coalition can emerge from this election, more disposed to a common decision on a legal referendum.

But it takes that Spain realizes the Catalan situation and accepts it.

Puigdemont has been clear, he told "I can govern without the support of the CUP" which means that he accepts to withdraw the unilateral declaration, but not the process to independence.

Madrid made some efforts:

-The Spanish police has begun to leave Catalonia.

But the Judges stay hard:

-2 MP of the CUP (the extreme Left which has 4 MPs and wants independency even by violence) have been arrested for appeal to violence in allegation

Rajoy is a bit upset, the Spanish population is more and more fan of Ciudadanos and his extreme anti Catalan speech while the Independentists are moderating their position to unite Catalonia behind them

If Spain does not reform its Constitution, the independentists will have more than 50% in the next parliament

Because if the independentists are divided between the direct and the undirect declaration of independence, when Rajoy says "Arrimadas (Ciudadanos) should lead Catalonia" this is TO TA LLY umpossible.

Because the unionist group is composed of many different vues of what Catalonia should become:

Among the 65 unionists Mps

Ciudadanos (Arrimadas) => 34 seats => Catalonia should shut up and come back to work with Spain (in big résumé)

Socialists => 17 seats => Catalonia should become a Federal State among a federacy, Ciudadanos is crazy

Cat-Comu (Podemos) => 8 seats => Catalonia has the right to a legal referendum on the independence, Ciudadanos is crazy

Partido Popular (Rajoy) => 3 seats => Same than Ciudadanos but more calm

So the "Left" unionists are moderate people who want to make gains for the region while the "Right" unionists want that the region shuts up

And Arrimadas would only govern with 37 MPs basically, because noone of the Socialists or CatComu would join her for her policies and for their ideas of what the region should become.

In addition, never Podemos (Cat-Comu) would even abstain to maker her the Pdt while the Socialists could maybe abstain themself, and she can't win a first race election with 37 MPs on 135 and 78 Mps (Independentists + Cat-Comu) ready to bloc her.

Cat Comu and the Socialists want a spanish reform and neither Ciudadanos neither the PP can accept it, so basically the unionist side has 50% because there are really different and opposed, more than the independentist parties who only differ between them on the date of declaration.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, Sami said:

Second option!

Puigdemont asked to talk with Rajoy out of Catalonia for non being arrested and present his candidacy for the Presidency of the Generalitat.

Rajoy answered "I will be there to talk with the next President of the Region but only in Spain and this should be the candidate of Ciudadanos (C's).

In fact the blocs are important

The President of the region is elected by the Parliament, but the stances of the 3 independentists parties have changed a bit

Independentist bloc

JXCat: Carles Puigdemont 34 seats => We can discuss of a new referendum and withdraw the unilateral declaration

ERC-Catsi Oriol junqueras 32 seats => The same

CUP 4 seats => (Marxists which considers that Catalonia is already a republic) => Unilateral declaration is enough and we have to become a Country now

Total: Moderates 66 MPs Hard Independentist 4 => 70 (absolute majority 68).

BUT

There two voted in the parliament of Cat, and if the Pres does not receive 68 votes, he can be elected at the simple majority

Or, there are 65 unionists in the new paliament in total and 66 moderate independentist MPs, so basically, Puigdemont can govern a coalition without the hard independentists (the CUP) by 1 seat if Spain accepts to let him come back.

The change is major

In the previous parliament, Puigdemont and Oriol had 62 MPs, and the CUP 10, so without the CUP, the unionists coud make fall the Puigdemont government because there were 63 unionist MPs in front of them vs 62 moderate independentists.

That's why there has been the declaration of independence.

Now, Puigdemont and Oriol lead 66 moderate independentists MPs versus 65 clear unionists (and reach the absolute majority with the 4 hard independentist Mps from the CUP).

Basically, a new independentist coalition can emerge from this election, more disposed to a common decision on a legal referendum.

But it takes that Spain realizes the Catalan situation and accepts it.

Puigdemont has been clear, he told "I can govern without the support of the CUP" which means that he accepts to withdraw the unilateral declaration, but not the process to independence.

Madrid made some efforts:

-The Spanish police has begun to leave Catalonia.

But the Judges stay hard:

-2 MP of the CUP (the extreme Left which has 4 MPs and wants independency even by violence) have been arrested for appeal to violence in allegation

Rajoy is a bit upset, the Spanish population is more and more fan of Ciudadanos and his extreme anti Catalan speech while the Independentists are moderating their position to unite Catalonia behind them

If Spain does not reform its Constitution, the independentists will have more than 50% in the next parliament

Because if the independentists are divided between the direct and the undirect declaration of independence, when Rajoy says "Arrimadas (Ciudadanos) should lead Catalonia" this is TO TA LLY umpossible.

Because the unionist group is composed of many different vues of what Catalonia should become:

Among the 65 unionists Mps

Ciudadanos (Arrimadas) => 34 seats => Catalonia should shut up and come back to work with Spain (in big résumé)

Socialists => 17 seats => Catalonia should become a Federal State among a federacy, Ciudadanos is crazy

Cat-Comu (Podemos) => 8 seats => Catalonia has the right to a legal referendum on the independence, Ciudadanos is crazy

Partido Popular (Rajoy) => 3 seats => Same than Ciudadanos but more calm

So the "Left" unionists are moderate people who want to make gains for the region while the "Right" unionists want that the region shuts up

And Arrimadas would only govern with 37 MPs basically, because noone of the Socialists or CatComu would join her for her policies and for their ideas of what the region should become.

In addition, never Podemos (Cat-Comu) would even abstain to maker her the Pdt while the Socialists could maybe abstain themself, and she can't win a first race election with 37 MPs on 135 and 78 Mps (Independentists + Cat-Comu) ready to bloc her.

Cat Comu and the Socialists want a spanish reform and neither Ciudadanos neither the PP can accept it, so basically the unionist side has 50% because there are really different and opposed, more than the independentist parties who only differ between them on the date of declaration.

From what I can gather, the idea of the "indivisible Spanish domains" far predate the Franco Constitution, but go back to King Carlos I (who was also Holy Roman Emperor Karl V and Karl, Archduke of Austria and Duke of Burgundy, etc.), who took power in a day when many magnates of Spain were still alive and in power from the end days of the Reconquista and the start of the Inquisition. In fact, from what I've read, it was this "indivisibility" doctrine that made the Wars of Independence in Spanish America so bloody and carrying over a century of diplomatic acrimony with Spain thereafter. Even though the specific Constitutional law around it is much more recent, it seems to be the "indivisibility" ideal behind Spanish governance is centuries old, and thus makes it a more entrenched cultural and national concept to change and sell to the Spanish voters, not just a common Constitutional doctrine.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...