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FiveThirtyEights proposed Democratic candidates

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Nate Silver and 538 proposed the following Democrats as possible candidates for 2020:

  • Bernie Sanders
  • Elizabeth Warren
  • Joe Biden
  • Kamala Harris
  • Kirsten Gillibrand
  • Tim Ryan
  • Amy Klobuchar
  • Cory Booker
  • Michelle Obama
  • Al Franken
  • Deval Patrick
  • Hillary Clinton
  • Eric Garcetti
  • Steve Bullock
  • Dwayne Johnson
  • John Hickenlooper
  • Jason Kander
  • Chris Murphy
  • Sherrod Brown
  • Roy Cooper
  • Kasim Reed
  • Bill de Blasio
  • Mark Zuckerberg
  • Mitch Landrieu
  • Mark Cuban
  • Martin O'Malley
  • Al Gore
  • Jeff Merkley
  • John Kerry
  • Julian Castro.

What are your thoughts? Who is missing? Who of these would you support? Who are the great, decent, and bad candidates?

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@vcczar There is a chance that Cuomo may run especially if he doesn't seek a third term

If De Blasio goes back on his campaign promise to serve out his full term he may run.

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6 minutes ago, NYrepublican said:

@vcczar There is a chance that Cuomo may run especially if he doesn't seek a third term

If De Blasio goes back on his campaign promise to serve out his full term he may run.

This isn't my list. This is theirs. I think Cuomo will run. De Blasio won't. 

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4 minutes ago, vcczar said:

Nate Silver and 538 proposed the following Democrats as possible candidates for 2020:

  • Bernie Sanders
  • Elizabeth Warren
  • Joe Biden
  • Kamala Harris
  • Kirsten Gillibrand
  • Tim Ryan
  • Amy Klobuchar
  • Cory Booker
  • Michelle Obama
  • Al Franken
  • Deval Patrick
  • Hillary Clinton
  • Eric Garcetti
  • Steve Bullock
  • Dwayne Johnson
  • John Hickenlooper
  • Jason Kander
  • Chris Murphy
  • Sherrod Brown
  • Roy Cooper
  • Kasim Reed
  • Bill de Blasio
  • Mark Zuckerberg
  • Mitch Landrieu
  • Mark Cuban
  • Martin O'Malley
  • Al Gore
  • Jeff Merkley
  • John Kerry
  • Julian Castro.

What are your thoughts? Who is missing? Who of these would you support? Who are the great, decent, and bad candidates?

Understand that I have respect for some of Michelle Obama's activism, and putting with a lot of abuse from many pundits, politicians, and commentators just because they didn't like her husband being in the White House at the time, but I must ask, soberly and seriously, outside countries like the Philippines or Argentina, is being a former First Lady as largely the major and dominant source of political experience (which was not the case for Hillary Clinton, admittedly) considered sufficient to float Presidential ambitions of one's own?

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@vcczar Understand, I didn't think it would be a flattering example to compare her to a much less politically experienced candidate winning on charisma and name recognition as major factors by comparing her to Trump. Hence my question, which is meant to be insightful, not disrespectful, mind.

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@Patine Michelle is quite personable much more so than Secretary Clinton

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Just now, NYrepublican said:

@Patine Michelle is quite personable much more so than Secretary Clinton

I know. Hence my point was her charisma was far better than her political experience. But, that's why some might bring up Trump as a comparison in that regard too, who is also quite personable (in a different way, but it's there), but also had never previously held a government post with officially stated powers and duties.

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35 minutes ago, Patine said:

I know. Hence my point was her charisma was far better than her political experience. But, that's why some might bring up Trump as a comparison in that regard too, who is also quite personable (in a different way, but it's there), but also had never previously held a government post with officially stated powers and duties.

I think you make an excellent point here, one that I tend to agree with. I love Michelle Obama, however, I think political experience is important for the highest office in the United States.

I enjoyed this early thought experiment that they did. Personally, my picks would be Gillibrand, Harris, Hickenlooper, Bullock, and Franken, in that order.

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2 hours ago, vcczar said:

Nate Silver and 538 proposed the following Democrats as possible candidates for 2020:

