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daons

2017 UK Election (adjusted polling)

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I've had a play about with the polling shift data in the percentages file and have found a way to update the polling a small Conservative lead to reflect the opinion polls but with undecideds able to cause a hung parliament easily.

I'll need to do a few tests to see how it goes but here is a screenshot of where it looks.

 

uk 2017 adjusted polling.PNG

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9 minutes ago, daons said:

I've had a play about with the polling shift data in the percentages file and have found a way to update the polling a small Conservative lead to reflect the opinion polls but with undecideds able to cause a hung parliament easily.

I'll need to do a few tests to see how it goes but here is a screenshot of where it looks.

 

uk 2017 adjusted polling.PNG

This would make the scenario so much easier the best I could do as labor was to hold the conservatives down to 330 seats and gain 1 seat.

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1 hour ago, republicaninnyc said:

This would make the scenario so much easier the best I could do as labor was to hold the conservatives down to 330 seats and gain 1 seat.

In fairness, that is a reflection of reality. The Tories ran the worst campaign I have ever seen and they still only ended up losing about thirty seats. A Labour victory is meant to be difficult.

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Just now, JDrakeify said:

In fairness, that is a reflection of reality. The Tories ran the worst campaign I have ever seen and they still only ended up losing about thirty seats. A Labour victory is meant to be difficult.

Yes but not that difficult May should not  be starting with so many safe seats.

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@JDrakeify the conservatives stayed in Power and formed a coalition with the DUP

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2 minutes ago, republicaninnyc said:

@JDrakeify the conservatives stayed in Power and formed a coalition with the DUP

Im fully aware of that, and that was after an absolutely terrible campaign. If Labour can only 260 seats in these circumstances, then the PMI scenario seems to have gotten it about right. 

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1 minute ago, JDrakeify said:

Im fully aware of that, and that was after an absolutely terrible campaign. If Labour can only 260 seats in these circumstances, then the PMI scenario seems to have gotten it about right. 

I could only get 230

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7 minutes ago, Presidentinsertname said:

hope about ukip?

UKIP collapsed this election

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Just now, Presidentinsertname said:

what h

what was your best?

I haven't yet played as UKIP

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Hopefully you can do it better than me. I tried adjusting the polls and I still get a Conservative majority.

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I'm going to try adjusting some of the personal/party attributes and leaving the polls alone, given that the Tories were in fact way ahead when the election was called. For example:

- Increase the starting $ for the non-Conservative parties so that they have more resources to take advantage of possible Conservative weaknesses
- Increase Corbyn's leadership from 2 to 3
- Change the Charisma ratings for Corbyn and May so that they're about equal, again to account for Corbyn performing better than expected on the campaign trail and May proving somewhat ineffective

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Not sure what happened for me, but was polling at around 200-220 the whole way through the campaign - managed to get big momentum during the very last few days and ended up with a very close hung parliament!

 

June 6th Polls.PNG

June 8th Results.PNG

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Just done a few more tests of my amended polling scenario, I have changed Corbyn's charisma from 2 to 3 given his big rallies and added three new events.

1. Conservative social care plans unveiled - gives -2 momentum to the Conservatives

2. U-turn on the social care plans, gives -2 momentum to the Conservatives

3. Theresa May refuses to debate after Corbyn announces he will attend, gives -2 momentum to the Conservatives.

However I have managed to still win big as the Conservatives if you campaign well but I managed a big win with Corbyn by exploiting the new events and getting the endorsements.

Here is the link to the scenario, all feedback is appreciated :)

2017 - United Kingdom (adjusted polling)

Labour landslide (adjusted polling scenario).PNG

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I played 1 game, and this is the clusterf**k that came out of it:

Election night results:

https://gyazo.com/c0396208a16b5c8c6ea6d77fe384774b

 

Resulting Parliament:

https://gyazo.com/4a05a603237a17cfcea58e42921891d0

 

LAB: 320 seats 44.8%

CON: 256 seats 35.7%

SNP: 45 seats 3.9% (around 39.2% in Scotland)

LIB: 13 seats 11.9%

DUP: 10 seats 0.6%

SF: 7 seats 0.5%

UKIP: 2 seats 1.3%

PC: 1 seat 0.6%

GRN: 0 seats 0.7%

1 IND

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