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RI Democrat

"Jacindamania" in New Zealand

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New Zealand's election this weekend is looking surprisingly competitive after a long period of National dominating in the polls:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/sep/19/new-zealands-general-election-all-you-need-to-know

This seems like it might be a fun scenario, but I'm not sure how to tackle it in terms of the engine. New Zealand has MMP, but even the K4E engine wouldn't necessarily provide a very accurate representation because there is a hard cap of 120 seats in NZ, i.e. there are no overhang seats. Also, I seem to recall from attempting NZ scenarios on K4E in the past that there are sometimes small parties that run much stronger in just a handful of electorates, e.g. wherever Winston Peters used to have his seat, and replicating this with the math of how primary/secondary votes in K4E work can be difficult.

On the other hand, simply doing it in PMI and creating an Excel sheet to convert percentages to seats wouldn't necessarily work either, because voters do actually cast two separate votes - one for a party and one for a local MP - and there is sometimes a significant difference between the two totals. I'd probably have to write a more complex Excel formula that would derive the party vote from the constituency vote without simply replicating the numbers from the constituency vote (e.g. maybe make the Greens run 3-4% ahead of their constituency totals in the party vote).

Thoughts?

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6 hours ago, RI Democrat said:

New Zealand's election this weekend is looking surprisingly competitive after a long period of National dominating in the polls:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/sep/19/new-zealands-general-election-all-you-need-to-know

This seems like it might be a fun scenario, but I'm not sure how to tackle it in terms of the engine. New Zealand has MMP, but even the K4E engine wouldn't necessarily provide a very accurate representation because there is a hard cap of 120 seats in NZ, i.e. there are no overhang seats. Also, I seem to recall from attempting NZ scenarios on K4E in the past that there are sometimes small parties that run much stronger in just a handful of electorates, e.g. wherever Winston Peters used to have his seat, and replicating this with the math of how primary/secondary votes in K4E work can be difficult.

On the other hand, simply doing it in PMI and creating an Excel sheet to convert percentages to seats wouldn't necessarily work either, because voters do actually cast two separate votes - one for a party and one for a local MP - and there is sometimes a significant difference between the two totals. I'd probably have to write a more complex Excel formula that would derive the party vote from the constituency vote without simply replicating the numbers from the constituency vote (e.g. maybe make the Greens run 3-4% ahead of their constituency totals in the party vote).

Thoughts?

Frankly, what it comes down to is that, saying this once again, @admin_270 needs to put adding electoral systems for legislative bodies beyond FPTP as a FAR higher priority than he has. His stated priorities for updates (including no commitment at all for an ETA on any non-FPTP legislative electoral system) effectively closes off the VAST MAJORITY of modern electoral scenario options. This sense of priority seems inexplicable to me, and strikes me as self-sabotaging as a policy for TheorySpark.

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Well, it could be that the customer base for these games extends fairly far beyond those of us who post here and create scenarios, and that they are mostly American, Canadian, and British users who are happy just to play the "official" scenarios and/or make their own small changes through the built-in editors. I don't know anything about what kind of budget 270soft has and if it is the sole source of income for Anthony and whoever else is involved, but if we represent a small niche within their broader market, catering to our interests may not be especially cost-effective or profitable.

(Dammit, now you've got me implicitly defending modern capitalism.)

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Update: Apparently NZ has in fact allowed 1 or 2 overhang seats in recent elections. Though I recall ending up with something like 10-12 overhang seats whenever I tried to make a New Zealand scenario for K4E.

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