  • Bernie Sanders [I think he ends up not running, mainly because of his age.]
  • Elizabeth Warren [She ends up not running, because of her anxiety.]
  • Joe Biden [He doesn't run because of his age.]
  • Kamala Harris [She doesn't run, because she wants to stay in the Senate longer.]
  • Kirsten Gillibrand [She runs, but doesn't do very well in the primary, because the voters are tired of NYers]
  • Tim Ryan [He doesn't run, since he's a Rep. and has little chance to do well. He also wants to succeed Pelosi.]
  • Amy Klobuchar [She might run, but not if Al Franken does.]
  • Cory Booker [He runs, and could feasibly get nominated.]
  • Michelle Obama [She doesn't run, and never holds political office.]
  • Al Franken [He might get pushed to run if the field is weak. He doesn't want to run. He won't run if Klobuchar runs. If he runs. He wins primary and presidency.]
  • Deval Patrick [He won't run, and own't do well. Name recognition has disappeared.]
  • Hillary Clinton [She won't run.]
  • Eric Garcetti [He might run, but won't do well.]
  • Steve Bullock [He won't run, because he can't win the primary.]
  • Dwayne Johnson [He won't run.]
  • John Hickenlooper [He might run, but won't do well in the primary.]
  • Jason Kander [He won't run yet.]
  • Chris Murphy [He might run, but probably won't since a New Englander won't win reluctant Trump voters.]
  • Sherrod Brown [I think it's 50/50 if he runs. If he runs, he might win.]
  • Roy Cooper [Can't win a primary. Won't run.]
  • Kasim Reed [No name recognition]
  • Bill de Blasio [Wouldn't even win the NY primary. Won't run.]
  • Mark Zuckerberg [Not after the Russia-Facebook drama]
  • Mitch Landrieu [Can't win the primaries. Won't run.]
  • Mark Cuban [He might run, but won't do well.]
  • Martin O'Malley [He might run, but won't do well.]
  • Al Gore [Won't run]
  • Jeff Merkley [Will run if Bernie Sanders doesn't run. Could win primaries, but might not be able to beat Trump. Not the right persona to take him on.]
  • John Kerry [Too old. Won't run.]
  • Julian Castro. [He hasn't done anything to gain name recognition since Obama left office. Won't run.]

What are your thoughts? Who is missing? Who of these would you support? Who are the great, decent, and bad candidates?

Here are my thoughts in the quote above. As you can see, I don't think most of them will run. I think some people I can't think of might run. 

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Idk what's up with Sherrod Brown. I know you like him and all but I doubt hes gonna run just because of him not being a bigger figure in the party.

And as an Ohioan, I can guarantee you hes getting the boot in 2018. Hard to run if you don't hold a politica-- nevermind.

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1 minute ago, ThePotatoWalrus said:

Idk what's up with Sherrod Brown. I know you like him and all but I doubt hes gonna run just because of him not being a bigger figure in the party.

And as an Ohioan, I can guarantee you hes getting the boot in 2018. Hard to run if you don't hold a politica-- nevermind.

I'd say he has a 50-50 shot of winning reelection. Depends on how he campaigns. 

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I'm going to analyze this list and order it by who I would want to run and would vote for in a primary. I'm an independent, mind you, and live in a state that (currently) has closed primaries. This will be the first election I will vote in. I will only vote in the Democratic primaries if there's a candidate I'm passionate about, but let's be honest, not voting at all is antithetical to my personal belief system, literally every third party is very ideologically extreme, and only way I'm not voting Democratic in the general is if the nominees are Susan Collins/Lisa Murkowski vs. Anthony Weiner/Nancy Pelosi.

People I want to run, and would switch my party registration to vote for in a primary

  1. Al Gore (I love this man so much)
  2. Al Franken (I hope he runs and wins, and think he would)
  3. Elizabeth Warren (She could win the primaries but the general would be close; she could win though, definitely has better favorables than Hillary, plus a strong economic message and her only controversy is completely manufactured by the MAGA crowd)
  4. Kamala Harris (I like her but Sandernistas don't which is an issue, plus Trump would slam her for being from California, which isn't part of "real America" despite being home to 12% of Americans and having a bigger population than Canada)
  5. Joe Biden (His age might be an issue but he'd absolutely destroy Trump in the general, and would probably beat Pence too)
  6. Julian Castro (He could be the next Obama but he needs to win an election to something beforehand)
  7. Jason Kander (He REALLY needs to win an election in 2018 if he's going to be viable in 2020 but I love him anyway)
  8. Chris Murphy (He's cool and young but also a boring white dude from solidly-liberal Connecticut)

People I'm lukewarm about (wouldn't switch party registration but would have no problem supporting in the general

  1. Kirsten Gillibrand (meh boring New York liberal but also really strong on sexual assault issues which is extremely admirable to me)
  2. Amy Klobuchar (she's from Wisconsin which could win the rust belt but she doesn't seem super charismatic)
  3. Cory Booker (Super establishment guy but he's got charisma)
  4. Steve Bullock (I highly doubt he runs, or if he does, that he wins a primary, let alone the primaries. Democratic Kasich)
  5. Sherrod Brown (I'm not certain he'll win re-election, plus I don't understand his appeal because, to me, he's a male clone of Elizabeth Warren, except extremely boring)
  6. Roy Cooper (I don't think he'll run, plus he's also boring, but maybe that's what we'll want after the Trump presidency)

