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The 2016 primary season has finally kicked off! For the Republicans, infamous businessman Donald Trump leads by a very large margin, with establishment politicians left far, far in the dust. Outsiders like Rand Paul and surprisingly Michael Bloomberg hope to capitalize on this same anti-establishment sentiment in the Republican primaries, but candidates like Cruz and Kasich are hoping to bring some reason and policy to the field. 

The Democrats are unsurprisingly led by Sec. Hillary Clinton, who has been the favorite since Obama barely bested her in 2008. She has built up a sizable war campaign in her slumber, and she's going all out. Sen. Bernie Sanders appears to be the main opposition, and is fighting far out to the left of Clinton. Some believe that his main goal is to drive Clinton further to the left, but most pundits believe that Sanders will fail to win even a single primary against the Clinton behemoth. Vice President Biden has not yet decided to run, but sources say he's erring on allowing Clinton to represent the party. Minor candidates Martin O'Malley and Jim Webb also kinda exist.

The field is just kicking off, but pundits are predicting a Trump vs Clinton general election race at the moment. The election would be a dead heat. Could Clinton be the first Democrat since Truman to win the office after two or more terms of another President of the same party? Could Trump become the first President elected without any form of political or military experience whatsoever?

What does the primary season hold for us this year? We here at 270Soft News intend to find out. Thanks for checking in. 

Mr. Donald J Trump (NY) UNCLAIMED Default On
Gov. Jeb Bush (FL)  UNCLAIMED Default On
Sen. Ted Cruz (TX) Claimed by @Reagan04
Sen. Marco Rubio (FL) UNCLAIMED Default On
Gov. John Kasich (OH) Claimed by @Kingthero
Sen. Rand Paul (KY) Claimed by @TeamEhmling
Gov. Michael Bloomberg (NY) Claimed by @NYrepublican
Gov. Chris Christie (NJ) UNCLAIMED Default On
Gov. Mike Huckabee (AR) UNCLAIMED Default Off
Mrs. Carly Fiorina (SC) UNCLAIMED Default Off
Mr. Ben Carson (MI)  UNCLAIMED Default Off
Sen. Rick Santorum (PA)  UNCLAIMED Default Off
Gov. Bobby Jindal (LA)  UNCLAIMED Default Off
Sen. Lindsey Graham (SC) UNCLAIMED Default Off

Sec. Hillary (NY) Claimed by @michaelsdiamonds
Sen. Bernie Sanders (VT) Claimed by @Sami

Gov. Martin O'Malley (MD) UNCLAIMED Default On
Sen. Jim Webb (VA) UNCLAIMED Default On
Vice President Joe Biden (DE) UNCLAIMED Default Undecided




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Oct 8th, 2016

The primary season for both major nominations has well and truly kicked off. Trump and his campaign have lost a little ground according to a few polls put out by Gallup, but no candidate has risen as a major challenger to Trump as of yet. In fact, while Trump spent the majority of his time campaigning across the U.S, his competition primarily focused in the earlier primary states, their own home states, or did a lot of fundraising. There was very little movement outside of Trump controlling the race as the frontrunner, where he can be expected to campaign elsewhere and extend his lead. 

The first Republican debate is will be held on the 28th of this month, and by then we are hoping to see a clear challenger to Trump emerge from the scattered field to take him on and earn the most screen time during the debate. Right now, there's a definite hierarchy to the candidates. Trump is far, far above all others, while he's distantly followed by Rubio, Bush, and Cruz. Bloomberg, Paul, Christie, and Kasich take up the far rear, owing to their more fringe views, lack of national visibility, or personal image. 

Trump has lost ground in Iowa, but no candidate has really picked it up. In fact, EVERY candidate lost some level of support among the state, and undecided voters are at an astounding high of 25%. The same trend follows in New Hampshire, where Trump has lost a little ground and undecideds have skyrocketed to 22%. 

The Democratic field is much less competitive at the moment. Senator Sanders is still far off from the heels of Sec. Clinton, and Clinton's lead has extended nationally from the week before. Sanders has made up a little ground in the early Iowa Caucus, but not nearly enough to combat the rise of Clinton in states such as New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina where she has only went up. However, the party elite has shown signs of favorability to the Sanders despite him not being a Democrat, and the Sanders campaign has met numerous times with Sec. John Kerry, who is expected to endorse the far left Senator sometime within the next week. 

The early Democratic states are far more confusing as far as polling goes, as most pollsters are only polling with the inclusion of Vice President Joe Biden. Where these Biden supporters go when election day comes will make all the difference in who wins the Democratic nomination, but most pollsters are safely assuming that they will go with Clinton over the more progressive Sanders. 

As far as general election predictions this week, we saw a very major shift towards the Democrats. This is likely due to the Obama administration's negotiations on the Trans-Pacific Partnership and response to the Roseburg, Oregon shooting. 


Week 2(2).png

Week 2(3).png

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Oct 15th, 2016

Another week, but it's more of the same. Trump has lost a little ground, but he's made up for it in big ways in the earlier states. Cruz has gained enough to become to primary challenger to Trump in national polling, but to really cement his place he needs to gain more support in the early primary states where Trump leads by large margins. Kasich and Bloomberg appear to be getting some support, but the establishment by and large supports the supposed "rising star" of the Republican party, Florida Senator Marco Rubio. 

Cruz and Trump are tying in different polls for who will win the Texas primary in March, which is a good sign for Cruz who until now was expected to lose by a large margin. John Kasich, while not growing his support in Ohio, is second to a stumbling Trump. 

For the Democrats, there was an upset on the debate stage just as there was 8 years prior. Hillary Clinton came under fire from both of her primary opponents for her close ties to the banking industry, and while she recovered well it definitely made it's mark on primary voters. Jim Webb was declared the victor of the debate by polling, though the debate was incredibly close between him and Sanders. Nationally, Clinton has lost some ground to a rising Sanders on the left, and to a rising Webb from the right. 

While Clinton may have stumbled in the debate, she's anything but lost ground in the primary states. Likely voters are 10% more likely to support her today than they were a week ago, which some claim is due to the ad flurry put out by the Clinton campaign in the first four primary states. Clinton also gained massive ground in New Hampshire and Nevada, but lost some in South Carolina to a rising Webb. Sanders continues to grow more popular among the party elite, and John Kerry came out and publicly endorsed him yesterday. Pundits are predicting this will be the first in many establishment politicians who endorse Sanders because they can't stomach the lack of integrity of Clinton. 

General election polls are still showing gains for the Democrats, and some are even predicting that traditionally Republican states such as Arizona, Missouri, and Montana will be in play for the Democrats. 

DemDebate Results.png




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