People I personally like but think would lose a general so I hope they don't run

  1. Hillary Clinton (I relate to her wonkishness and love of policy but she'd lose a general and also I don't like her reluctance to support gay marriage and the "superpredator" comment from 1996, and I doubt she'd run again)
  2. Jeff Merkley (why the hell would he run, plus he'd lose the general, he's as liberal as McGovern [though I don't think a landslide loss on the scale of 1972 is possible if his opponent is Trump and the political climate is at least as polarized as it is today])

People I despise but would still vote for in a general against Trump or Pence

  1. Bernie Sanders (ugh I hate this man's phony guts but the youths would elect him over Trump and he'd be at least marginally better, just get used to saying "President Ted Cruz" or "President Tom Cotton" when 2025 rolls around)
  2. Dwayne Johnson (??? is he even a Democrat?)
  3. Bill de Blasio (eeeeeewwwwww but better than Trump)
  4. Mark Zuckerberg (eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeewwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww but at least he's not a terrible person)
  5. Martin O'Malley (I have a personal vendetta against him for beating my grandma's boss/family friend Bob Ehrlich in '06, but I could absolve that decade-long grudge if Trump or Pence is his opponent)
  6. Mark Cuban (He's not a Democrat and is too friendly to the business community to win as one)
  7. Eric Garcetti (I have a serious problem with mayors running for President)

People who won't run

  1. Tim Ryan (he's a Rep, literally one person has gone straight from the House to the Presidency, and even he was Senator-elect at the time)
  2. Michelle Obama (I adore her and if she ran she'd jump straight up to the top column but I am 10,000% sure she will not run under any circumstances whatsoever, and I respect her for that)
  3. John Hickenlooper (If he runs for anything in 2020, it'll be as the running mate of John Kasich if that unity bid pans out)
  4. John Kerry (Why would he run??)

People I, a guy who has devoted 2 years and thousands of dollars (so far, probably a hundred thousand dollars and a better part of a decade before I'm done with my education) to study politics, and who pays attention to this stuff for fun, know little or nothing about (so they won't run)

  • Deval Patrick (beyond that he was, at some point, Governor of Massachusetts, I know nothing about him. Except that he works at Bain Capital, which will go over real well with literally no one in the Democratic party)
  • Kasim Reed (isn't he a basketball player? nope that's Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf. I have no idea who this even is)
  • Mitch Landrieu (I feel like he's from Louisiana...)

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18 minutes ago, ThePotatoWalrus said:

Who's that one Democrat who admitted to being a Communist? I think he had something to do with New York.

He should run. I'd vote for him.

If Mickey Mouse was mayor the crime rate would still have dropped it had nothing to do with De Blasio

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3 hours ago, ThePotatoWalrus said:

Who's that one Democrat who admitted to being a Communist? I think he had something to do with New York.

He should run. I'd vote for him.

Except that VERY few Americans even seem to know what Communism even remotely IS anymore...

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  • Bernie Sanders [too old, I doubt he'd run in 2020]
  • Elizabeth Warren [I can see her running]
  • Joe Biden [too old to seriously run in 2020]
  • Kamala Harris [I see her running. In fact she might get Clinton's support]
  • Kirsten Gillibrand [another possible Clinton candidate]
  • Tim Ryan [he might, but his base "white working class" would be far too small to win]
  • Amy Klobuchar [Maybe, but again at this point too many possible Clinton backers]
  • Cory Booker [I feel he won't if Murphy runs. ]
  • Michelle Obama[ there will be a draft Her movement, but i doubt she will win in a crowded field, filled with much more experienced Candidates]
  • Al Franken [Yeah. He says no, but progessives are saying yes]
  • Deval Patrick [His time at bain will haunt him]
  • Hillary Clinton [She won't. Let alone she shouldn't]
  • Eric Garcetti [I love him, but I doubt the nation is willing to elect a mayor- even if it is LA]
  • Steve Bullock [like him. I think he won't win due to not being left enough on some issues, but will be a solid VP pick]
  • Dwayne Johnson[ he's a republican]
  • John Hickenlooper [he might run, but he won't win the nomination. I doubt Democrats are willing to back a man that hintedf at a unity ticket after 4 years of Trump]
  • Jason Kander [he needs to win an election before running]
  • Chris Murphy [will run if Booker isn't running]
  • Sherrod Brown [He might be the best candidate to win the 2016 Bernie voters.]
  • Roy Cooper [maybe. I'm not sure how he'll do. He's From a state where the GoP isn't cooperating, so he can emphasize "this isn't just Trump" in down ballet races. ]
  • Kasim Reed [He's a mayor of a much smaller city, and declined to run for governor. I doubt he'd run]
  • Bill de Blasio [Mayor, but of the largest city. I can see him possibly running. His universal prek might do well to give him an edge.]
  • Mark Zuckerberg [can we seriously stop trying to make this a thing! ]
  • Mitch Landrieu[ mayor of an even smaller city. And if somehow he won the primary, his removal of Confederate statues will haunt him]
  • Mark Cuban [He's more libertarian than democratic.]
  • Martin O'Malley [He might, but he's been so far removed from politics voters will have to ask themselves, "who?"]
  • Al Gore [ he's old. Plus why would he? ]
  • Jeff Merkley [Another possible Bernie style candidate. I can see him run.]
  • John Kerry [Again old, and I doubt he'd put himself through the stress of running a campaign again]
  • Julian Castro.

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11 hours ago, vcczar said:

Nate Silver and 538 proposed the following Democrats as possible candidates for 2020:

  • Bernie Sanders
  • Elizabeth Warren
  • Joe Biden
  • Kamala Harris
  • Kirsten Gillibrand
  • Tim Ryan
  • Amy Klobuchar
  • Cory Booker
  • Michelle Obama
  • Al Franken
  • Deval Patrick
  • Hillary Clinton
  • Eric Garcetti
  • Steve Bullock
  • Dwayne Johnson
  • John Hickenlooper
  • Jason Kander
  • Chris Murphy
  • Sherrod Brown
  • Roy Cooper
  • Kasim Reed
  • Bill de Blasio
  • Mark Zuckerberg
  • Mitch Landrieu
  • Mark Cuban
  • Martin O'Malley
  • Al Gore
  • Jeff Merkley
  • John Kerry
  • Julian Castro.

What are your thoughts? Who is missing? Who of these would you support? Who are the great, decent, and bad candidates?

jeff boss.

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38 minutes ago, Patine said:

Who?

He's a 9/11 conspiracy theorist…

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He'd definitely be an amusing character at a debate.

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19 minutes ago, NYrepublican said:

He'd definitely be an amusing character at a debate.

"This debate isn't really happening; that's just what the government wants you to think. The debate hall is an illusion in our minds produced by Schroedinger's cat lapping up milk which spilled onto the square circle where Prester John slipped."

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Here are the ones I think could run. 

  • Bernie Sanders - Runs if no credible progressive runs, but likely sit out because of age 
  • Elizabeth Warren - Will run and good shot at winning nomination
  • Joe Biden - May decide to run at first but I think age will get to him and he'll drop out early
  • Kamala Harris - May decide to run if polls show she would do well
  • Kirsten Gillibrand - Has denied she'll run many times, but I think she ends up running
  • Cory Booker - Will run and has a shot as winning nomination 
  • John Hickenlooper - May run, but too moderate and won't get anywhere
  • Sherrod Brown - Not good name recognition right now, but if he runs and wins nomination, I have no doubts he will win big in 2020
  • Martin O'Malley-He'll run again, but probably won't even make it to the primaries
  • Jeff Merkley - Could run, definitely a strong progressive for democrats but name recognition and charisma is lacking 

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5 minutes ago, MysteryKnight said:

Here are the ones I think could run. 

  • John Hickenlooper - May run, but too moderate and won't get anywhere

It's a real shame that moderation, or even common sense and a sense of proportion, and any willingness for compromise and cooperation with political opponents, are so vilified and considered such sins by the two major U.S. Parties. One of many reasons I would sincerely like to see the U.S. party Duopoly destroyed utterly as a political institution, along with it's iron grip on power.

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38 minutes ago, MysteryKnight said:

Here are the ones I think could run. 

  • Bernie Sanders - Runs if no credible progressive runs, but likely sit out because of age 
  • Elizabeth Warren - Will run and good shot at winning nomination
  • Joe Biden - May decide to run at first but I think age will get to him and he'll drop out early
  • Kamala Harris - May decide to run if polls show she would do well
  • Kirsten Gillibrand - Has denied she'll run many times, but I think she ends up running
  • Cory Booker - Will run and has a shot as winning nomination 
  • John Hickenlooper - May run, but too moderate and won't get anywhere
  • Sherrod Brown - Not good name recognition right now, but if he runs and wins nomination, I have no doubts he will win big in 2020
  • Martin O'Malley-He'll run again, but probably won't even make it to the primaries
  • Jeff Merkley - Could run, definitely a strong progressive for democrats but name recognition and charisma is lacking 

Sherrod Brown depends if he win relection to the senate.

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23 hours ago, Patine said:

I know. Hence my point was her charisma was far better than her political experience. But, that's why some might bring up Trump as a comparison in that regard too, who is also quite personable (in a different way, but it's there), but also had never previously held a government post with officially stated powers and duties.

but she not the type of person that run for office first lady i do admit she is good at (fashion wise f minus) first lady but not a office. I dont see her running for office she dont want to Obama is s still young can make a run for the governor manison if he wants.

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